When favored by 20 or more points...
- the #1 seed is 21-26 ATS (5 G by no more than +/- 1 point of spread, #1 Seed 3-2), O/U is 23-22-2 in these games
- and the O/U is no more than 140 points, the #1 Seed is 8-14 ATS, O/U 10-11-1
- and the #16 Seed has a Ken Pom ranking of 200 of worse, #1 Seed is 13-5 ATS, w/ 7 covers by 10 or more points
- since 2010, the #1 Seed has led by 15 or more points at the half in 12 of 13 games
- When the O/U is set at 145 or higher, #1 Seed is 15-9 ATS and the O/U is 14-9-1. In games that went over, #1 Seed scored on average 47.9
points in first half, in games that went under #1 Seed scored on average 35.8 points
- When the O/U is set at 144.5 or lower, #1 Seed is 15-21 ATS and the O/U is 15-20-1. Since 2013, when the O/U is 144.5 or lower, the
halftime margin has been 15 or more points 11 times and has been 6 or fewer points 7 times
- Over last 60 games, when the #1 Seed scores 85 or fewer points, the #1 Seed is 13-23 ATS, 6-15 ATS since 2012
- Over last 60 games, the average halftime score is #1 Seed: 39.9 points to #16 Seed 27.5 points
- At the half, when the #1 Seed trails or leads by 8 or fewer points, #1 Seed is 22-1 S/U and 4-19 ATS
- At the half, when the #1 Seed leads by 15 or more points, the #1 Seed is 23-5 ATS
- When #1 Seed comes from a conference outside of Tier 1, #1 Seed is 3-4 ATS
- When #1 Seed comes for a Tier 1 conference and the #16 Seed from a tier 5 or 6 conference, with a Ken Pom ranking of 200 or worse, #1
Seed is 17-0 S/U and 11-6 ATS
- When #16 Seed has an offensive efficiency ranking of 150 or better (20 G), the #16 Seed averages 61.55 PPG (60 or more 11 times) — when
ranking is 250 or worse (13 G) the #16 Seed averages 50.85 points (60 or more 2 times)
- When #16 Seed shoots 35% or better on its 3PA, #1 Seed is 10-17 ATS
- When #16 Seed has a defensive efficiency ranking of 150 or better (20 G), the #1 Seed averages 80.7 points per game (#1 Seed avg. OE rank:
8.3) — when ranking is 250 or worse (17 games) the #1 Seed averages 89.2 points (#1 Seed avg. OE rank: 8.1)
- When both teams have an adj. tempo ranking of 150 or better, the average total points scored is 160.9 points, O/U is 14-4
- When either team has an adj. tempo ranking of 200 or worse, the O/U is 11-17-1, the average pints scored is 129.4
- When #16 Seed has an adj. tempo ranking of 100 or worse AND a 3PT FG% ranking of 100 or worse AND has a 3PT FGA to FGA rate of
35% or lower, the #1 Seed is 10-5 ATS.
- When #1 Seed has ranking of 30 or better in both adj. off. efficiency AND 3PT FG%, #1 Seed is 16-7 ATS
When favored by 20 or more points, the #2 Seed is 4-7-1 ATS (2 G by no more than +/- 1 point of spread, #2 Seed 1-0-1)
- When the O/U is set at 145 points or higher, O/U is 3-12
- When the #2 Seed wins and covers vs. spread, O/U is 7-20
- In games where #2 Seed wins by 15 or more points...
- #2 Seed is 27-8-2 ATS (6 G by no more than +/- 1 point of spread, #2 Seed is 3-2-1 ATS), O/U 12-25
- #15 Seed scores 56.11 points per game
- In the games won by the #15 Seed...
- three of the four #15 Seeds had a Ken Pom ranking of 130 or better
- When the #15 Seed had a defensive efficiency ranking of 75 or better, #2 Seed 6-1 S/U and 1-6 ATS. O/U is 3-4
- When the #15 Seed had a defensive efficiency ranking of 100 or better, #2 Seed 10-1 S/U and 3-8 ATS. O/U is 3-8
- When the #15 Seed has an adjusted defensive efficiency total of under 100 (under 1 PPP), #2 Seed is 13-2 (5-10) and O/U is 4-11
- When the #15 Seed has an adjusted defensive efficiency total of 100 or higher (1 PPP or more), #2 Seed is 42-1 (21-20-2) and O/U is 19-24
- #2 Seed at halftime: Leading by more than 10 points: 21-7-2 ATS —— When trailing OR leading by 10 or less at half: 6-24 ATS
- #2 Seed has led by 10 or more points at half in 10 of last 16 games, trailed twice ('18 Michigan St./Bradley, '16 Michigan St./MTSU)
- When #15 Seed scores 65 or fewer points, #2 Seed is 25-14-1 ATS (O/U 12-28), 22-7 ATS (O/U 5-24) when 60 or fewer points
- When #15 Seed scores 70 or more points, the #2 Seed is 1-13-1 ATS, O/U is 11-4
- When #2 Seed scores 80 or fewer points, the O/U is 15-29, O/U is 4-24 when #2 Seed scores 75 or fewer points
- #2 Seed with a top 20 offensive AND defensive adjusted deficiency ranking is 21-1 S/U and 12-10 ATS. Since 2015, just 4-7 ATS
- #2 Seed with an adjusted tempo rank of 200 or slower AND an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better is 21-2 S/U and 16-6-1ATS, both L's against spread were by 1⁄2 of a point
- #2 Seed with a 3PA/FGA ranking of 1-100 is 14-2 S/U and 5-11 ATS (O/U 4-12). When 3PA/FGA ranking is 200+, #2 Seed is 22-0 S/U,9-12-1 ATS (O/U 13-9)
- When #15 Seed has an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 100 or better, #2 Seed is 10-1 S/U, 3-8 ATS (O/U 3-8)
- When #15 Seed has a 2PT FG% ranking of 100 or worse AND a 3PT FG% ranking of 100 or worse, #2 Seed is 10-1 S/U ('12 Duke/Lehigh)and 8-2-1 ATS
- favored by 10 or more points, the #4 Seed is 18-2 S/U, 6-13-1 ATS, and the O/U is 7-13
- favored by no more than 8 points, the #4 Seed is 16-8 S/U, 15-9 ATS, and the O/U is 12-12
- favored by no more than 5 points, the #4 Seed is 3-2 S/U, 2-3 ATS, and the O/U is 4-1
- When the O/U is set to...
- no more than 125 points, the #4 Seed is 10-1 S/U, 6-5 ATS, and the O/U is 5-6
- no less than 150 points, the #4 Seed is 8-3 S/U, 5-5-1 ATS, and the O/U is 5-6
- When the #13 Seed leads at halftime, the #4 Seed is 4-9 S/U and 2-11 ATS. When tied, the #4 Seed is 4-2 S/U and 2-4 ATS
- When leading by 5 or more points at halftime, the #4 Seed is 30-0 S/U and 21-8-1 ATS
- When #4 Seed scores 75 or more points, #4 Seed is 26-1 S/U, 20-6-1 ATS, and the O/U is 16-11
- When #4 Seed scores 70 or fewer points, #4 Seed is 13-11 S/U, 4-20 ATS, and the O/U is 5-19
- When #13 Seed...
- scores 65 or more points, the #4 Seed is 18-10 S/U, 11-16-1 ATS, and the O/U is 18-10
- scores 70 or more points, the #4 Seed is 10-8 S/U, 6-11-1 ATS, and the O/U is 14-4
- #4 Seed with a Ken Pom ranking of 10 or better is 16-1 S/U and 7-10 ATS
- #4 Seed with a Ken Pom ranking of 20 or worse is 11-10 S/U and 9-12 ATS
- When the #4 Seed has a Ken Pom ranking that is 85 ranking spots or better than the #13 Seed, the #4 Seed is 12-2 S/U and 9-4-1 ATS
- When the #4 Seed has a Ken Pom ranking that is no more than 40 spots better than the #13 Seed, the #4 Seed is 3-5 S/U and 2-6 ATS
- When #13 Seed has a Ken Pom Ranking of 65 or better, #4 Seed is 9-5 S/U, 7-7 ATS and the O/U is 8-6
- When #13 Seed has a Ken Pom ranking of 90 or worse, #4 Seed is 17-4 S/U, 13-7-1 ATS, and the O/U is 8-13
- When #4 Seed has an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking....
- of 30 or better, the #4 Seed is 31-5 S/U and 17-18-1 ATS. The #13 Seed is scoring 63 PPG
- and an offensive efficiency ranking of 30 or better, the #4 Seed is 16-0 S/U and 5-10-1 ATS
- of 60 or worse, the #4 Seed is 7-4 S/U and 6-5 ATS
- When #13 Seed has an adjusted offensive efficiency of...
- 110 points or more (1.1 adjusted PPP), the #13 Seed averages 70.3 PPG (17 G)
- 105 points or less (1.05 adjusted PPP), the #13 Seed averages 59.3 PPG (11 G)
- #4 Seed from a Tier 1 conference is 17-3 S/U and 14-6 ATS against a #13 Seed from a Tier 5 or 6 Conference. Two of the 3 S/U L's have beenby a single point.
- 5.5 or more points, the #6 Seed is 8-6 S/U, 5-9 ATS, and the O/U is 5-9
- 3 or fewer points, the #6 Seed is 9-11 S/U, 9-11 ATS, and the O/U is 7-12-1
- When the #11 Seed is favored, the #6 Seed is 1-5 S/U, 1-5 ATS, and the O/U is 4-2
- Each S/U win by #11 Seed is by 12 or more points
- When the O/U is set at...
- No more than 130 points, the #6 Seed is 12-6 S/U, 10-8 ATS, and the O/U is 7-11
- No less than 142 points, the #6 Seed is 10-5 S/U, 8-7 ATS, and the O/U is 5-10
- When tied or trailing at the half, the #6 Seed is 6-22 S/U and 5-23 ATS
- When #6 Seed scores...
- 70 or more points, #6 Seed is 17-6 S/U and 15-8 ATS (O/U 17-5-1)
- 75 or more points, #6 Seed is 13-2 S/U and 11-4 ATS (O/U 10-4-1)
- 65 or fewer points, #6 Seed is 12-19 S/U and 8-23 ATS (O/U 4-27)
- When #11 Seed scores 65 or more points, #6 Seed is 8-22 S/U and 5-25 ATS (O/U 18-12)
- When #11 Seed has a Ken Pom ranking...
- of 30 or better, #6 Seed is 5-7 S/U and 5-7 ATS
- of 50 or better, #6 Seed is 18-19 S/U and 13-24 ATS
- that is better than the #6 Seed, the #6 Seed is 3-6 S/U and 3-6 ATS
- When #6 Seed has an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better, #6 Seed is 13-10 S/U and 9-14 ATS
- When #11 Seed has an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 75 or worse, #6 Seed is 14-5 S/U and 10-9 ATS — when the efficiencyranking is 50 or better, #6 Seed is 9-16 S/U and 5-18 ATS
- #6 Seed NOT from AAC, ACC, B10, B12, BE, P10, P12, SEC vs. #11 Seed from one of those conferences, #6 Seed is 2-4 S/U and 2-4 ATS
- #6 Seed NOT from AAC, ACC, B10, B12, BE, P10, P12, SEC vs. #11 Seed NOT from those power conferences, #6 Seed: 4-2 S/U, 4-2 ATS
- When #6 Seed from AAC, ACC, B10, B12, BE, P10, P12, SEC vs. #11 Seed from AAC, ACC, B10, B12, BE, P10, P12, SEC is 13-8 S/U and12-9 ATS, #6 Seed has led at half in 16 of 21 games, 8 times by ten or more points
- 21 of 60 games decided by 5 or fewer points, 16 of 60 games decided by 3 or fewer points
- 30 of 60 games decided by 10 or more points, 14 of 60 games decided by 15 or more points
When favored by more than three points, the favored team is 10-9 S/U and 10-9 ATS
- When leading at the half, the #8 Seed is 22-7 S/U and 24-5 ATS
- When leading by five or more points at the half, the #8 Seed is 15-3 S/U and 16-2 ATS
- When tied or trailing at the half, the #8 Seed is 9-22 S/U and 6-25 ATS (4-14 S/U and 2-16 ATS when trailing at half by five or more points)
- When #8 Seed scores...
- 70 or fewer points, #8 Seed is 11-22 S/U and 9-24 ATS, with the O/U being 11-20-2
- 75 or more points, #8 Seed is 18-3 S/U and 19-2 ATS, with the O/U being 18-3
- When #9 Seed scores...
- 70 or fewer points, #8 Seed is 18-10 S/U and 16-12 ATS
- 75 or more points, #8 Seed is 6-12 S/U and 7-11 ATS, with the O/U being 15-3
- When the #8 Seed has a worse Ken Pom ranking than the #9 Seed, the #8 Seed is 10-11 S/U and 11-10 ATS
- When also an underdog, the #8 Seed is 7-9 S/U and 8-8 ATS
- When #8 Seed has an offensive efficiency of 110 or worse, the #8 Seed is 6-7 S/U and 5-8 ATS
- When #8 Seed has an offensive efficiency of 115 or better, the #8 Seed is 8-6 S/U and 8-6 ATS
- #8 Seed from AAC, ACC, B10, B12, BE, P10, P12, SEC vs. #9 Seed from AAC, ACC, B10, B12, BE, P10, P12, SEC is 12-9 S/U & 12-9 ATS
- #8 Seed from AAC, ACC, B10, B12, BE, P10, P12, SEC vs. #9 Seed from OTHER conferences is 4-5 S/U and 4-5 ATS
- #8 Seed from OTHER conferences vs. #9 Seed from OTHER conferences, #8 Seed is 3-3 S/U and 4-2 ATS
- #8 Seed from OTHER conferences vs. #9 Seed from AAC, ACC, B10, B12, BE, P10, P12, SEC, #8 Seed is 8-5 S/U and 7-6 ATS
- In these matchups, when #9 Seed is favored, #8 Seed is 6-2 S/U and 6-2 ATS
- In 27 games where the Ken Pom ranking difference is 20 spots or less, the avg.MOV is 8.07 points, 8 G decided by 3 points or less- Average halftime margin is 7.43 points