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Early Look At NFL Week 1 Betting Line Moves 🏈
NFL Week 1 early betting look: Line moves I agree with
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I arrived at the Red Rock sportsbook in Las Vegas this past Saturday at 8:45 a.m., like I have nearly every Saturday for the past few years. But for the first time in my life, there wasn't a seat available. Even the reserved VIP seating was completely booked.
On the first full weekend of college football, there were crowds of Florida State and Boise State fans standing and cheering from the back of the sportsbook for the entire slate of morning games. The notion that sports betting in Las Vegas is dying because it has become legal in other states is completely and utterly false. Football is back -- and I couldn't help but smile as I stood there breathing in the Week 1 air.
We now have Week 1 of the NFL regular season on deck, and while the market has been up for a good part of the summer, there is still value in a handful of games. I'm going to break down the summer moves I agree and disagree with, and tell you about the team I've invested in the most this preseason.
Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 1 line movement I agree with
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 at Minnesota Vikings
Projection: Falcons +2.1
Market open: Falcons +4.5
I'm extremely bullish on the Falcons this season compared to the current futures markets, so it's not a surprise that I also see value in Week 1. I don't have anything negative to say about the Vikings entering the new season, but the current spread implies that they are the better team on a neutral field -- I don't think that is the case. There are plenty of +4s around still that are worth grabbing. As usual, it's always worth shopping for the best number possible.
Philadelphia Eagles -9.5 vs. Washington Redskins
Projection: Eagles -10.7
Market open: Eagles -8
This game has moved to -9.5 at many places now, and I would ultimately be surprised if it doesn't reach double-digits by kickoff. My projection is still higher than the key number of 10, and it appears that Washington may be even worse than I initially anticipated. I don't make adjustments to my numbers after the preseason unless it is injury-related, but it certainly seems like there is more downside to this team than upside this season (especially with the Trent Williams situation still unresolved).
I was thrilled to buy on my third-highest rated team in the NFC playing in their Week 1 home-opener against my second-worst rated team at -8.5 (only the Cardinals rate lower).
Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 at New England Patriots
Projection: Steelers +4.6
Market open: Steelers +6
The spread in this matchup is trending downward, but +6s are still the most common number in the marketplace. At +6 or better, I think this is a buy on Pittsburgh. I've been overly cautious with my projections for the Steelers after losing Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell for good, and the Patriots are notorious for seemingly taking the first few weeks off in recent seasons as they ease everybody into playing shape (they lost to the Jaguars and Lions in 2018, and the Chiefs and Panthers in 2017). I expect this game to be close, and I don't think anybody would be surprised by a Pittsburgh outright win. I took the six points.
Houston Texans +7 at New Orleans Saints
Projection: Texans +5.0
Market open: Texans +7.5
The Saints are just 1-9 against the spread in the first two weeks of the season the past five years under Sean Payton. In fact, they are 1-9 straight up over those same games. I don't look for trends to bet on or against, but like New England, New Orleans likes to take its time getting its regular-season feet wet. My number in this game is two points lower anyway (I'm more bearish on the Saints than the market and have bet their under 10.5 season wins as well), so I'm happy to take the full seven points on a key number before this potentially hits +6.5.
Week 1 line movement I disagree with
Cincinnati Bengals +9.5 at Seattle Seahawks
Projection: Bengals +7.9
Market open: Bengals +7.5
I'm not entirely surprised by the move up on Seattle after AJ Green suffered an injury and will be out Week 1. I'm not rushing to bet Cincinnati yet, however, but if this line reached +10 I'd have to jump in.
In their first eight games last season, the Bengals were 5-3 and averaged 27.6 points per game; with Green and Andy Dalton missing significant time those final eight games, they finished the year 1-7. They've finally replaced Marvin Lewis with new head coach Zac Taylor, and I think his offense could offer plenty of upside (he has been an assistant with the Rams under Sean McVay). Tyler Boyd emerged as a serious offensive weapon (fourth among receivers in the NFL in DVOA), so with the rest of the roster outside of Green intact we shouldn't expect to see the same team from the back-half of the 2018 season here in Week 1.
Oakland Raiders PK vs. Denver Broncos
Projection: Raiders -1.4
Market open: Raiders -3
This isn't enough of a discrepancy yet for me to consider backing the Raiders, but I do think it's an intriguing market assessment. The reason I'm somewhat bearish on Oakland this season as a whole is because of its ridiculously difficult schedule. As a result, the Raiders aren't likely to win many games, but from a game-to-game perspective, I don't think a three-point move like this was warranted. I still rate the Raiders similar to teams like the Jets, Lions and Broncos on a neutral field. Now again, I am not betting Oakland at pick-em, but I do think it could mean we have opportunities in the near future to back them if the market continues to disrespect them week-to-week.
The team I have invested in the most this season:
Falcons to win the Super Bowl +4000, NFC South +325 and over 8.5 wins -140
I have bet the Falcons in every way this summer. Early-season injuries to Ricardo Allen, Keanu Neal and Deion Jones (along with others on defense) derailed Atlanta's playoff hopes from the get-go. The Falcons recovered fumbles at just a 37.8 percent rate (only the Vikings were lower this past season). Historically "fumble luck," or the expectation of recovering a fumble once it hits the ground, is a true 50-50 split whether the team is playing offense or defense. We should expect some positive regression there. Atlanta's opponents also made every single one of their field goal attempts last season, the first time that has occurred in the NFL since 2010.
The Falcons addressed their weakness on the offensive line with free-agent signings and two first-round draft picks, and Atlanta gets to play 13 of its 16 games in dome this year. The offense is set up perfectly to succeed and the defense will almost certainly be healthier. Remember, Dan Quinn and the Falcons were a historic collapse away from winning the Super Bowl in 2017. They were four plays on first-and-goal against Philadelphia late in the fourth quarter from returning to the NFC championship Game. The Eagles wound up winning the Super Bowl. This Atlanta team is one of the most talented in the NFL, and seemingly overlooked entering the season because they went only 7-9 in an injury-ridden season, breaking regression models.
I project the Falcons to win 9.6 games, win the NFC South 30.4 percent of the time (+229), and win the Super Bowl 6.0 percent of the time (+1567). None of those projections account for the injury to Cam Newton in the preseason. I see a ton of value on the Falcons across the board ... so I bet the board.
Week 1 lesson to be learned: Don't overreact
One of the biggest mistakes a bettor can make is betting the NFL in Week 2 based on the results of Week 1. Not only is it a worryingly small sample to base your decision-making process on, but it would require paying a premium anyway because the market often overreacts as well. If anything, I'm looking to play on teams that performed under expectation in Week 1, or against teams that overachieved.
I'll be writing a "behind the box score" analysis each week again this season, and I'll break down the games in which the final score doesn't tell the real story. This will help us avoid overreacting to results from week-to-week and improve our betting process.
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Originally Posted by ChiLLx
