Originally Posted by
HossWilbur
I'm all for teams going for 2 every time if the team can beat the expected points of kicking an extra point, unless a situation calls differently for it (ex. being up 16 and going up 17 to make it 3 scores).
94% chance of kicking a successful extra point.
Up to that point, Tennessee had scored a TD on 4 of 9 drives. Tennessee TD success rate this game = 44.4%. Not only do they have to score a TD, they also need to hit the 2 point conversion. 2 point conversion success rate = around 50%.
.444*.5 = .222
1-.222 = 77.8% for HOU to not allow a TD and 2 point conversion in the final 1:50.
.94*.778 = 73.1% chance to kick successful extra point, and not allow a TD and 2 point conversion by TEN. Or HOU can go for around a 50% shot at 2 point conversion.
....
Not that I have any idea what's behind the scenes, but from ESPN's article... "According to ESPN's win probability calculator, The Texans had a 98.2% chance to win if they kicked the extra point, and 98.1% chance to win if they went for two."
The fact that Tennessee is undefeated is irrelevant imo. They beat DEN, JAX, MIN, BUF, and HOU. Of those teams only Buffalo has a better than .500 record. IND has won one less game and has the better point differential.