PGA Tour FedExCup playoffs: Best bets for Northern Trust ⛳
PGA Tour FedExCup playoffs: Best bets for Northern Trust
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It's playoff time on the PGA Tour. Patrick Reed will defend his title at The Northern Trust in the first event of the FedExCup playoffs.
Ultra long shot Jim Herman (500-1) punched his ticket to the playoffs last week with his win at Wyndham. Tiger Woods will also be back in the field this week at TPC Boston.
So where does the smart money lie? What bets and props are worth a look?
Betting expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica, ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Bets to win
Marks: DeChambeau won here in 2018. He knows driving distance is the biggest metric at TPC Boston, a statistic in which he ranks first on tour this season. This will be a fun week for Mr. Grip it and Rip it. Add in the fact that DeChambeau ranks in the top 5 in putting and top 15 in scrambling, he looks like the man to beat Sunday. And I love the tournament matchup vs. Morikawa, who is his polar opposite, in that he is not long off the tee and has struggled with his putting this season.
DeChambeau 11-1; +275 top 5 (DraftKings), +163 Top 10 (DK), -125 top 20 (DK)
Fallica: DeChambeau won the last PGA Tour event played here and his game as "bulked-up Bryson" probably fits the course even more now as he can just punish the par-4s. He's No.1 in shots gained total and off the tee and is No. 4 in shots gained putting. Nothing else really needs to be said. If he shoots in the 60s Thursday, his price shortens dramatically, so best get in now. Xander Schauffele 18-1; +110 top 20 (DK)
Fallica: He has yet to win this year, but he has three top-3 finishes and has been out of the top 20 once since the restart. He's seemingly there every week, and at plus money to finish in the top 20, I'm all for that. He doesn't have a great track record at TPC Boston, but that's the only negative here. There's no question he has the game to be in the mix once again.
Morikawa 25-1; +300 top 10 (DK)
Bearman: The kid showed what he was made of over the last few holes at Harding Park and took home his first career major. Yet, he still isn't getting total respect in the betting market. Morikawa is second in the FedExCup standings, has two wins and a runner-up finish since the restart and is still 25-1, which is only the seventh-shortest odds in the field. He's second in shots gained on approach, third in tee to green and 12th in total shots gained. He's also 23rd in hitting greens in regulation, an important stat at this course, as the last two winners both were T-7.
Has he played TPC Boston? No, but he hadn't played a professional round at TPC Harding Park, Muirfield Village or Colonial either. No, he isn't a grip-it-and-rip-it guy who usually wins at this course, but that didn't matter last week on the par-4 16th when he drove it to 7 feet. I love everything this kid is doing on the course and will take him 25-1 as well as 3-1 to finish in the top 10.
Bearman: Watching Rose near the top of the leaderboard Saturday at Harding Park, I was kicking myself for not taking a stab at 60-1 odds, something you never see for Rose. Sure, he had three consecutive missed cuts leading into the PGA Championship, but this is a former world No. 1, major winner and 10-time PGA Tour winner. How quickly we forget he was T-3 at Colonial and T-14 at Harbour Town before the three bad missed cuts. He rebounded with three rounds in the 60s at the PGA before missing the cut last week in Greensboro after a first-round 73.
I'm not missing out this time, especially at 55-1 (and as high as 70-1 at some books). Did I mention he finished second in 2018 when the Northern Trust was last held at TPC Boston, and 10th the year before? He's the only player in this week's field to finish in the top 10 in the past two events held here. With prices floating up to 70-1, I'll take a stab.
Tyrrell Hatton 60-1; +1000 top 10 (DK), +250 top 20 (DK)
Fallica: Hatton has cooled off since his run of four straight top-6 finishes, which included a win at Bay Hill. But he fired a 63 here a couple of years ago en route to a T-12 finish and is still one of the best on tour on approach and with the putter. Because of his recent struggles, his price has risen, and I'm all for hopping in win, top-10 and top-20 markets. Prop bets
Marks: Rahm is ranked seventh in shots gained tee to green and fifth in shots gained off the tee this season. He will dominate par-5 scoring and is great on bentgrass.
Marks: His game fits well at TPC Boston. He is ranked 10th in shots gained on approach this season, 19th in shots gained tee to green and does well on bentgrass
Bearman: Remember this guy? The 2013 Masters winner with 24 wins on PGA and European Tours? He took a longer break than most, not returning post-pandemic until the PGA Championship, where he finished a respectable T-22. I was tempted to take a shot at the 38-1 odds to win, but he has only four rounds under his belt since March. He absolutely can win, as he did here in 2003, but I think the value lies in getting +250 on your money to basically do what he did at the PGA Championship and throw some on +450 to get into the top 10, which he has done four times at this course over the past 10 years. He did win the Genesis back before the break and fits the mold of this course: someone who can bomb it off the tee and hit greens. Sometimes you can pick off value on good players who just haven't been mentioned in a while, and Scott's is not due to poor play. A well-rested Scott could bring you some money in Boston this week.
Gary Woodland +275 top 20 (DK); first-round leader 66-1 (DK)
Bearman: Want some consistency? Woodland has made the cut all seven times he has played this course and finished in the top 25 in five of those trips. He hasn't finished any better than T-12 since 2015, but I'm not picking him to win, just to finish in the top 20. He's a grip-it-and-rip-it guy who has finished in the top 13 in driving distance each of the past seven years, and he is beyond due this year. Recent form has been to play well on Thursday and Friday and fade on the weekend. I'm hoping he is more consistent this week and puts in four quality rounds. And because he does much better in the first two rounds, I am going to sprinkle some on him being the first-round leader at 66-1.
Marks: Mr. Top 10 does it again this week. He has three top-10 finishes in his past four starts, and this season ranks 18th in driving distance and T-17 in shots gained on approach.
Marks: Bombers will dominate the par 5s this week, and Champ is ranked second in driving distance this season. Jason Day +450 top 5 (DK)
Marks: Day is back, healthy, and so dialed in coming into this event. He has finished top 7 or better in each of his past four starts and has had success at TPC Boston. This season, he ranks sixth in greens in regulation 150-175 yards out and is 23rd in scrambling.
Schauffele +450 top 5 (DK)
Marks: Schauffele comes in hot with five straight top-20 finishes. I love how his game plays to the metrics needed to win at TPC Boston; this season, he ranks 31st in driving distance, 37th in shots gained on approach, 45th in greens in regulation from 150-175 yards out and sixth in scrambling, and he's great on bentgrass.
Reed +550 top 5 (DK); top Georgia player +250 (DK)
Marks: Reed finished in the top 6 at TPC Boston from 2015 to 2017. His game is in great form, and he loves big events. This season he is ranked ninth in putting and specializes in bentgrass. Matchups
Fallica: DeChambeau had a couple of hiccups in the Memorial and at Southwind but had finished no worse than eighth in the previous eight starts, and he nearly captured the PGA in his last start. Whatever has gone wrong with McIlroy since the restart, I don't know, but he has shown nothing in the past two months to show he can beat DeChambeau over 72 holes.
Marks: My best bet. Berger is having an incredible season, sporting seven top-15 finishes. This season, he ranks 21st in shots gained on approach, T-14 in shots gained putting, and he's second in scrambling. Meanwhile, Tiger's putting has been horrific his past four events, losing strokes gained putting at each stop.
Reed (-112) over Berger (-112) (DK)
Falica: Reed had three straight top-6 finishes on this course from 2015 to 2017, and while he appears to be a different player this year, Berger doesn't have the track record that Reed does on this course. Reed is also the defending champ, although last year's event was played at Liberty National.
Fallica: Can Horschel get the disappointment of last week out of his mind? He was runner-up on this course in 2014, but since then -- WD, cut, cut, 72nd. Ancer went 66-69-65 here in 2018 before a final-round 73 that dropped him to T-7. He struggled at Harding Park and Memorial, but his other four finishes since the restart all resulted in top-15 finishes. He's top 30 in shots gained off the tee and putts well enough to finish there again.
Bearman: I mentioned above that I like Rose this week to contend and possibly win as a 55-1 or longer shot in Boston. I am for sure going to take him here as plus money. Nothing against Im, but unlike Rose, who has played very well at TPC Boston in the past, this will be Im's first appearance here. It's a big stage, one that Rose is accustomed to, and I think he wins as a 'dog here.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
PGA Tour FedExCup playoffs: Best bets for Northern Trust ⛳
Reply With Quote
