[JAKEPEAVY21]

Hey everyone, have a bit of a dilemma here, need some help.

On Friday, October 28th, a poster on the SBR Forum provided me with the fade opportunity of a lifetime, comparing a hype machine who has fought absolutely no one to one of the top three MMA fighters of all time. He has made this false equivalence, determined this pick to be a "lock," and gone so far as to consider flying across the world to place this bet, as if the linesmakers are not aware of how "short" the odds seem to the average mook such as this poster.

My question is, how much should I fade this with? My entire life savings? Should I sell some possessions first to make even more money, or perhaps steal money from some family members/local businesses to boost the bet amount? Also, where should I retire afterwards?

Any advice is appreciated, thanks in advance.

How's that Arizona Cardinals receiving group doing?

[magpie878]

I also feel like you could bet Paddy now and by the time the fight comes, hedge for profit on both sides.. odds will get uglier.

[arie1985]

I hope you Win and you probably will, but just keep this in mind. In MMA, ANYTHING can happen. Back in 2009 I felt the same way about a young and up and coming Jon Jones. This was way back when the Books were pretty terrible at pricing MMA odds. I think I got Jones at -140 or something like that vs Matt Hamill. I had him in several parlays and Round Robins,.... I had several hundred dollars on him. He got called on a bogus DQ that the Ref gave him no warnings about. I was PISSED!!!!

I've also been burned on other MMA bets as well but that one stung the most because he was dominating the fight and I would have won a quite a bit if it wasn't for the damn ref.

Thanks for sharing your experience, it's extremely helpful!

One thing I'd like to say about main events - in 2009 the social media wasn't as globalized as it is now - if a ref would decide to make a questionnable call he would be "crucified"... literally...

The social media has changed so many things that it's difficult to rig these events- however secret stuff between players, coaches etc. - this is something we can never know - only the "markets" are the best source to spot something like this.

[arie1985]

With a zero percent chance of losing, the correct way to maximize earnings is to bet as much as absolutely possible. By only betting $10,000 instead of a lot more, you are actually losing a lot of value and hurting your income.

There is the possible risk that the fight is canceled, and you lose all expenses.

Honestly I am a bit concerned about the fight being cancelled, and likewise many things could happen in-between as well ... that's why I hesitate to go ahead and take it... because if the fight was taking place tomorrow I'd have placed the bet but since it's just too long until then - it's hard to say if the "facts" we have today would be the same facts we would have tomorrow - and YES, likewise - what if this event gets cancelled? There are lots of cancellations in the MMA.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Honestly I am a bit concerned about the fight being cancelled, and likewise many things could happen in-between as well ... that's why I hesitate to go ahead and take it... because if the fight was taking place tomorrow I'd have placed the bet but since it's just too long until then - it's hard to say if the "facts" we have today would be the same facts we would have tomorrow - and YES, likewise - what if this event gets cancelled? There are lots of cancellations in the MMA.

If the fight gets cancelled, you get your money back...not sure why that is a concern?

[arie1985]

If the fight gets cancelled, you get your money back...not sure why that is a concern?

You have to pay fees to buy Crypto that you'd use for deposits etc.

[lonegambler23]

On the 10th of December 2022 Paddy the baddy is going to fight against Jared Gordon.
I've watched them both, but especially Paddy - Paddy is the new Khabib "The Eagle" normagomedov or however you spell his last name (it's like asking me to spell Arnold Sch...... whatever you spell there lol)....

Anwyay Paddy Pimblett is a beast, he's an animal in the cage, Jared Gordon has 0 chances against this guy, 0 chances, it might be over in 10 seconds or less of round 1.

I don't mind to "invest" a big chunk like $10,000 and put it all on the Baddy ...

The trouble is the event is too far away in terms of times, and most bookies don't even have it open and the odds will definitely change against me if I wait....

So I'm thinking, what to do?

The bookies in the UK have it open, especially the betting shops, I can easily go from 1 shop to another all across London, bet £300 on the Baddy in each shop and save those slips and cash them later in December but it's hectic ....

Also some crypto sites have it available but I think I'd be limited to $500 - $1000 max on it.

$10,000 on the Baddy now = $5800 winnings

Trust me, 2-3 weeks from now, $10,000 on the Baddy will yield maybe $3,000 or less, no way they are offering so much on the Baddy now, the bookies just haven't set the odds right yet since the event is in December...

I don't want to lose this opportunity on the one hand, but on the other hand what's the best thing to do? Wait 1-2 more weeks until Stake opens it and then easily bet it all in Stake? (Stake is happily accepting large UFC bets, they are one of the sponsors of the UFC)... I'm just worried the odds will drop to 1.4 or so, so just "sacrifice" $1,000 here for the sake of the peace of mind I can use 1 single site for this large bet?

What do you think?

i think this is a dumb bet

[arie1985]

I don't want to lose this opportunity on the one hand, but on the other hand what's the best thing to do? Wait 1-2 more weeks until Stake opens it and then easily bet it all in Stake? (Stake is happily accepting large UFC bets, they are one of the sponsors of the UFC)... I'm just worried the odds will drop to 1.4 or so, so just "sacrifice" $1,000 here for the sake of the peace of mind I can use 1 single site for this large bet?

I take back what I said about Stake - they don't take large bets if you win, they would limit you faster than Bet365:



So basically if you want to bet it big you have to use a betting agent, use Pinnacle or Fairlay and then you won't be limited but these guys won't have it available now, gotta wait at least 2 (if not 3) weeks until it becomes available. Still, using a betting agent is also not my cup of tea - you have to rely on them to process you withdrawal ... looks like a bet to pass or I don't know what exactly to do - I had the impression Stake takes 5-6 digits on the UFC easily, and that makes me think their "High Rollers" might be shill accounts.....

They allowed me to bet yesterday on Cortes $930, I couldn't bet more, it wasn't possible, but I was able to bet extra by taking him on 3 way (him, the other or draw) but after winning $450+ they would surely now not allow me to bet even more than $500 on future main events, it's like the NBA - in the NBA they let me bet $100 max - that's it, Stake has limited me officially!

[Machba]

Don't do it
Paddy loses!

[Brandt Moat]

If your bank roll is 200k+, then maybe be 10k bet on a UFC fight. Social media has "NOT" slowed or stopped any kind of wrong doing in the octagon. They blatantly cheat and don't give an explanation. Not much done about it, and we move on to the next surprise fix. Sports are fixed BIG time! Best of luck betting a meat head. Those types get exposed when they get to the contenders. GL

[arie1985]

If your bank roll is 200k+, then maybe be 10k bet on a UFC fight. Social media has "NOT" slowed or stopped any kind of wrong doing in the octagon. They blatantly cheat and don't give an explanation. Not much done about it, and we move on to the next surprise fix. Sports are fixed BIG time! Best of luck betting a meat head. Those types get exposed when they get to the contenders. GL

Does Jared Gordon have something to show against Paddy? His last fight against Oliviera showed he has no weapons, so how can he win against a "meat head"?

[Brandt Moat]

Never said a word about this fight.

[arie1985]

Never said a word about this fight.

So can I ask what do you mean by "Best of luck betting a meat head"?

[TheMoneyShot]

If you feel very solid about a fighter... a match... go for it. Yes, anything can be rigged... the weirdest things can happen. But as strong as you feel about it... don't let anyone stop you.

[jjgold]

Look at the odds, it’s all you need to know

[Brandt Moat]

Yea, I guess ya you can.... Ya did. I think what you meant to say is, can I get an answer on what I meant by Meathead XXX. Simply, he will take a shit when he steps up. They are parading him around similar to Sugar. Squeezing the juice out before they cut it open, so to speak.I hopefully won't be banned and I will let ya know when I think he gets mopped. I like betting guys with better heads on their shoulders. I don't think "Paddy" is wound to tight. GL

So can I ask what do you mean by "Best of luck betting a meat head"?

[k13]

Paddy sucks and there's no guarantees in mma.

[yisman]

Paddy now -247

[lonegambler23]

so did u place the 10k? or just a fantasy play?

[arie1985]

so did u place the 10k? or just a fantasy play?

I didn't and I'm glad I didn't.

Paddy is trash.

Firstly with the Ariel Helwani incident, he's not a star in my eyes anymore.

Also the fight was rigged, he "won" but Jared Gordon was so much better.

Paddy is BS. Utter BS.

[TheMetsSuck]

False. Paddy has tons of potential. That other guy just tried to hold him and run the clock

[jjgold]

The fight seemed rigged

[texhooper]

Man so many people said dude is trash, this is a huge fade, etc. You fukked up by not following your heart my guy

[arie1985]

Man so many people said dude is trash, this is a huge fade, etc. You fukked up by not following your heart my guy

I'm okay with that, no worries.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

He clearly lost that fight and got a gift decision.

Anyone that is not a blinded fanboy could see that.

[jjgold]

Paddy is not even remotely a world class fighter

average at best

[yisman]

Judges weren't needed all night until the last 2 fights and naturally they screwed them both up.

Gordon and Ankalaev pretty clearly won, but the corrupt judges...

[GunShard]

Everyone should avoid betting on Paddy or you will lose money. Everyone got lucky on him and that luck will end.

[Allure]

I've watched them both, but especially Paddy - Paddy is the new Khabib "The Eagle" normagomedov or however you spell his last name

Tell us that you are a professional comedian since I don't think anyone in this world can be that mentally challenged to state that.

[Allure]

Paddy is not even remotely a world class fighter

average at best

His level is prelim fights tops. Him being on the main card let alone co main event is just Dana milking the hype train. Once that retard starts to lose and no-one gives a fukk about him, Dana will throw him away like a used condom. I wish someone would do the same to Dana so the sport doesn't turn into WWE which is where it's headed right now.

[arie1985]

Tell us that you are a professional comedian since I don't think anyone in this world can be that mentally challenged to state that.

I took it back, Alors on Danse.