[Hman]

Best bets for Eagles-Packers
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)

The 2019 NFL season is in full swing, and we're here with a betting preview for Thursday's game between the 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles and 3-0 Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

ESPN betting analysts Preston Johnson and Joe Fortenbaugh along with Fantasy's Mike Clay combine to offer their best bets for the matchup of an Eagles team trying to get on track and a Packers team looking to extend its perfect start.

Note: Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Odds as of Sept 25.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4, 45.5)


Aaron Rodgers under 0.5 interceptions (-175)


Clay: The juice here is ugly at -175, but Rodgers simply doesn't throw interceptions. In fact, he has zero in three games this season, and in 2018, he became the first player in NFL history to attempt 450 or more passes and throw fewer than four interceptions in a season.

Meanwhile, the Eagles managed only 10 interceptions last season with essentially the same secondary, and though they have three interceptions this season, they are down their top-two corners (Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills) for this game. Additionally, Green Bay is favored in this game, so the game script could help keep Rodgers' attempts in check. As is, Rodgers is attempting 31.0 passes per game in 2019, which is a career low and more than three attempts per game below his career average. Caesars gives Rodgers a 64% chance to throw zero interceptions, whereas I come in at 70%.


Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 3.5 receptions (-125)



Clay: Valdes-Scantling has emerged as Green Bay's clear No. 2 wide receiver this season. The second-year wideout has been on the field for 86% of the team's pass plays and is handling a hefty 25% target share. The Eagles, meanwhile, have allowed the ninth-most completions to wide receivers this season and have been especially bad against outside receivers. Of the six starting perimeter receivers they've faced so far, five have reached four catches and four have reached five. (The exception was Kenny Golladay.) Valdes-Scantling has aligned outside on 87% of his routes and has seen six-plus targets in all three games, posting catch totals of three, four and six along the way. I have Valdes-Scantling closer to 4.3 receptions this week, so the over is the place to be.

Packers team total over 24 points


Fortenbaugh: Philadelphia's defense travels to Green Bay facing the Daily Double of unfortunate circumstances: injuries combined with a short week of preparation. That's a troubling situation for a team to find itself, especially one that currently ranks 19th in opponent yards per play (5.9) and has surrendered 24 or more points in all three contests it has played this season.

On the flip side, Green Bay's new-look offense under rookie head coach Matt LaFleur has made steady improvement each time it has taken the field this September:

Week 1: 3.73 yards per play, 10 points
Week 2: 4.85 yards per play, 21 points
Week 3: 6.0 yards per play, 27 points

I'm anticipating another step in the right direction Thursday night against a suspect Philadelphia defense that already has permitted seven touchdown passes on the season.

[2daBank]

I bet the over. I hate playin over on Thursday night but think it the right play here.

Packs d getting a ton of attention and while i thought they would be a boarder line top 10 unit coming into the season let’s be real on who they have played. They have faced trubisky, cousins, and Flacco! Not exactly a bunch of offensive powerhouses!! Even banged up eagles offense is a huge step up in class for the pack d, they will be tested tonight.

A lot has also been made of the pack offense, the lafluer/Rodgers flare ups and all that nonsense. Look at the defenses they have faced! 3 top 5 type units imo (although donks d hasn’t played like it yet), all while breaking in a new system and without doing much of any work in preseason. Imo the offense will continue improving and much like the defense getting its 1st real test the offense actually gets some class relief tonight, Philly d is nowhere close to as good as the 1st 3 teams on packs schedule.

To me this looks like a game both teams can put up mid 20s, I think it take 27 to win this thing, imo circumstance has this total 4-5 points lower than we would typically see for a matchup w these teams (I made it 51)..

[clockwise1965]

I like the over here as well 2banks. I like your breakdown.

[2daBank]

I like the over here as well 2banks. I like your breakdown.

Thanks.

I’d seriously love this if it was Sunday. I hate these thu night games so much, always scared teams will play sluggish the 1st qrtr +. Then it be too late for over once they wake up. That said still think it worth a play since I made it so much higher and pack been incredibly quick starters. Hoping they jump on Philly so eagles have to play catch up.

[MisterSack]

Yikes my over 3.5 receptions for Marquez is -180

[gauchojake]

80% chance of rain

[Jkon9]

80% chance of rain

0% chance of rain lol

[gauchojake]

Report I just read said 80%

Good to know

Hey SBR fix your shit

[jjgold]

Best play packers ML

Can’t miss

[MisterSack]

Just put two tiddies on over 47

[clockwise1965]

20% chance of slight showers. According to Google.

[gauchojake]

Yeah the SBR odds matchup has the chance of rain wrong. I should have double checked. Annoyed.

[Art Vandelay]

20% chance of slight showers. According to Google.

I'm up here - Sunny 67 degrees now, clouds tonight, no rain.