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Kansas St +3.5
I’ve used this logic on this forum before, with mostly observed success. My all time favorite situational play. Simply, the situation is in conference play, betting the higher rated team on the road in the last game of a two game series when the higher rated team dropped home floor earlier in the season in an ugly to less than stellar fashion and the team who dropped home court is a top 75 overall team.
On the surface this might look ugly, but if you look deeper I think K-state is the right side here. Forget about the number next to their name for a minute. A few weeks ago, K-state lost by 20 at home to Texas in what was actually a much closer game than the scoreboard would lead you to believe. Despite Texas having a statistical outlier of a shooting night from 3, shooting 20 points better than their season to date average with the help of Febres (a Texas bench player) who had a career day, going 7-9 from 3. Febres dropped 23 points, about 3 times his season to date average points per game. All of that said, K-State was within 5 through three quarters of the game, only to get beat down the stretch by 15. Also, in the first matchup, K-state was without their senior leader and significant contributor Dean Wade, an individual who presently accounts for roughly 20-25% of their possessions used, a kid who has been absolutely killing it since his return. Honestly, you could make an argument that K-state is the best team in the Big 12 right now with all of KU’s injuries. As it sits, K-State is a legitimate contender for the regular season Big 12 title and has a legitimate shot at a 2-4 seed in the tournament. Even though they have been rolling of late, I don’t think they forgot getting embarrassed on their home court earlier in the season, and they’re going to come out with max motivation. Using the spread as a measurement of expectations, K-state has been one of the best teams in college hoops, going 7-1 ATS in their last 8, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Big 12 games. Finally, when you extrapolate the line, let’s say 3-4 points for home court in this matchup, the line says that these two are around a PK on a neutral? I don’t think so. K-state huge.
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Originally Posted by Shutup
