Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Alistair Overeem vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)



Heavyweights on the bubble will wrap up the UFC's return to the nation's capital, with former UFC title contender Alistair Overeem taking on newcomer and potential UFC rookie of the year Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Both have deep kickboxing experience, and the matchup has all the ingredients for a quick and violent ending.


Betting odds are currently close and in some places have flipped, but regardless of who the favorite is on fight night, the matchup dynamics will keep prices close.


Early prelims begin at 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the main card at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.


Here is where I see some betting value on the card.


Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday.
Heavyweight Main Event: No. 6 Alistair Overeem (-110) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-120)

Tale Of The Tape

ALISTAIR OVEREEM JAIRZINHO ROZENSTRUIK
Last Fight Weight Class Heavyweight Heavyweight
Current Age 39 31
Height 76 74
Reach 80 78
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Analyzed Minutes 143 7
Standup striking offense
Total Knockdown Ratio (Scored : Received) 9:6 3:0
Distance Knockdown Rate 4.9% 66.7%
Head Jab Accuracy 64% 58%
Head Power Accuracy 49% 30%
Total Standup Strike Ratio 0.6 0.8
Striking defense
Total Head Strike Defense 70% 68%
Distance Knockdown Defense ("Chin") 95% 100%
Wrestling and grappling
TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch 0.15 0.00
Takedown Accuracy 33% N/A
Advances per Takedown/Top Control 1.2 0.0
Opponent Takedown Attempts 31 6
Takedown Defense 74% 67%
Share of Total Ground Time in Control 72% 14%
Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground 0.23 0.00
On paper, Rozenstruik won't give up much reach on Overeem and will come in the younger and far less damaged fighter. This is critical at heavyweight, where there's little room for error and not much time to wait out heavy-hitting opponents. If a slugfest starts out of the gates, Rozenstruik might be able to take a few shots, and Overeem's chin is unlikely to last the first salvo.


While Overeem is the more accurate puncher (and the most accurate power head striker in the UFC), he fights with a reserved pace, low hands and marginal defense. He has been dropped six times and knocked out several other times while on the ground.


That bodes well for Rozenstruik, who has knocked out all three of his opponents in the UFC in short order. The problem is that if he can't get the quick finish, Overeem could present problems in the clinch or on the ground. Overeem, though not normally a submission threat, might have the edge on the mat. But he isn't expected to suddenly turn into a grappler at this point in his career.


E+ recommends: Money-line lean on Rozenstruik; also his KO prop
Other fight card value

Lightweight: Cody Stamann (+160) vs. Song Yadong (-200)


Yadong is now 4-0 in the UFC and ranked No. 13 at bantamweight. He will take on the ninth-ranked Stamann, who has frequently leveraged his wrestling base to squeak out decisions against established talent. However, Yadong has also been solid on the mat to date while wielding a striking threat. He should do enough to deliver as a clear favorite.


E+ recommends: Money-line play on Yadong