1. #1
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,798
    Betpoints: 84

    12-20-18 : Write-up & Selection

    It's time for me to finally start posting some plays & analysis again.

    So we have two teams here trending in the opposite direction, which was nearly a month ago since they both have played as are all teams in this same predicament going into their prospective or non-prospective bowl games. I don't have a strong lean on any side of this game as far as who wins or who covers. I do in-fact like a few reasons to take the Over 51 with these two teams. 1st reason would be this USF defense is ranked in the bottom of the barrel with both points & yards. The game is at home for USF , so I believe they can stay in this game & put up some points vs Marshall in the 27-31 range. I have Marshall scoring 30+ points easily as well to put this total well over it's position @ 51. I also like the fact it has been steamed down to 3-4 points from it's once high point of 55. One last spot trend reason to play this game is the betting public is correct when moving the total in USF games 42.3% of the time since 1992.
    (66-90) So that gives us a 58% edge on this pretty large sample size betting trend.

    Take the Over @ 51 Marshall vs USF tonight !

  2. #2
    Chi_archie
    GASPING FOR AIR
    Chi_archie's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-22-08
    Posts: 63,130
    Betpoints: 2380

    Get em

  3. #3
    Hman
    Hman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-04-17
    Posts: 21,429
    Betpoints: 1222

    GL with the play

  4. #4
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,798
    Betpoints: 84

    Quote Originally Posted by Hman View Post
    GL with the play
    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    Get em
    Thank you both !!

  5. #5
    A Quant
    A Quant's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-14-18
    Posts: 1,227
    Betpoints: 4967

    Good luck man! Cash it!

  6. #6
    jtoler
    jtoler's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-17-13
    Posts: 30,967
    Betpoints: 6337

    no telling but under prob better play

  7. #7
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,798
    Betpoints: 84

    Quote Originally Posted by jtoler View Post
    no telling but under prob better play
    I appreciate your input. Do you have at least one reason why to take the under ?

  8. #8
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,798
    Betpoints: 84

    Quote Originally Posted by A Quant View Post
    Good luck man! Cash it!
    Thanks my dude !

  9. #9
    jts1207
    jts1207's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-15-16
    Posts: 8,011
    Betpoints: 242

    Get it Jerky!

  10. #10
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,798
    Betpoints: 84

    Quote Originally Posted by jts1207 View Post
    Get it Jerky!

  11. #11
    jtoler
    jtoler's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-17-13
    Posts: 30,967
    Betpoints: 6337

    Quote Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk View Post
    I appreciate your input. Do you have at least one reason why to take the under ?
    its a tornado watch and raining like cats and dogs in tampa not sure if there wont be cancellations before or during the game not sure if there will be lightning or not

  12. #12
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,798
    Betpoints: 84

    Quote Originally Posted by jtoler View Post
    its a tornado watch and raining like cats and dogs in tampa not sure if there wont be cancellations before or during the game not sure if there will be lightning or not
    Yeah we will see if this puts a profound affect on the scoring as more times than not this is the case.

  13. #13
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,798
    Betpoints: 84

    I think this helps USF run the ball extremely more affective & USF's Defense is non-existent at times so even during shitty weather, I still feel Marshall puts up 30 or more.
    Last edited by BeatTheJerk; 12-20-18 at 12:20 PM.

  14. #14
    funnyb25
    Go Get Laid Man!
    funnyb25's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-09-09
    Posts: 39,622
    Betpoints: 24008

    BOL Jerky

  15. #15
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,798
    Betpoints: 84

    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    BOL Jerky

  16. #16
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 4,101
    Betpoints: 2888

    Quote Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk View Post
    It's time for me to finally start posting some plays & analysis again.

    So we have two teams here trending in the opposite direction, which was nearly a month ago since they both have played as are all teams in this same predicament going into their prospective or non-prospective bowl games. I don't have a strong lean on any side of this game as far as who wins or who covers. I do in-fact like a few reasons to take the Over 51 with these two teams. 1st reason would be this USF defense is ranked in the bottom of the barrel with both points & yards. The game is at home for USF , so I believe they can stay in this game & put up some points vs Marshall in the 27-31 range. I have Marshall scoring 30+ points easily as well to put this total well over it's position @ 51. I also like the fact it has been steamed down to 3-4 points from it's once high point of 55. One last spot trend reason to play this game is the betting public is correct when moving the total in USF games 42.3% of the time since 1992.
    (66-90) So that gives us a 58% edge on this pretty large sample size betting trend.


    Take the Over @ 51 Marshall vs USF tonight !
    sorry for bumping in can you explain what that means or how it will affect this game or how is it relevant to this particular game, Not being a smart ass sincerely asking cause I dont understand that part.

  17. #17
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,798
    Betpoints: 84

    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    sorry for bumping in can you explain what that means or how it will affect this game or how is it relevant to this particular game, Not being a smart ass sincerely asking cause I dont understand that part.
    It's completely random Dan. If you're a trend player then it's an angle. It means when the total in USF games since 1992 are steamed by the public either over or under then that game wins 42.3% of the time.

  18. #18
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,849
    Betpoints: 7576

    Jerky!!!!!


  19. #19
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 4,101
    Betpoints: 2888

    Quote Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk View Post
    It's completely random Dan. If you're a trend player then it's an angle. It means when the total in USF games since 1992 are steamed by the public either over or under then that game wins 42.3% of the time.
    and this something that would help you make a decision on a game today or influence your decision one way or another? and if so why? I dont get it

  20. #20
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,798
    Betpoints: 84

    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    and this something that would help you make a decision on a game today or influence your decision one way or another? and if so why? I dont get it
    Bruh it was an additive incentive at the tail end of my write-up. If you don’t understand why it could possibly help my wager by now, then “fa get about it” pal.

  21. #21
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 4,101
    Betpoints: 2888

    cool sorry to bother you just thought it was an interesting thing to include in the write up, anyway thanks for the info!

  22. #22
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,798
    Betpoints: 84

    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    cool sorry to bother you just thought it was an interesting thing to include in the write up, anyway thanks for the info!
    Good luck with your NBA thread.
    Points Awarded:

    danshan11 gave BeatTheJerk 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  23. #23
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,798
    Betpoints: 84

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Jerky!!!!!

    KVB you’re my hero you Stat & Analytics Nerd with Swag !!!

  24. #24
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,798
    Betpoints: 84

    Cash Money

  25. #25
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Yes!!

    Good job

  26. #26
    BeatTheJerk
    BeatTheJerk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-07
    Posts: 31,798
    Betpoints: 84

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Yes!!

    Good job
    Thanks old pal !!!

Top