[DJK]

In other words, the current line for the Chargers vs the Ravens is -3 Baltimore.

But, it's the Chargers +3-120 making it more expensive to take the Chargers.

So, when it's like that, on which side are people betting more percentage and money wise that the book has made it more expensive to take the Chargers +3 at -120?

I have been trying to figure this out for years and it finally dawned on me last night what it is, but I would like to hear from others if anyone already knows for sure to see if I'm right or wrong.

[DJK]

I have been trying to find out for years a good source of where the public money is going or at least on which side more money is being bet on.

I've used SBR odds and Sports Insights, but I came to realize that they are not accurate and can't be relied on.

I don't know why I didn't see it all these years with these higher juiced lines, which I originally thought it was like that to just balance the bets but I think it's more than that especially when it's juiced higher on one side and stays that way. If it's consensus across all books, then it's even more obvious what the books are doing.

I always hated taking the side with the higher juice, who would? But, in the end, that's the better side to take even it costs you more since you are basically going against the public.

[pilebuck13]

Don’t put to much thought into it

[LT Profits]

You usually only see juiced lines like that on key numbers the book does not went to get off of, most commonly -2.5, +/-3, +3.5., -6.5, +/-7 and +7.5. Books like 5 Dimes also juice their teaser protection lines rather than move to a favorable teaser number.

[Sam Odom]

be careful of 'head fakes'

[DJK]

Actually, what dawned on me last night about these higher juiced odds on one side tells me everything I want to know.

It's not conclusive with Indy and Seattle, but with the Chargers vs the Ravens it's very obvious to me.

Both SBR and Sports Insights are showing higher percentage bets 62% and 73% on the Chargers and yet the Chargers spread of +3 is higher juiced -115 and -119 (5Dimes and BookMaker) when you would think it should be the other way around.

That only means the more money is on the Ravens and also more likely the public as well and those 62% and 73% are bs numbers.

I may have to change my stand on the Ravens pick and flip.

[jjgold]

never reads into any lines

Numbers are there for a reason

never ever pay attention to public money because very inaccurate

[DJK]

When I go to Sugar House to place my bet for this afternoon games, I'm going to look for the clerk who told me that everyone was on Notre Dame and ask what he sees as the trend on today's bets and bet accordingly. See if that works.

[Brutus84]

A line -3 +100 tells me the Chargers will win the game more likely than not. I think Ravens win though but I will not bet the game. Also, 2h lines are the best indicators of who is going to win games. Like Michigan vs Ohio State game. Michigan who was the favorite in the game was down 5 at half and I believe 2h line was like -3. I knew right there Michigan wasn’t coming back.

[shocka1212]

line is just how the book thinks public will react to the game, not how they actually see the matchup

[DJK]

According to ScoresandOdds, Dallas opened at -3+105, but it's showing -2.5-120 at Vegasinsider and SBR, so what the true opening line is debatable but -2.5-120 is probably accurate.

I'm trying to make a 2 team teaser play and my original picks were Indy and Seattle, but the banker's opinion on the Seattle game has me undecided on that leg and possibly leaning towards Dallas, which means I'm crossing 0 with my teaser bet.

Either I stick with my original picks or take Dallas and bet less. I was planning on $600 to win $500.

[DJK]

line is just how the book thinks public will react to the game, not how they actually see the matchup

I know banker has you convinced to take Dallas when you liked Seattle to begin with, so I'm in the same boat. I'm making a teaser bet, so it's a bit easier with Seattle but banker also thinks Seattle is the wrong teaser side which could be true.

I might have to just ask my kids and go with it instead. Just as much 50 50 as anything else. At least it's my kids.

[Sam Odom]

[cincinnatikid513]

u should bet womens basketball -120 both sides beaver is expensive

[DJK]

I just asked my two little girls and they both said Seattle Seahawks and they know nothing about either teams, so Seattle it is.

They are 8 year and 6 year old kids and usually the first team I name is what sticks to them to pick, so I said "Dallas Cowboys or Seattle Seahawks" and they both said Seattle Seahawks. So there it is.

[ekrazee33]

That there is a thread debating this is proof of an efficient market

[DJK]

I just asked my two little girls and they both said Seattle Seahawks and they know nothing about either teams, so Seattle it is.

They are 8 year and 6 year old kids and usually the first team I name is what sticks to them to pick, so I said "Dallas Cowboys or Seattle Seahawks" and they both said Seattle Seahawks. So there it is.

When in doubt, I just ask my little girls and they are money.

[peacebyinches]

It’s to balance action

[DJK]

It’s to balance action

Yes, that I know, but it tells you more than that if the line is juiced higher on the same side and it's consensus across the board on all books.

It's just highly unlikely that all bettors at all books bet the same way as it's normally juiced differently from one book to another, but there are times when the line and the higher juice is the same on all books and they are consensus. That's when I have to go with the higher juiced teams as I see them covering more often than not.

I see that trend as books wanting you to bet the other side that public is on and the wrong side.

[peacebyinches]

Yes, that I know, but it tells you more than that if the line is juiced higher on the same side and it's consensus across the board on all books.

It's just highly unlikely that all bettors at all books bet the same way as it's normally juiced differently from one book to another, but there are times when the line and the higher juice is the same on all books and they are consensus. That's when I have to go with the higher juiced teams as I see them covering more often than not.

I see that trend as books wanting you to bet the other side that public is on and the wrong side.

I truly did believe this too, (and admittedly still kind of do) but I’ve got no numbers to back this up... and rationally its more likely we are succumbing to the almighty confirmation bias

[thechaoz]

That there is a thread debating this is proof of an efficient market

Go on...,.

[DJK]

I truly did believe this too, (and admittedly still kind of do) but I’ve got no numbers to back this up... and rationally its more likely we are succumbing to the almighty confirmation bias

I am going to have to start tracking this. I know it does not happen too often, but if it's win ratio is high enough then it may be worthwhile for me to do and I won't have to do it manually as I would just write a code to do it for me and alert me via email when it happens and I just make the bets.

One that stands out for me is when OU played Texas in Big 12 championship game where all of sudden all books moved the line to OU -9.5 at the same time and it was consensus across all books. Except for Bovada.lv, all books had higher juice on OU as well even with that high of spread against Texas. Then, sure enough OU covered the game and I know lots of people lost on that game.

[DJK]

Something else that bothers me about tomorrow's lines is that not like today's NFL games where books were all different on the spreads, it's pretty much consensus with the Ravens -3 and the Bears -6.5 across all books and the lines are not budging.

Like what I posted on another thread, the clerk at Sugarhouse who took my bet told me the majority of people are betting the Chargers and it's been like that the whole week and yet the line hasn't moved an inch. What the hell does that mean???

I took that as the books wanting the public to keep on betting the Chargers, so I made a small bet on the Ravens and the Bears ML parlay. If I lose, then so be it but if I'm guessing right then free money.