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Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana 👊
Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
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The women's bantamweight division is front and center this week, featuring four fighters ranked in the division's top six competing on the main card on Fight Island. The matchmaking is interesting, pitting two highly ranked former contenders against two lower-ranked relative newcomers.
But Holly Holm and Germaine de Randamie have already faced each other and fought for titles, planting them firmly at the top of the division ranks behind champion Amanda Nunes. Irene Aldana and Julianna Pena are both surging younger talents who could each be one win away from a title shot if they can take down their higher-ranked opponents this week. The matchmaking makes the stakes a little bigger for the winners, and the rankings don't always determine the winner.
Prelims begin at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+, and the main card starts at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Women's bantamweight main event: No. 2 Holly Holm (-120) vs. No. 6 Irene Aldana (+100)
Tale Of The TapeWhen you consider the full professional record of Holm in striking sports, it adds up to 78 pro bouts across three sports, making her one of the more experienced and decorated strikers on the UFC roster. And on top of her striking skills, she has spent her MMA career with elite coaches and has competed in five-rounders and main events for the majority of her UFC appearances. As a former champ, and with Holm's experience and pedigree, it says a lot that Aldana is nearly a pick 'em in this main event.
HOLLY HOLM IRENE ALDANA Last fight weight class Women's bantamweight Women's bantamweight Age 39 32 Height 68 69 Reach 69 68.5 Stance Southpaw Orthodox Analyzed minutes 180 108 Stand-up striking offense Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 2:1 1:1 Distance knockdown rate 1.4% 0.4% Head jab accuracy 17% 25% Head power accuracy 23% 37% Total stand-up strike ratio 1.2 1.0 Striking defense Total head strike defense 72% 71% Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 99% 100% Wrestling and grappling TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.13 0.04 Takedown accuracy 27% 50% Advances per takedown/top control 1.5 1.4 Opponent takedown attempts 26 31 Takedown defense 77% 94% Share of total ground time in control 50% 18% Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.08 0.25
Aldana is still relatively young and newer to competition, but she's also a finisher and comes off an impressive first-round KO win over another top-10 fighter in Ketlen Vieira. Her performance metrics on paper show better accuracy than Holm, but that must be held with the perspective of talent that each fighter has faced. Holm has been facing only the elite of the division during her UFC career, while Aldana is new to the main stage.
Holm's stats were accumulated during a 5-5 run that included five title appearances across two divisions and numerous rounds against the best strikers available. Her style is also decidedly long range and higher in power. So, while her accuracy is much lower than Aldana's, Holm should still fair well if she keeps her distance and plays to her strengths. Aldana, on the other hand, if she's willing to take some punishment on the way in, could stifle Holm's long game and use her crisp boxing to damage the older fighter.
However, the clinch game gives Holm an out should she get into trouble. Holm has clinched against the fence and been dominant when doing so, while Aldana has yet to use the clinch effectively. This area of the cage might be a mismatch.
The ground game is also a wild card. Despite both fighters preferring to stand and trade, Holm at least does show some willingness to take fights to the ground, and she has been more successful there than Aldana.
If we're to be believe that Aldana is as good as she has performed on paper and recognize that Holm is approaching 40 and might not have as much of a gas tank as she used to, this looks like a dangerous matchup for the former champ. But if she uses her kicking game and lengthy periods in the clinch, she could nullify any chance Aldana has for a stunning KO upset. These are all ifs, making this a risky fight to predict.
E+ recommends: Pass at current odds. Should the fight get closer to a pick 'em, slight lean on Holm.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
The fight between former featherweight champion Germaine de Randamie (-120) and Julianna Pena (+100) is an intriguing matchup less because of the similar strengths and more because of the extreme contrast. De Randamie is a highly technical striker with the best pure striking metrics on the card. But Pena doesn't spend much time on her feet, which could make de Randamie's strengths irrelevant for much of a three-round fight. To date, Pena has spent over two-thirds of all Octagon time on the mat. She attempts takedowns once per minute while on her feet, so we should see quickly whether this matchup will play out standing or on the ground. If Pena can get it down, she could grind to an upset.
E+ recommends: Money line play on Pena at plus money.
Former contender Carlos Condit (+110) is a legend among devout fans who followed the WEC, and he turned in some memorable performances after his transition to the UFC. But now winless in over five years and absent from the cage altogether for nearly the past two, Condit's days of title contention seem long gone. Maybe that's why long-time grinder Court McGee (-130) is favored over the former interim champ, despite McGee never really being consider elite in the division. McGee opened as an underdog but has since risen to favorite status. Should Condit show up in shape, consider an upset play. It could be a coin flip matchup, and Condit should be motivated to end his run on a win.
E+ recommends: Slight money line lean on Condit, should he remain clearly plus money.
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Originally Posted by KVB
