[stevenash]

On paper this game has a LA Dodger win written all over it.

Kershaw is -220 right now on the money line.
If you like risking over 2 to 1 on a single game, there's you're bet.
I don't lay -220

Even the run line is close to -150
That's much to high for my tastes but it is what it is for a reason.

Braves start a spot starter (Bryse Wilson) who really isn't that good.
Not only that he's not an innings eater which means Atlanta will have to empty out the bullpen again like they did last night.

Dodgers start Kershaw who needs no introduction.
Like last's night starter, he's a lefty.
A good one.
Braves can't hit LHP very well.

If you can find value in betting LA, there's your play.

I have to pass.

I have no confirmation on who is going to start (open) yet in tonight's Tampa game.
Until so, I have no opinion.

[KVB]

On the UNDER 9 here Nash.

[Sam Odom]

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...tick-your.html

[SamsNCharge99]

100% will be betting

[pologq]

100% betting also. thank you for the write up nash.

[stevek173]

CRAZY juice

[lakerboy]

Most sbr posters bet-200 regularly. That's why books are still in business. Nothing against anyone.

[pologq]

you are right laker. that is why i will not bet a lot. just enough to wet my whistle.

[DroopyDog]

Id bet Table Tennis before laying -200 on Kershaw

[Ghenghis Kahn]

How important was yesterday's game for the Doyers?

The series price went from +180 to -120, just from that game.

[johnnyvegas13]

U like doggers gm over 9 Nash ?

[Sam Odom]

Kahn

cannot bank runs from past games

[SamsNCharge99]

Most sbr posters bet-200 regularly. That's why books are still in business. Nothing against anyone.

sammy chalk

[Hman]

Steep price for sure

[jrgum3]

I went with Dodgers Team total over 5.5 and F5 o4.5 both priced at -110. This game does have Dodgers written all over it but you're right I wouldn't lay that price with Kershaw. I do think they score a bunch of runs against Atlanta pitching tonight since its a bullpen game so that team total is appealing just like the F5 over is appealing at only 4.5.

[pologq]

I went with Dodgers Team total over 5.5 and F5 o4.5 both priced at -110. This game does have Dodgers written all over it but you're right I wouldn't lay that price with Kershaw. I do think they score a bunch of runs against Atlanta pitching tonight since its a bullpen game so that team total is appealing just like the F5 over is appealing at only 4.5.

i like that team total. will tail on that.

[KRIT]

Lets just assume Dodgers win and tie the series up. Where do both teams go for game 5? Dodgers can easily turn to May to start game 5, or pitch Beuhler on short rest. Won't Braves have to go with Fried on short rest? They really miss Soroka....or Felix Hernandez lol. They just don't have the starting pitching depth that the Dodgers have.

[tiktok]

Give ATL 2.5 points.. Dodgers will cover

[lakerboy]

Lets just assume Dodgers win and tie the series up. Where do both teams go for game 5? Dodgers can easily turn to May to start game 5, or pitch Beuhler on short rest. Won't Braves have to go with Fried on short rest? They really miss Soroka....or Felix Hernandez lol. They just don't have the starting pitching depth that the Dodgers have.

They have to pull out all the stops to win this game today.

[JIBBBY]

I'm gonna pay the frigg'n juice foc it!!! GO DODGERS!!

Ticket#:4548959 Oct 15 08:08 PM

Oct 15 02:37 PM

MLB

STRAIGHT BET [977] LAD -220 ( ACTION )

500.00 / 227.27

Kershaw just pitch well today damn it!!

[hehfest]

Wilson the Braves pitcher is a relief pitcher? He's a clear "opener". This is a bullpen game for them. Wilson has a 1.8 Whip or something. Ouch. He might only go 3 batters in this one.

[SamsNCharge99]

braves team total under

[hehfest]

How important was yesterday's game for the Doyers?

The series price went from +180 to -120, just from that game.

But when it was Braves 1-0 the series price was Dodgers -115 and even went to Braves slight favorite with uncertainty about Kershaw's back. Not really much of a change/difference to last time Braves had one game lead.

[stevenash]

U like doggers gm over 9 Nash ?

OK, let's look at the total.

It's nine flat.
And the team totals are LAD 5.5 and ATL 3.5

Let's break it down.
One thing is almost a guarantee is that LA will not score 11 runs in the first inning again, and will not score 15 total runs again.

First question, will the Braves score at least 4 runs tonight?
If so, can the Dodgers score at least 5 runs?
If so, then you would like the over 9 runs.
If you are playing for a push at nine then why even bet the total in the first place?
You bet to win, and to win you need 10.

Atlanta doesn't score many runs against LHP.
Kershaw is a better LHP than almost all of them.
Kershaw will go six innings tonight.

I will use BvP split stats if the sample size is big enough.
BvP splits I use as an ancillary stat to support my argument.
It's a Batter vs. Pitcher all time stat.
I use it to gauge how each opposing batter has fared in the past against a certain starter.

There is no Brave batter that has had any success vs. Kershaw in the past.
Zero.

The current Braves dugout is 41 for 193 vs. Kershaw (.212) with 2 home runs and an OBA of .243
https://swishanalytics.com/optimus/m...-pitcher-stats

Long story short Kershaw owns the Braves and I can't see Atlanta getting more than 2 runs max off of him.
I say the Braves score three total runs.

Do I think LA scores seven runs to make my over wager?
No.

I think LA wins 4-2

I think the under is a good play here.

[jjgold]

Atlanta RL

[stevenash]

Atlanta RL

Braves +2.5 runs -135

[KVB]

Agreed, the Braves RL has moned into consideration territory.

[sackdud]

Braves +2.5 runs -135

thats a good deal for a total of 9

[5918mike]

It's a perfect freeplay conversion line, I'm getting 60% on it.

[hehfest]

OK, let's look at the total.

It's nine flat.
And the team totals are LAD 5.5 and ATL 3.5

Let's break it down.
One thing is almost a guarantee is that LA will not score 11 runs in the first inning again, and will not score 15 total runs again.

First question, will the Braves score at least 4 runs tonight?
If so, can the Dodgers score at least 5 runs?
If so, then you would like the over 9 runs.
If you are playing for a push at nine then why even bet the total in the first place?
You bet to win, and to win you need 10.

Atlanta doesn't score many runs against LHP.
Kershaw is a better LHP than almost all of them.
Kershaw will go six innings tonight.

I will use BvP split stats if the sample size is big enough.
BvP splits I use as an ancillary stat to support my argument.
It's a Batter vs. Pitcher all time stat.
I use it to gauge how each opposing batter has fared in the past against a certain starter.

There is no Brave batter that has had any success vs. Kershaw in the past.
Zero.

The current Braves dugout is 41 for 193 vs. Kershaw (.212) with 2 home runs and an OBA of .243
https://swishanalytics.com/optimus/m...-pitcher-stats

Long story short Kershaw owns the Braves and I can't see Atlanta getting more than 2 runs max off of him.
I say the Braves score three total runs.

Do I think LA scores seven runs to make my over wager?
No.

I think LA wins 4-2

I think the under is a good play here.

193 at bats for a whole dugout against one pitcher isn't all that much history whatsoever. Most of the Braves batters have probably either never faced Kershaw or barely faced Kershaw. And they certainly have not faced him in high intensity like the playoffs.

[Buckandadime]

On the UNDER 9 here Nash.

OK, let's look at the total.

It's nine flat.
And the team totals are LAD 5.5 and ATL 3.5

Let's break it down.
One thing is almost a guarantee is that LA will not score 11 runs in the first inning again, and will not score 15 total runs again.

First question, will the Braves score at least 4 runs tonight?
If so, can the Dodgers score at least 5 runs?
If so, then you would like the over 9 runs.
If you are playing for a push at nine then why even bet the total in the first place?
You bet to win, and to win you need 10.

Atlanta doesn't score many runs against LHP.
Kershaw is a better LHP than almost all of them.
Kershaw will go six innings tonight.

I will use BvP split stats if the sample size is big enough.
BvP splits I use as an ancillary stat to support my argument.
It's a Batter vs. Pitcher all time stat.
I use it to gauge how each opposing batter has fared in the past against a certain starter.

There is no Brave batter that has had any success vs. Kershaw in the past.
Zero.

The current Braves dugout is 41 for 193 vs. Kershaw (.212) with 2 home runs and an OBA of .243
https://swishanalytics.com/optimus/m...-pitcher-stats

Long story short Kershaw owns the Braves and I can't see Atlanta getting more than 2 runs max off of him.
I say the Braves score three total runs.

Do I think LA scores seven runs to make my over wager?
No.

I think LA wins 4-2

I think the under is a good play here.

I'm with you fellers..

[pologq]

nash thanks again for your analysis

[KRIT]

I like the under here too, but isn’t it way more logical to just play Braves team total under? Dodgers probably aren’t putting up 15 again, but would it shock anyone if they put up 8 runs against a shaky starter and a taxed pen?

[unde0087]

Over 9, and it will be a rather large bet for me. Good luck fellas.

[lonegambler23]

landers laying it