[Alfa1234]

Starting tomorrow, I will proove it's not. Purely math based betting. I will post regularly, but mostly at the end of the day because during the day I'll be busy with models and calculations. This means a lot of the picks will be posted after the plays, but some will be posted before the plays are done.

You will see I am mostly beating the closing line on picks.

All bets are placed at a local bookie. I won't reveal the name but can post a bet ticket with the bookie name blurred out. I can only post my losing tickets though, because the winning tickets are taken when redeemed. In rare cases I can post a winning bet if I had it in my hands before the game is played. Usually that means the game is a few days away. I bet through the phone, which is why I don't have the tickets all the time.

I often have multiple tickets for a single game because of betting limits.

Ask me for pics of the losing tickets and I'll give them to you. This can take several days because I don't pick up the tickets every day.

I hope this thread will put the discussion of what you need to do to win long term to rest. It's simple...you have to beat the closing line.

I'll simplify the thread by using a fixed 1 unit staking plan for each bet regardless of odds, but the real numbers are somewhat different.

Tailing will not be possible because the line will have moved by the time the bets have been posted.

[daneblazer]

Thanks and good luck

[Alfa1234]

Picks 31 august were:

Kazma Al Tadamon X2 at 3.85 L
Neman Grodna Kometa 1 at 3.05 W
Mlada Boleslav Karvina U19 X2 at 1.95 W
Getafe Valladolid U9.5 corners at 2.19 L
South Melbourne Port Melbourne X2 at 2.02
Newcastle Saracens 2 -6 at 1.87
Pyunik Lori Vanadzor 1 at 2.92
Universidad Catolica El Nacional X2 at 1.78
Montpellier La Rochelle 2 +13 at 1.87
Worcester London Wasps 1 at 3.2
Worcester London Wasps 1 +7 at 1.87

[Hugh Madbrough]

11 bets in one day, though?

[shadymcgrady]

[Alfa1234]

11 bets in one day, though?

Friday is busy because of soccer, Saturdays can be a lot more. Tuesdays and Thursdays will be very slow and I often take them off.

[mdunlap3]

Randomness wins. Sorry man. You can’t solve this math problem.

[danshan11]

dude what you dont get is, if you win in a small sample size you are a hero and legend and if you lose in a small sample the thread will die. some dont or wont even care to look at the line, trust me!

[Alfa1234]

dude what you dont get is, if you win in a small sample size you are a hero and legend and if you lose in a small sample the thread will die. some dont or wont even care to look at the line, trust me!

I'll keep posting even after a losing week. Math wins in the end.

[jjgold]

It’s very very hard unless you’re incorporating arbing and bonuses

The only other way long term is spot betting but that’s very hard to be that disciplined

[grease lightnin]

So... you are gonna post your picks after the games have started to PROVE you can win?

Ok

[lakerboy]

Not this again

[Sam Odom]

Numbers Guy

[jjgold]

The best way is just to bet money you can afford to lose

[grease lightnin]

The best way is just to bet money you can afford to lose

Just like buying a ticket

[pimike]

It’s very very hard unless you’re incorporating arbing and bonuses

The only other way long term is spot betting but that’s very hard to be that disciplined

That’s key!!!

[jjgold]

Mike a spot bettor

[Sam Odom]

Purely math based betting.

Numbers Guy

[fried cheese]

So... you are gonna post your picks after the games have started to PROVE you can win?

Ok

what? you think he has a free 2 seconds to copy and paste his bet here after he places it? hes too busy doing math.

[KVB]

Great thread. I hope you have a bunch of locals so you can shop for the best lines.

The more, the better.

[Alfa1234]

Great thread. I hope you have a bunch of locals so you can shop for the best lines.

The more, the better.

A few local bookies due to betting limits actually. I'm not always able to get on the stake I want. For the doubters I'm happy to post tickets as said in FP.

I'll try and update during the day as well, before the actual games start.

[19th Hole]

Best Of Luck...You will need that along with an accountant
to untangle the myriad of daily action and opening and closing lines.

I hope that you are successful. .

[Louisvillekid1]

If you tail me

[Alfa1234]

First part of Bets 1 sept (all posted before the game)

Nadal Basilashvili 2 first set at 8.5
Parma Juventus 2 wins by exactly 1 at 4.15
Shakhtar Mariupol BTS at 3.01
Crystal Palace Southampton 2 at 3.85
Krupa Zrinjski 2 at 2.0

[jjgold]

We shall see

Many come and go man

[Sawyer]

Betting value wins over long haul, it's a proven fact. If you're not betting value, you cannot win.
Very few people manage to win over long haul but we're talking about a very rare minority.

[Alfa1234]

Part 2 of today:

Nitra Zlate Moravce 1 at 1.6
Stuttgart Bayern under 3.5 bookings at 2.1
Eskisehirspor Karabukspor X2 at 2.21

[jjgold]

Let’s just say 98% lose long-term

[Shutup]

Let’s just say 98% lose long-term

I think you mean 99.9999999999999999999%. Long term to me means over your entire lifetime of betting. Very few win like that. Usually it is big money bettors who pick and choose games. Best option is to become a handicapper and bet half your profits from clients and keep the rest. Just don't be a scumbag tout.

[Alfa1234]

2 more as 1 is about to begin:

Wurzburger Kickers Wiesbaden 1 at 2.15
Forward Linkoping O3.5 at 2.4

[Alfa1234]

And a few more:

Karlslund Syrianska 2 at 2.2
Stade Tunisien Stade Gabesien X2 at 1.83

[MiDNiTe]

If I'm hitting under 60% of my bets I'm having a bad month I don't understand why you w would keep betting if u suck but then u need losers to have winners

[vividjohn45]

11 bets in one day, though?

Haha. Fudd this shiznibbett.

[milwaukee mike]

what benefit is anyone here gonna get by posting lines that aren't available at the time of posting?

of course you can win if all your bets are at better lines than the market

[Alfa1234]

what benefit is anyone here gonna get by posting lines that aren't available at the time of posting?

of course you can win if all your bets are at better lines than the market

I'll happily post the tickets when I get them because the lines were available when I took them. That is the point, a lot of people here believe beating the closing line does not matter. It's the only thing that matters.