OK, let's look at the total.
It's nine flat.
And the team totals are LAD 5.5 and ATL 3.5
Let's break it down.
One thing is almost a guarantee is that LA will not score 11 runs in the first inning again, and will not score 15 total runs again.
First question, will the Braves score at least 4 runs tonight?
If so, can the Dodgers score at least 5 runs?
If so, then you would like the over 9 runs.
If you are playing for a push at nine then why even bet the total in the first place?
You bet to win, and to win you need 10.
Atlanta doesn't score many runs against LHP.
Kershaw is a better LHP than almost all of them.
Kershaw will go six innings tonight.
I will use BvP split stats if the sample size is big enough.
BvP splits I use as an ancillary stat to support my argument.
It's a Batter vs. Pitcher all time stat.
I use it to gauge how each opposing batter has fared in the past against a certain starter.
There is no Brave batter that has had any success vs. Kershaw in the past.
Zero.
The current Braves dugout is 41 for 193 vs. Kershaw (.212) with 2 home runs and an OBA of .243
https://swishanalytics.com/optimus/m...-pitcher-stats
Long story short Kershaw owns the Braves and I can't see Atlanta getting more than 2 runs max off of him.
I say the Braves score three total runs.
Do I think LA scores seven runs to make my over wager?
No.
I think LA wins 4-2
I think the under is a good play here.