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Best bets for Week 7 college football games 🏈
Best bets for Week 7 college football games
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Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the seventh full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Connelly: 12-6-1 (2-1 last week)
Kezirian: 22-17 (5-4 last week)
Johnson: 16-14-1 (3-2 last week)
Steele: 13-19 (4-1 last week)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
Thursday's game
ULM Warhawks (-3.5) at Texas State Bobcats
Johnson: I have seven sides that I really like this week, so I will keep these brief and offer up my personal projections on each game. I'm still a believer in this Texas State team, and coming off of a bye week following back-to-back wins isn't a time to shy away. I have this projected nearly a 50-50 game with the Bobcats +0.3, so getting the hook on a key number like three is automatic here.
ATS pick: Texas State +3.5
Friday's game
Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes (-2)
Kezirian: Miami will not begin this game as flat as it did against Virginia Tech, where it dug itself a 28-0 hole. However, I am not convinced the Hurricanes have much offensive firepower. Aside from the brand name and a catchy "turnover chain," there is not much to like with this inconsistent team. The defense has been somewhat impressive, but it has really shut down only weak teams. They could not get a stop to seal a win over UNC, and clearly the defense was porous against the Hokies.
N'Kosi Perry will start at quarterback in place of Jarren Williams. He looked better than Williams but not enough for me to change my opinion. I just love the situational spot for the Cavaliers. Virginia squandered chances to upset Notre Dame but now enters this game off a bye and is still undefeated in ACC play. I think UVA wins, but the better option is a teaser, especially with such a low total of 44. I envision a one-score game, so I will play my first college teaser in about two years.
Pick: Teaser of Virginia (+8) and Minnesota (-1.5)
Saturday's games
Florida Gators at LSU Tigers (-13.5)
Kezirian: Following Florida's impressive win over unbeaten Auburn, I was hoping this line would be closer to 10; unfortunately, no such luck. I still think this is a strong play, given the situation. The Tigers cruised to a home win over Utah State, and the Gators battled and grinded to beat Auburn. We have seen teams in these situations run out of gas the following week, and I think that happens here. Additionally, I just feel LSU is superior on both sides of the ball and it finally has an offense that can cover a big spread against a quality opponent.
The game might be close at halftime, but LSU should pull away and win by more than two touchdowns. It's just tough for me to envision Florida's backup quarterback playing that well in a night game at Death Valley.
ATS pick: LSU -13.5
Connelly: I guess if I'm going to write about how we've been underrating the Gators, I should put my Best Bets record where my mouth is. I'd obviously feel far more comfortable with this line at 14 points, but this is still another game in which the projection is far tighter than the line: SP+ projects LSU to win by 7.7, nearly six points lower.
Four of Florida's six results have come within a touchdown of the SP+ projection, and the two that didn't were examples of Gators overachievement -- they were projected to win by 18.6 against Tennessee and won by 31, and they were projected to win by 2.3 against Auburn and won by 11 (despite four turnovers).
It's easy to see how this pick goes awry, of course; LSU passes far better than anyone else Florida has played, and while the Tigers' tempo isn't exactly Josh Heupel-level, it's far faster than normal. If the Tigers find advantages, they could exploit them repeatedly. But Florida can score, too, and I'm going to keep thinking oddsmakers are underselling the Gators until they give me a reason not to.
ATS pick: Florida +13.5
South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs (-24.5)
Kezirian: This is a good spot to back South Carolina. The Gamecocks are off a bye and have a strong enough defense to prevent a complete blowout. Georgia is undoubtedly among the nation's best teams, but I have been fairly underwhelmed with the Bulldogs in certain areas. Their offensive line has struggled in some short-yardage situations against inferior opponents, and the offense seems to sputter more often than one would imagine. All of this is in relation to their lofty standards.
With a big number like this, Georgia's tendency to chew clock in the second half of one-sided games might allow a backdoor cover. They obviously have the talent to blow out the Gamecocks, but I think this is a good time to take the 'dog against the Dawgs.
ATS pick: South Carolina +24.5
Connelly: This pick is far more about South Carolina than Georgia -- the Dawgs are probably going to win pretty comfortably. But the Gamecocks were better than their score indicated the past two games.
I calculate an adjusted scoring margin for each game based on the key predictive indicators that go into SP+; the 20-point loss to Missouri should have been more like a seven-point loss, and the 17-point win over Kentucky was close to something far more dominant. And that was with freshman quarterback Ryan Hilinski dealing with an elbow injury. It was improving into Kentucky week, and the Gamecocks got a bye week after that.
South Carolina is a solid top-40 team, and SP+ projects Georgia with about a 19-point advantage. SP+ is hitting 60% against the spread in games in which it and the line are five or more points apart; they're at 5.6 in this one. If you're monitoring this in-game, pay attention to how well Georgia is running the ball. The Dawgs obviously have an awesome run game, and South Carolina's run front, though pretty efficient so far this year, is pretty banged up and thin. If D'Andre Swift is gaining seven or eight yards at will, this becomes far less of a best bet.
ATS pick: South Carolina +24.5
Oklahoma Sooners (-11) vs. Texas Longhorns (in Dallas)
Kezirian: Tom Herman is 13-3-1 ATS as an underdog, and Texas has covered in six straight Red River Rivalry games. As much as I love Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma has played soft defenses this year and been able to name the score. This Texas defense will show much more resistance, and I am not convinced Jalen Hurts is a polished passer. I trust his poise -- he played in huge games with Alabama -- but we will learn a lot about his passing ability Saturday. I also think the Longhorns might be a better team. I was thoroughly impressed with their performance in the loss to LSU, and I trust Herman and Sam Ehlinger to have enough to cover.
ATS pick: Texas +11
Penn State Nittany Lions (-3.5) at Iowa Hawkeyes
Steele: Kinnick Stadium at night can be a house of horrors for visiting teams. Iowa knocked off No. 2 Michigan in 2016 at night, and in 2017 beat No. 3 Ohio State 55-24. In its past eight home matchups against top-10 teams, Iowa is 4-4 straight up but has lost only one of those games by more than three points; they are getting 3.5 points here. Iowa was very uncharacteristic with a minus-3 turnover margin last week, but that was on the road and QB Nate Stanley had zero interceptions before last week. The Hawkeyes defense is giving up only 254 yards per game and held Michigan to 10 points last week. Iowa has taken on the tougher schedule, has the more veteran QB and pulls yet another upset in Kinnick.
ATS pick: Iowa +3.5
Score: Iowa 20, Penn State 17
Johnson: I project this game to be a pick 'em. Quarterback Nate Stanley mustered only three points for Iowa in Ann Arbor in their matchup against Michigan, but it was arguably the worst game of his career. The Hawkeyes' defense was in check (they've given up only 44 points through five games this season), and I think the best comparison to Iowa is a Pittsburgh team that Penn State struggled to put away at home earlier in the year. Iowa is better than Pittsburgh anyway, and the Hawkeyes are playing this one at Kinnick.
The current market number implies that the Nittany Lions are roughly 7-point favorites on a neutral field, and that just isn't the case at all, in my opinion. The Hawkeyes getting over a field goal is one of my biggest bets of the college football season.
ATS pick: Iowa +3.5
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-7.5)
Kezirian: I am not overreacting to last week's losing pick on Nebraska, as I suffered through the Huskers' failed cover against lowly Northwestern. I am just merely evaluating the data points, which portray a team that cannot string together four quality quarters. The Huskers are shaky on offense, and QB Adrian Martinez constantly looks skittish and lacks receivers who can get open. He is questionable for this game, but backup Noah Vedral is familiar with the offense, having transferred from UCF.
The defense has been respectable at times, but this team just is not good enough to face an undefeated Minnesota team on the road and keep this within one score. I realize the Gophers lack flash and have had some miraculous wins to remain undefeated, but they are still significantly more reliable and polished than Nebraska.
ATS pick: Minnesota -7.5
Steele: Martinez is questionable, but as Doug notes Vedral knows the offense well after spending time with Scott Frost at UCF. The Huskers could sneak in some reps for Luke McCaffrey (Christian's brother), who is one of the top athletes on the team. Vedral was thrust into action last week and led the winning drive against Northwestern. Nebraska has also taken on the much tougher schedule up to this point. Minnesota blew out Illinois last week and had 239 more yards; Nebraska beat Illinois by only four points despite outgaining the Illini 690-299.
Minnesota is 5-0 and No. 26 in the rankings and might start to feel a little pressure as the Gophers are beginning to earn national attention. Despite the soft schedule, only one of the Gophers' wins has been by more than seven points.
ATS pick: Nebraska +7.5
Score: Minnesota 31, Nebraska 30
Washington Huskies (-6.5) at Arizona Wildcats
Steele: Washington has a young defense, and through three Pac-12 games this year, they are giving up 387 yards per game (compared to the 305 they gave up last year). The Huskies are allowing 4.3 yards per carry, which is the highest of the Chris Petersen era. Quarterback Jacob Eason has been great in nonconference games, completing 78% of his passes with a 10-1 TD-INT ratio. However, in three Pac-12 games he is completing 54% with just a 1-2 TD-INT ratio. Washington is 1-2 in conference play and traveling for a second straight week. Arizona is atop the Pac-12 South standings, and last week dynamic QB Khalil Tate returned and threw for 404 yards in the win over Colorado. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the previous 10 matchups, winning eight of the past nine outright.
ATS pick: Arizona +6.5
Score: Arizona 31, Washington 30
Maryland Terrapins (-3) at Purdue Boilermakers
Steele: Maryland has been somewhat predictable in the past two years. When matched up against an average to below-average rush defense, the Terrapins look unstoppable. Maryland has topped 165 yards rushing in nine games the previous two years and put up 50.8 PPG in those contests. But when facing a solid rush defense, the Terps struggle. Purdue lost its top two defenders this year and is allowing opponents to gain 56 yards per game above their season average.
My computer has Maryland topping 200 rushing yards in this game. Though QB Josh Jackson is out for Maryland, Tyrrell Pigrome started at Texas in 2017 and against Ohio State last year, and the Terps put up 51 points in each of those games. Purdue has a weak rushing attack, averaging just 51 yards per game on the ground and 1.9 yards per carry. The Boilermakers lost starting QB Elijah Sindelar against Minnesota, and unlike Maryland, there is a significant drop-off without him under center. The Boilermakers have totaled eight first downs in each of Jack Plummer's two starts, and averaged only 154 yards per game. Purdue is banged up on the offensive line and at receiver this week, to go along with its QB and defensive injuries.
ATS pick: Maryland -3
Score: Maryland 34, Purdue 17
North Texas Mean Green at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-4)
Connelly: We'll consider this North Texas' last stand as far as SP+ is concerned. It projected the Mean Green as one of the better teams in Conference USA, and they've oscillated between rewarding that faith (42-point win over UTSA, solid six-point loss at Cal) and making it seem totally unfounded (22-point loss to SMU, 21-point loss to D'Eriq King-less Houston). They've been as high as 54th and as low as 91st so far; SP+ favors UNT by 2.1 in this one, but it doesn't have a great read on the Mean Green just yet.
Southern Miss, however, has been a far more steady entity. The SP+ projection has been within nine points of the final margin in all five games so far, and if that were to continue, that suggests a range of outcomes from about USM by 7 to UNT by 9. Most of that range falls within covering North Texas.
ATS pick: North Texas +4
Ball State Cardinals at Eastern Michigan Eagles (PK)
Steele: Last week's results give up some solid line value here. Ball State is playing well this year and is coming off a big road upset over Northern Illinois but has to go back on the road this week. Last week, Ball State trailed the Huskies 17-3 at the half and was outgained 388-269 but came out on top. Eastern Michigan was coming off a bye week and looked sluggish in its 42-16 road loss to Central Michigan. On Sept. 14, the Eagles went on the road and beat Illinois 34-31 in a game they led 31-17. The next week at home, they struggled to beat an FCS team, as most teams suffer a letdown after a big upset.
The Eagles have won five of their past six MAC home games on the gray turf of Rynearson Stadium, while Ball State is 3-14 straight up on the road in MAC play the past five years. Eastern Michigan has wins over Ball State by 42 and 22 points, respectively, in the teams' past two meetings. The Eagles were the underdog earlier in the week, so they will feel like a home underdog and are in a must-win situation.
ATS pick: Eastern Michigan (PK)
Score: Eastern Michigan 34, Ball State 28
Toledo Rockets (-26) at Bowling Green Falcons
Johnson: I have been fortunate enough to stay away from this Bowling Green trainwreck to this point in the season (0-4 ATS against FBS opponents). It's one thing to lose 52-0 on the road to Kansas State and Notre Dame, but it's another to lose by 42 at Kent State. The Falcons are in a battle with UConn and UTEP for the right to be the third-worst team in college football this season. Considering I haven't shown any value in recent weeks to bet on Bowling Green despite its troubles, I have to trust my numbers here and take the 26 points.
I project the Falcons at +22.7 in the matchup, and that doesn't account for the fact that quarterback Grant Loy could be taking over for Darius Wade under center (he looked better against the Irish last Saturday, and clearly Wade wasn't effective in his five starts this season). Bowling Green has never been a home underdog of 26 points or more, and I think they'll keep it within the number.
ATS pick: Bowling Green +26
Memphis Tigers (-6) at Temple Owls
Johnson: I thought the opener on Sunday afternoon at Temple +3.5 was very close to fair. My projection is +3.3, so a move to +6 against the better defense playing at home with extra days to prepare coming off of a Thursday night game has me a little perplexed. Memphis was actually outgained by 40 yards last week against UL Monroe despite winning the game 52-33. The Tigers are the better team, but they shouldn't be laying a touchdown on the road in Philadelphia.
ATS pick: Temple +6
San Jose State Spartans at Nevada Wolf Pack (-2)
Johnson: This line implies that San Jose State is the better football team on a neutral field. I know the Spartans won outright as a massive underdog in Fayetteville, Arkansas, and they covered as a favorite against a lowly New Mexico team this past Saturday (but were plus-nine in turnovers in those two contests), but I still project the Wolf Pack as the superior team. Coming off of a 51-point home loss to Hawaii is no joke, and that's certainly playing a role in the market reaction to Nevada. My projection is Wolf Pack -6.4, and I'm willing to bet that after an extra week to prepare and sit on the Hawaii loss, we get their best effort.
ATS pick: Nevada -2
USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-11)
Johnson: With Kedon Slovis getting cleared to play against the Irish this Saturday, I think the Trojans are a buy at +11. He's definitely an upgrade over third-string quarterback Matt Fink, and my projection comes in at +8.7. I'm still not overly impressed with the Notre Dame results to this point, and I'm fine going back to the well betting against the Irish after splitting the two Virginia bets two weeks ago. The Cavaliers led the game outright at halftime, but two Bryce Perkins fumbles for Irish touchdowns and five turnovers in all swung that game Notre Dame's way. I expect the Trojans to keep the turnovers in check with Slovis under center and the game in single digits.
ATS pick: USC +11
Wyoming Cowboys at San Diego State Aztecs (-3.5)
Johnson: I didn't understand the Colorado State money coming in last Saturday against the Aztecs pushing the line from +7.5 down to +6.5. I jumped in to lay the short number and never really needed to sweat. I disagree with the market valuation of San Diego State here. I make this line -6.3, and I'm fine betting against a Wyoming football team getting outgained by 55.3 yards per game despite its 4-1 record.
ATS pick: San Diego State -3.5
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