1. #1
    stevenash
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    MLB future odds going forward

    This is something I do every season at the MLB AS break.

    Some years back I was involved in a good discussion, the topic being perceived value v. actual (real value)
    Long story short, perceived value is what the consumer thinks (in this case a futures wager) is worth, versus what it's worth actually.

    If one thinks the Mets are a good value to win the World Series at +700, that's perceived value.
    Personally I think that's shitty value as the true odds (see table below) are around +1300.

    For this thread I am using current odds presently posted at DraftKings sports book.
    I don't have the time to post tables from all the books, DK works just fine for this example.

    I have tons of personal data bases, some are my own creations, some I borrow from sources that know more about betting markets than me, and some sources I borrow from outright.
    (I'll always credit the outside sources, and make it point blank clear it's not my work, credibility and integrity means everything to me)

    For MLB futures, I have found the most accurate, and I mean deadly accurate source are the databases baseball-reference.com provides, and if I thought what they have to say wasn't worth it, if it wasn't all that, trust me, I would not be sharing all this with you all.

    The data is baseball-reference's, I tweaked this table by including DK's posted future prices, (column heading DK odds) the column heading "TRUE ODDS" are what I am referring to what BR.com believes the real odds are, I can convert moey lines into decimal odds etc. the column header WS% is what br.com believes the real percentage an individual team chances are.

    Current refers to current record, average refers to all things considered, what an individual teams final record will be, and that WINS column on the right, those are the o/u posted number of wins you can wager on at DK.
    Regarding over/under wins, Yankees and Dodgers may have locked it up by Labor Day, be careful there as they may be playing part timers, full time for a month.

    My takeaways from all this?
    BR feels there is tremendous all around in the Cards, as they feel they're just not going to win the NL Central, but win it going away. Usually they don't endorse chalk but this year they're pretty much saying Yankees take it all, with value to boot.
    I'll post the WC, odds, the division odds a little later as the afternoon progresses.

    Two final points, I am just sharing information that has been very kind to me in the past, I am not suggesting you tail or fade any of this.

    Finally, BR's method is thus:
    One thousand (1000) simulated games, based on each and every teams performance, up to the AS break, with rSOS factored in, and includes a regression to the mean value.











    Current Average
    Team DK Odds True Odds WS% W L W L Wins
    NL East
    1 Mets 700 1300 7.40% 58 35 97.4 64.6 97.5
    2 Braves 800 2170 4.60% 56 38 93.3 69.7 94.5
    3 Phillies 3500 4170 2.40% 49 43 88.4 73.6 86.5
    NL Central
    1 Cardinals 3500 3571 2.80% 50 44 89 73 86.5
    2 Brewers 1700 33333 0.30% 50 43 84.5 77.5 88,5
    NL West
    1 Dodgers 380 465 23.50% 60 30 104.8 57.2 103.5
    2 Padres 2200 6666 1.50% 52 42 86.3 75.7 90.5
    3 Giants 5000 5260 1.90% 48 43 86.2 75.8 86.5
    AL East
    1 Yankees 400 202 33.60% 64 28 108 54 104.5
    2 Rays 2800 3333 3.00% 51 41 88.3 73.7 87.5
    3 Blue Jays 1500 3225 3.10% 50 43 86.3 75.7 88.5
    4 Red Sox 3500 10000 1.00% 48 45 83.1 78.9 84.5
    AL Central
    1 Twins 5000 12500 0.80% 50 44 84.6 77.4 84.5
    2 White Sox 3000 9100 1.10% 46 46 83.1 78.9 85.5
    3 Guardians 15000 20000 0.50% 46 44 82.1 79.9 81.5
    AL West
    1 Astros 500 1040 9.60% 59 32 98.7 63.3 101.5
    2 Mariners 5000 3850 2.60% 51 42 88.1 73.9 86.5
    Points Awarded:

    Roscoe_Word gave stevenash 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    jjgold
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    I don’t think the Yankees are going to win because they could be stopped in a series with good pitching

    Nashy tremendous material

    Atlanta live

  3. #3
    johnnyvegas13
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    Nash u like cards to win the div at +150

    looling at 2h schedule looks pretty easy

  4. #4
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13 View Post
    Nash u like cards to win the div at +150

    looling at 2h schedule looks pretty easy
    Love The Cards at +210 to win the division.
    (It was +210 at 8am, unless that got bet down too)
    They got bet the fuk down from +5000 to +3500




    Current Average
    DK Odds True Odds Div DK W L W L Wins
    Central
    1 St. Louis 210 -280 73.90% 32.21% 50 44 89 73 86.5
    2 Milwaukee -150 280 26.10% 60.00% 50 43 84.5 77.5 88,5




    I love fading Boston to miss the playoffs at -115/+105
    LOVE that bet, they have a 30 percent chance to make the playoff and the book is offering you even money.
    Get real here.
    Boston ain't besting out Toronto, or Tampa Bay, or even Seattle.

    Here's the odds just to make the playoffs.



    Current Average
    Tm W L W L Postâ–¼
    Los Angeles Dodgers 60 30 104.8 57.2 >99.9%
    New York Yankees 64 28 108 54 >99.9%
    Houston Astros 59 32 98.7 63.3 99.80%
    New York Mets 58 35 97.4 64.6 99.60%
    Atlanta Braves 56 38 93.3 69.7 96.70%
    St. Louis Cardinals 50 44 89 73 82.50%
    Seattle Mariners 51 42 88.1 73.9 81.40%
    Tampa Bay Rays 51 41 88.3 73.7 79.40%
    Philadelphia Phillies 49 43 88.4 73.6 73.90%
    Toronto Blue Jays 50 43 86.3 75.7 64.90%
    Minnesota Twins 50 44 84.6 77.4 53.70%
    San Diego Padres 52 42 86.3 75.7 52.60%
    San Francisco Giants 48 43 86.2 75.8 52.10%
    Chicago White Sox 46 46 83.1 78.9 41.30%
    Milwaukee Brewers 50 43 84.5 77.5 40.50%
    Cleveland Guardians 46 44 82.1 79.9 33.30%
    Boston Red Sox 48 45 83.1 78.9 30.90%
    Baltimore Orioles 46 46 79.8 82.2 11.80%
    Texas Rangers 41 49 76.2 85.8 2.80%
    Miami Marlins 43 48 76.7 85.3 1.60%
    Los Angeles Angels 39 53 74.4 87.6 0.70%
    Colorado Rockies 43 50 72.8 90.2 0.40%
    Arizona Diamondbacks 40 52 72.3 89.7 0.10%
    Washington Nationals 31 63 56.9 105.1 <0.1%
    Chicago Cubs 35 57 67.4 94.6 <0.1%
    Cincinnati Reds 34 57 66.3 95.7 <0.1%
    Pittsburgh Pirates 39 54 65.1 96.9 <0.1%
    Detroit Tigers 37 55 65.3 96.7 <0.1%
    Kansas City Royals 36 56 64.9 97.1 <0.1%
    Oakland Athletics 32 61 60.8 101.2 <0.1%

  5. #5
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
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    Seattle with ALL the value here.

    Both to win the AL and the WS.

    The opportunity for equity is high here with the possiblity of selling back constantly and still locking in some gains.

  6. #6
    stevenash
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    Good eye Johnny, it's +150 now.
    Grab it at +150 still

  7. #7
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Seattle with ALL the value here.

    Both to win the AL and the WS.

    The opportunity for equity is high here with the possiblity of selling back constantly and still locking in some gains.
    I had the same thought earlier.

    Sox at 50/50 (pretty much) to make the playoff with a 30 percent chance of doing so?
    What am I missing here, 200 says they miss the playoffs.

  8. #8
    KVB
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    The difference is Seattle gets in the playoffs and they have the pitching to beat some teams. They seem built for playoffs to a degree.

    50-1 just dangles out there.

  9. #9
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    The difference is Seattle gets in the playoffs and they have the pitching to beat some teams. They seem built for playoffs to a degree.

    50-1 just dangles out there.
    Solid logic, plus I love their bench manager, Scott Servais is the best manager that nobody has heard of.
    Former catcher/GM, knows pitching inside out.

    Glad you dropped by.

  10. #10
    johnnyvegas13
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    Mets r gonna choke again deja vu again this year

    div winners will b

    braves

    carfs

    dodgers

  11. #11
    stevenash
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    ^
    Loser of the NL East gets the first Wild Card.

    Johnny, I just sent in Card (run line only) today.
    +100
    I'll play run lines with a road team I like, I like the Cards in this spot today,
    I refuse to lay -150 and up on the road.
    Last edited by stevenash; 07-23-22 at 01:27 PM.

  12. #12
    pilebuck13
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    Dodgers have the best pitching

  13. #13
    johnnyvegas13
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    ^
    Loser of the NL East gets the first Wild Card.

    Johnny, I just sent in Card (run line only) today.
    +100
    I'll play run lines with a road team I like, I like the Cards in this spot today,
    I refuse to lay -150 and up on the road.
    Lol I wanna take cards tonight but u know

    dobe till football

  14. #14
    johnnyvegas13
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    Hey Nash would u take Cleveland +450 to win the div ?

  15. #15
    pologq
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    yankees are not worth a bet and i am rooting for them. astros beat them in a 7 game series still easily.

  16. #16
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    BR's so-called true odds, based on analytics garbage, will put you in the poor house if you rely on it.

  17. #17
    goduke
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    Yanks losing king was a horrific loss for them. Having him and Holmes as playoff bullpen would have been a serious problem Ala kc royals back when they had 7-8-9 inning shutdown bullpen.

  18. #18
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkHorseplayer View Post
    BR's so-called true odds, based on analytics garbage, will put you in the poor house if you rely on it.
    Thanks for the pain staking analysis here.
    Good work.

  19. #19
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by goduke View Post
    Yanks losing king was a horrific loss for them. Having him and Holmes as playoff bullpen would have been a serious problem Ala kc royals back when they had 7-8-9 inning shutdown bullpen.
    Brutal

  20. #20
    jjgold
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    Houston matches up against Yanks

    Dodgers or Braves NL

  21. #21
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Houston matches up against Yanks

    Dodgers or Braves NL

    Houston has the best shot other than NY to win the AL.
    NY hates to play them.
    Astros are always a pain in the ass to most teams.

  22. #22
    johnnyvegas13
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    Fkkk Nash cards 2.5 back facing suspension vs jays as well

    oh well they still have like the easiest 2h schedule in mlb

  23. #23
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13 View Post
    Fkkk Nash cards 2.5 back facing suspension vs jays as well

    oh well they still have like the easiest 2h schedule in mlb
    Chill, Brews will gag, as usual, I know, they've burnt me in the past.
    Brews pitching is still stacked, but they always find a way to give it up at the finish line.
    Speed never slumps, Cards can score runs the way KC scored run in 2015.
    They'll track them down.

  24. #24
    stevenash
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    Exactly one week later (7/28)

    The database folks at br.com continues to amaze.
    Last week they said Boston had a 25% chance of making the post season yet the books were offering even money.
    Now the Sox are dead, I bet the Sox not to make the playoffs at -110 last week.

    BR still likes Seattle, I'm not that confident, I'd like to see them in the playoffs, but they still have to finish ahead of Toronto and TB.

    Flurry of Seattle money this week, now they're over bet, there's no more value in the Mariners.





    Current Average
    Tm W L W L Postâ–¼ WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS
    New York Mets 61 37 97.9 64.1 >99.9% 24.30% 75.70% 90.20% 49.60% 23.50% 10.70%
    Los Angeles Dodgers 65 32 105.7 56.3 >99.9% <0.1% >99.9% >99.9% 66.40% 44.20% 25.80%
    New York Yankees 66 33 105.1 56.9 >99.9% 0.20% 99.80% >99.9% 70.40% 48.00% 28.80%
    Houston Astros 64 35 100.5 61.5 >99.9% 0.90% 99.10% 99.50% 60.30% 26.00% 13.40%
    Atlanta Braves 59 41 93.1 69.9 97.70% 74.40% 23.30% 61.80% 27.10% 10.80% 3.60%
    Toronto Blue Jays 54 44 89.2 72.8 89.20% 89.00% 0.20% 48.60% 17.20% 7.60% 3.80%
    Seattle Mariners 54 45 88.2 73.8 85.00% 84.10% 0.90% 42.30% 13.60% 5.60% 1.50%
    St. Louis Cardinals 52 47 87.4 74.6 74.90% 23.60% 51.30% 42.80% 17.40% 6.30% 2.20%
    Milwaukee Brewers 55 44 86.7 75.3 73.00% 24.30% 48.70% 32.80% 12.80% 4.30% 2.00%
    Philadelphia Phillies 51 47 86.8 75.2 70.20% 69.20% 1.00% 35.70% 14.20% 7.50% 2.80%
    San Diego Padres 55 45 86.2 75.8 65.00% 65.00% <0.1% 28.40% 10.10% 2.80% 0.80%
    Tampa Bay Rays 53 45 85.5 76.5 63.40% 63.40% <0.1% 31.60% 12.80% 4.70% 1.20%
    Minnesota Twins 52 46 85.1 76.9 60.80% 13.20% 47.60% 27.80% 10.60% 3.50% 1.50%
    Cleveland Guardians 50 47 83.2 78.8 41.20% 9.70% 31.50% 20.80% 6.00% 2.30% 1.00%
    Chicago White Sox 49 49 82 80 31.60% 10.70% 20.90% 14.10% 4.60% 1.10% 0.30%
    San Francisco Giants 48 50 81 81 17.00% 17.00% <0.1% 7.30% 2.10% 0.60% 0.20%
    Baltimore Orioles 49 49 80.3 81.7 14.70% 14.70% <0.1% 7.20% 2.10% 0.60% 0.10%
    Boston Red Sox 49 50 79.7 82.3 12.70% 12.70% <0.1% 7.20% 1.90% 0.50% 0.30%

  25. #25
    johnnyvegas13
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13 View Post
    Mets r gonna choke again deja vu again this year

    div winners will b

    braves

    carfs

    dodgers
    I was right

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