Best bets for Sunday's NASCAR race at Bristol Motor Speedway


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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Bristol, Tennessee, on Sunday for the Food City presents the Supermarket Heroes 500.


Chase Elliott took home an elusive checkered flag in Thursday's Alsco Uniforms 500 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Who will win Sunday's event (3:30 p.m. ET) at Bristol Motor Speedway?


ESPN.com NASCAR senior writer Ryan McGee, Fantasy's Mike Clay, Stats & Info's Matthew Willis and editor Scott Symmes offer their best bets for the race.


Note: Odds from Caesars Sportsbook as of Friday unless otherwise noted.
Best bets

Erik Jones (15-1)

Symmes: Jones is going to win at Bristol; if not on Sunday, then real soon. Whether it's in Cup or Xfinity, Jones is usually a factor at the half-mile bullring. He appeared to have the car to beat in the final stage last August but slipped to a 22nd-place finish after scraping the wall in a battle for the lead. One of the first "Oh, wow, this kid is the real deal" moments of his Cup career came at Bristol. As a rookie in 2017, he won the pole for the August night race and led a whopping 260 laps before falling just short to Kyle Busch. He was also fifth in the 2018 night race. Jones has been running well of late, so look for his momentum and comfort level at Bristol to lead to good things Sunday.


Kurt Busch(18-1)

Symmes: Busch's Bristol mojo appears to be back. For the first time since 2010-11, he has reeled off three straight top-10s there, including his victory in the 2018 night race. He hasn't led a lot of laps during this recent stretch, but Busch is as savvy as they come at navigating 500 circuits at such a challenging track. So consider him a safe pick -- if there is such a thing a Bristol. Remember, this is a venue that helped Busch achieve star status early in his career (five wins in his first 11 starts), and now he's enjoying a late-career run of strong results. Don't sleep on him this weekend.


Kyle Busch (4-1)/Kurt Busch (18-1)


McGee: The Busch brothers should have to pay property tax at Bristol Motor Speedway, because between the two of them, they've owned the joint since 2002. Kyle is the obvious choice as the active leader in BMS wins with eight, including three over the past five races.


But don't be fooled by big bro Kurt's relatively low standing via the odds (18-1). He has rediscovered his bullring touch. It took 12 years between Bristol wins five and six, but that latest victory came less than two years ago (August 2018), and he's posted finishes of fifth, first, second and ninth over his past five starts.


Joey Logano (8-1)


Clay: This past March, Joey Logano took the checkered flag at Phoenix in a race that used the same short track aero package that will be seen this Sunday. In that race, he ranked first in pass differential. His victory was rooted in a mid-race surge from 26th position into the top five over a 50-lap green-flag run. At Bristol, Logano has a pair of victories and he's finished in the top-five in two of his past three attempts. He had an average running position of third in this race last season and led the field for over one quarter of the afternoon. He's an intriguing play at +800.

Denny Hamlin (6-1)


Willis: I might take the three Team Penske drivers before anybody else in the field, but if you're looking on another short-odds driver who could pay off, don't go to 4-1 Kyle Busch -- check out Hamlin instead. Hamlin won the most recent Cup series race at Bristol and is regarded as one of the best short-track drivers in NASCAR today. He will enter Sunday on a seven-race top-5 streak on short tracks (tracks measuring under a mile in length), including a pair of races at Bristol last season.

Ryan Blaney (12-1)

Willis: Team Penske was the beneficiary of Friday's qualifying draw; its drivers will roll out first, third and fourth on Sunday. Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski are both two-time Bristol winners, but I like their teammate Ryan Blaney, despite him having no wins and just one top-5 finish in nine starts at the track.


I'm not a firm believer in betting based on a driver's luck, instead focusing on performance. Blaney has led at least 100 laps in three of the past four Bristol races and is coming off a pair of top-5 finishes last week. Over the 2018-19 seasons, Blaney led 100 more laps at Bristol than any other driver.


While Logano (8-1) and Keselowski (10-1) are excellent bets for this weekend at Bristol, I like Blaney's price a little better and the dominance he's shown in spurts early in his career at the track.

Long shots

Matt DiBenedetto (30-1)

Willis: I was surprised to see DiBenedetto with odds this long, given that he finished runner-up in the last Bristol race, leading a race-high 93 laps while driving for Leavine Family Racing. In 2016, DiBenedetto finished sixth at Bristol driving for the underfunded BK Racing.


DiBenedetto is now racing for Wood Brothers Racing, a much more powerful team affiliated with Team Penske, of which I was so optimistic earlier. DiBenedetto is a steal at 30-1, given his strength on this circuit and his top-10 starting position.




Clay: At Bristol in 2016, Matt DiBenedetto charged from 17th in the waning laps to earn a sixth-place finish in an underfunded BK Racing car. In last year's Bristol night race, he had a win all but secured until lapped traffic allowed Denny Hamlin past with 12 laps to go. He carries a positive pass differential at Bristol across his five Cup Series seasons and he's now in the best equipment of his career. He had early-race success with this season's short track aero package in its debut at Phoenix this past March and finished 11th quickest, per racing analyst Kevin Matz. DiBenedetto starts inside the top 12 based on his car's owner points standing and is an excellent value at 30-1.

Ryan Newman (50-1)


Symmes: Roush Fenway Racing cars are usually competitive at Bristol, and Newman has been a solid performer there throughout his career. He has 19 top-10s at Bristol (tied for fourth among active drivers) and has finished no worse than 14th in any of his past six Bristol starts. He likely won't be discussed much in prerace, but if some of the usual Bristol stalwarts encounter problems (not uncommon at this track), Newman could find himself in position for a strong result -- or perhaps even a win.