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Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 9 college football picks, bets, nuggets 🏈
Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 9 college football picks, bets, nuggets
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College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. The Bear continued his impressive run with a third straight perfect week (9-0 in that span). The only game the guys missed last week was Middle Tennessee-Rice, a game that took two overtimes to decide. Will the hot streak continue?
Here is your guide to Week 9 of the season with the two college football analysts. (Games postponed because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records
- Stanford Steve (2-1 last week, 14-8 overall)
- The Bear (3-0, 13-7)
The plays
No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (-14, 42.5) at Kentucky Wildcats
Stanford Steve: Love the spot here for the Dawgs, coming off a bye after getting shut out in the second half versus Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The defense will travel to Lexington for this one, and on top of that, UK looks as if it might be starting Auburn transfer Joey Gatewood for the first time this season at QB. We'll lay the points here with Kirby Smart's squad.
Pick: Georgia -14 (Georgia 34, Kentucky 18)
Memphis Tigers at No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (-7, 55)
The Bear: The Bearcats were never really threatened last week at SMU, as the Ponies helped UC with a lot of dropped passes, but credit the UC defense for holding SMU to 13 points and 290 yards. The final score was a bit deceiving; the Bearcats scored twice late, including a 91-yard TD run by QB Desmond Ridder. This week will be another tough ask against a team that beat Cincinnati twice last year and might have an even more dynamic offense than SMU. Defense is optional for the Tigers, but I expect their offense will at least keep them in the game, even against a solid defense like Cincinnati's.
Pick: Memphis +7
No. 16 Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers (-3.5, 45.5)
The Bear: Kansas State is the ranked road underdog against an unranked team, and that immediately sounds sirens in my mind. Then you take a look at the K-State game log and despite the 4-1 mark, the Wildcats have outgained only one team this year (Kansas) and have been extremely successful in the turnover department, committing only two and with a plus-7 edge this season. At some point that probably will regress. Bring a backup QB into play and this feels like a good spot to back the Mountaineers, who lost a game in Lubbock last week in which they outgained the Red Raiders by nearly 100 yards but really struggled on third down (4-for-16).
Pick: West Virginia -3.5
No. 20 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-3, 60) at Georgia State Panthers
The Bear: That was a really nice win last week by the Chants, as the defense completely dominated in the second half to thwart the upset bid. Problem is, the offense will have to play better this week against a Georgia State team that has scored better than 30 points every game and very easily could be undefeated itself (lost in OT to Louisiana and late to Arkansas State). The ranked team as the short favorite probably will take most of the action -- that's my guess -- but I think Shawn Elliott's team is the right side here.
Pick: Georgia State +3
Rice Owls at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-1.5, 57)
Stanford Steve: Plenty going on in this one. Rice is off its first loss of the season in its first game of the season, which ended in wild fashion. We've all seen it; no reason to bring it up again (OK, quadruple doink). The thought is that transfer QB Mike Collins will be better and smarter in his second start compared to his first. On the other side, the Eagles are on their third head coach of the season and have had many obstacles to overcome, most notably multiple games canceled because of positive COVID-19 tests. It won't be pretty, but we'll fly with the Owls again here.
Pick: Rice +1.5 (Rice 31, Southern Miss 21)
The Bear's underdogs to play on money line round robin/parlays/straight
Georgia State +115
Memphis +210
Illinois +220
Northwestern +120
Auburn +120
The Bear's money line parlay
$100 returns $85.77
Tulsa -775
Michigan -3000
Notre Dame -1300
Duke -350
BYU -4500
Louisiana -800
Ole Miss -700
Stanford Steve's 3-team, 9-point teaser
We like all three underdogs, so why not take some more points with all of them?
Michigan State +33.5
Georgia State +11.5
Rutgers +20
Bear Bytes
Ranked on the road vs. unranked teams
Ranked teams on the road vs. unranked teams are just 9-17 ATS this season. Last year they went 51-40-1 ATS.
Kansas State in tough spot at West Virginia
Dating to 2017, there have been 13 instances of a team ranked outside the top 15 as an underdog of four points or less on the road vs. an unranked team. Those 13 teams are 2-11 SU and ATS. Kansas State falls into this category this week.
Michigan a big favorite
This would be the second time under Jim Harbaugh that the Wolverines were favored by at least 24 points over Michigan State. The other time was in 2016, when Michigan beat Michigan State 32-23 as a 24-point favorite.
Auburn thrives as home underdog
Over the past five years, Auburn has been a home underdog six times. The Tigers have covered five of the six and won four outright.
2019: vs. No. 5 Alabama (-3.5), Auburn won by 3
2019: vs. No. 5 Georgia (-3), lost by 7
2017: vs. No. 1 Alabama (-5), won by 12
2017: vs. No. 2 Georgia (-2.5), won by 23
2016: vs. No. 18 LSU (-3), won by 5
2016: vs. No. 2 Clemson (-8), lost by 6
Penn State in rare spot vs. Ohio State
The Buckeyes were 4-1 ATS as a road favorite last year under Ryan Day. The only game they failed to cover was at Rutgers when they were a 52-point favorite.
James Franklin teams are 7-1 ATS with three outright wins and two one-point losses in their past eight games as a 'dog. His teams have been a double-digit home underdog four times and he has won once outright and has two other losses by a TD or less. This is the first time since the 2016 upset over Ohio State that Penn State has been in this spot.
Franklin-coached teams' past eight games as an underdog: 2019 at Ohio State (-20.5), lost by 11; 2018 at Michigan (-12), lost by 35; 2018 vs. Ohio State (-3.5), lost by 1; 2017 at Ohio State (-7), lost by 1; 2016 vs. USC (-7), lost by 3; 2016 vs. Wisconsin (-2), won by 7; 2016 vs. Ohio State (-19), won by 3; 2016 vs. Maryland (-2), won by 24.
Franklin-coached teams as a double-digit home underdog: 2016 vs. Ohio State (-19), won by 3; 2014 vs. Michigan (-13.5), lost by 24; 2014 vs. Ohio State (-14), lost by 7; 2011 vs. Georgia (-12), lost by 5.
Indiana (at Rutgers) struggles as road favorite
Dating to 2016, Indiana has been a road favorite nine times. The Hoosiers are 1-7-1 ATS in those nine games.
Illinois (vs. Purdue) in good position?
Last year, the Illini were 3-0 ATS with one outright win and a four-point loss as a 13.5-point dog as a home underdog.
Ignore the record
Over the past 10 years, there have been nine teams 1-5 or worse favored over a team .500 or better. Those nine teams are 7-2 ATS. Dating to 1978, only three times has a team 1-5 or worse been at least a nine-point favorite over a .500 or better team. Favorites won and covered all three of those games. Duke (1-5) is a 9.5-point favorite over Charlotte (2-2).
Lookahead warning?
Clemson and Notre Dame are huge favorites this week. Do they sleepwalk to wins ahead of their meeting in South Bend next week?
Wrongside gave Hman 5 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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