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Who in the American League is going to earn the 2 wild card spots
Boston is going to win the east.
Cleveland is going to win the central.
Houston is going to win the west
Even though the math says these three teams have not clinched their division title yet, only Boston has any sort of chance of not winning their division, however third place Baltimore in closer to second place New York, then second place New York is to the leader of the pack Boston Red Sox.
American League
Division Leaders W L PCT WCGB WCE # L10 STRK LAST GAME NEXT GAME E - Boston 77 59 .566 - - 4-6 L1 9/2 @ NYY, L 1-5 9/3 @ NYY, 7:35 PM C - Cleveland 80 56 .588 - - 10-0 W11 9/3 @ DET, W 11-1 9/4 @ CWS, 2:10 PM W - Houston 83 53 .610 - - 6-4 W4 9/3 vs NYM, W 8-6 9/4 @ SEA, 6:40 PM
The top two Wild Card teams from each league make the postseason and play each other in a one-game playoff.
Wild Card Teams W L PCT WCGB WCE # L10 STRK LAST GAME NEXT GAME NY Yankees 72 63 .533 +1.5 - 4-6 W1 9/2 vs BOS, W 5-1 9/3 vs BOS, 7:35 PM Minnesota 71 65 .522 - - 6-4 L1 9/3 vs KC, L 4-5 9/4 @ TB, 7:10 PM LA Angels 70 66 .515 1.0 26 5-5 W1 9/2 @ TEX, W 7-4 Live @ TEX Baltimore 70 67 .511 1.5 25 8-2 W1 9/3 vs TOR, W 5-4 9/4 vs NYY, 2:05 PM Seattle 68 68 .500 3.0 24 4-6 W2 9/2 vs OAK, W 7-6 Live vs OAK Kansas City 67 68 .496 3.5 24 3-7 W1 9/3 @ MIN, W 5-4 9/4 @ DET, 1:10 PM Texas 67 68 .496 3.5 24 5-5 L1 9/2 vs LAA, L 4-7 Live vs LAA Tampa Bay 68 70 .493 4.0 22 6-4 L2 9/3 @ CWS, L 2-6 9/4 vs MIN, 7:10 PM
New York Yankees:
New York Yankees have the fourth best record in the American League and currently have a 1.5 game lead over the next seven best record teams.
If the Yankees don't earn a wild card it's probably be due to the lack of production from phenom Aaron Judge, opposing pitchers have studied Judge, found out how to get him out and has stopped hitting. Also their are whispers he has physical problems, it's been leaked he received a cortisone shot and you don't get those for no reason.
Another reason why the Yankees fail is because reliever Chapman. It's no secret the Cubs abused his arm last September and October, sent him back to New York as damaged goods, which is why the velocity is down and all of sudden very hittable. And their starting pitching is a question mark. Severino is electric, can CC Sabathia and his creaky knee be counted on, Tanaka is inconsistent, like I said, a question mark, a hit or miss proposition.
The biggest reason why the Yankees may not earn a wild card spot is the remaining schedule, it's month of hell.
Every game the Yankees play the next four months are against teams that are division leaders in the AL or are one of the other seven teams chasing a wild card spot. Brutal schedule, with the next nine games on the road.
Minnesota Twins:
Why the Twins won't earn a wild card spot.
Starting pitching isn't deep enough.
Feeling here is the Twins don't have a middle of the rotation starter to compliment Berrios and Santana.
The bullpen. Simply stated it sucks. All you need to know is all the regular relievers except Kintzler has a negative minus sign next to their WAR number. And their only reliable reliever, the aforementioned closer, isn't really a closer, never closed until the middle of last season and doesn't even want to close because that's not what he's done form little league on up to the big show but accepts the role because like I said everybody else sucks.
What the Twins do have going on in their favor is they have a lineup that can rake, and rake with power, seven of the nine in the regular lineup has double digit home runs, they play terrific team defense which helps out the deplorable pitching staff.
The biggest reason the Twins do the improbable and get to the playoffs is they have a soft schedule the next four weeks, only difficult games are three game sets with Cleveland, New York, and Tampa Bay, if you can consider Tampa Bay difficult, but since they are in the hunt I will for now.
Los Angeles Angels.
The Halo's were left for dead and buried when Mike Trout when down, but were resurrected when the perennial MVP Award winner returned from the disabled list.
Then GM Billy Eppler went wheeling and dealing, acquired Justin Upton, acquired Brandon Phillips, and suddenly that every day lineup became very long.
Why they won't earn a wild card spot.
They won't, I love Mike Trout, he's my guy, he's Superman, there is nothing he can not do, except pitch, and that's why the Angels even though the math says they have a chance, really has zero chance.
The pitching, like the Twins sucks. When a team is counting on JC Ramirez and Ricky Nolasco to take you to the promised land, then you aren't going to the promised land. When your team ERA leader has an ERA of over 4 and your team save leader is a washed up former starter that isn't even pitching because he's on the disabled list, then you ain't going to the promised land. Too bad, because Mike Trout deserves to play in some October playoff games.
Baltimore Orioles:
The first half of the season the Orioles pitching staff was the punch line of a very bad joke.
Every starter in the rotation was getting lit up like a Christmas tree, then about 10 days ago it looked like the ugly five in that rotation looked like they remembered how to pitch.
They swept the Red Sox three straight yielding a stingy four runs the entire series.
The next series they threw a nine inning shutout winning 4-0.
Then Friday night they one upped that beating the dangerous Blue Jays hitters 1-0 in 13 innings yet.
Suddenly the pretenders from Baltimore became contenders as they saw their record climb from an unimpressive 60 and 64 to a respectable 70 and 67, the Birds find themselves just a game and half out of a wild card game.
Why the Orioles will play in a wildcard game is because they can hit, no, make that they can mash.
The Orioles have six hitters in the everyday lineup with more than 20 home runs, the catcher who has played in only 80 games Wellington Castillo has 18 home runs, so for all intents and purposes the Orioles have seven players with 20 or more home runs in the lineup when Castillo catches.
Jonathan Schoop has 30 home runs, 101 RBI, and a batting average of .301 and isn't even the best second baseman in the league, by all metrics should be considered in the MVP race and isn't even an afterthought.
Half their power hitters hit for high average, make no mistakes about it, this team is scary every time anyone of their hitters steps into the box.
Besides the 206 team home runs the Orioles have hit, good for second in the majors, and the .267 team batting average from a team that is not notorious for high batting averages the Orioles play very good team defense, which I am sure the starting pitching appreciates and their bullpen is dependable.
The Orioles bullpens of the recent past were much better than dependable, but they lost closer Zach Britton for most of the beginning of the year, has been ordinary since his return, last season Britton had one of the best seasons I have ever seen from a closer in recent past. He saved 47 blew zero. Besides the greatest that ever lived Mariano Rivera, what closer goes 47 for 47 in the save department pitching in 69 games. Britton last season gave up one earned runs and pitched virtually in half of every Oriole games. Brad Brach did a very nice job stepping into the closer role, Darren O'Day is funky and difficult to time as a batter seems to have lost a little bit, but still a tough reliever, and Mychal Givens is starting to look like a legit seventh/eighth inning set up man, the dude is an enigma however, he's given up 10 home runs in 68 innings, but only has 2.63 ERA and an even more surprising 1.05 WH/IP ratio and owns a stellar 10 strikeout per 9 innings pitched ratio. Expect this from Givens every time he enters a game. He'll either a) strike out the side, three up three down or b) make things a little interesting by giving up a homer before striking out somebody to end the inning.
So what's the problem then?
It's the starting pitching, well duh?
Know this, if Tillman and Gausman or Wade Miley and Chris Tillman any two of those four can step up,, give the team what they call consistent quality starts, and if Dylan Bundy can stay dependable as he is the only steady starter of the entire staff the Orioles can not only snatch a wild card berth, but go on a deep October run. Their pitching better wake up starting tomorrow as they start a three game set with the Yankees, then have to play four games against the Blue Jays, a team that abuses weak pitching, then four more against the Yankees, then another team that hits bad pitching well Tampa Bay......
I'm not an Oriole fan, I think Manager Buck is entirely too anal, the team has only one flaw, it's a gaping flaw, (the starting pitching, well duh) pitching is pretty much half the game after all, having said that if that Oriole starting 5 can get their shit together they can go far.
Seattle Mariners:
The Mariners are an ordinary team with ordinary hitting, and ordinary pitching that's below ordinary without a healthy James Paxton who is supposed to be coming off the disable list soon, with an ordinary record of 63 and 63.
How ordinary are the Mariners bats?
They have the 13th ranked out of 30 teams offense.
Besides Cruz and Cano they have nobody that can really beat you, besides those two nobody in that lineup makes you cover your eyes when they approach the batters box.
Jean Segura is a hit machine, hits for high average with no pop, Kyle Seagar can beat you if you're not careful, Mike Zunino has plus power with a low average catcher. Ben Gamel is proving he belongs in a big league lineup. Long story short, ordinary offense.
M's pitching is not very good without Paxton, like I mentioned he's coming back off the DL which upgrades their pitching staff from not so good to ordinary. Besides Paxton.
The rest of the ordinary pitching staff consists of Ariel Miranda who owns an ordinary 8 and 6 record with a high ERA because he coughs up an extraordinary 35 home runs that I'm surprised he hasn't wound up on the DL with whip lash turning around and watching the balls just fly out of the park. Miranda does have a low WH/IP and strikes out about 8 per nine innings, it's those damn taters he loves serving up that kills him, Yovani Galardo used to be pretty good back in the day when he pitched for the Brewers, now he just sucks.
"King" Felix Hernandez was great back in the day won a Cy Young, was in the thick of Cy Young Award voting for about five, six seasons, but that was than, now he's on the disabled list, not that great anymore and just barely relevant these days. His ERA has gone from 2.14 to 3.53 to 3.82 to 4.52 to almost to being relevant anymore, I'm sorry I said that already.
The Mariner bullpen is actually pretty good, a little better than ordinary.
Diaz is a nice closer, has 31 saves, has a ton of strikeouts, 79 K's in 58 innings pitch works out to be over 12 K's per nine innings pitched which is mighty lofty. Here's the kicker, he gives up too many homers which keeps him off of the elite closer list and keeps him on the good closer list. The M's set up guy I like a lot, Nick Vincent.
Vincent does his job very well, which is hold leads and keep his team in the game, has rock solid across the board numbers except for the strikeouts but that is not what he does, he's not a strikeout pitcher, he rarely gives up home runs, he's stingy in allowing base runners, he really is one of the best in the game at what he does and that is holding leads for Diaz, too bad he pitches on the west coast and I live on the east coast and by the time he pitches it's 1 am my time if not later.
Mariners have a brutal remaining schedule and they don't have enough horses to overcome the teams ahead of them and to be honest there is one team and maybe two teams behind them that can catch them.
I say they have no chance of playing anymore baseball after the 162nd game is played.
Kansas City Royals:
The KC Royals are my very favorite team so I'm going to be nice here.
No I'm not, this team drives me bat shit crazy. They really do.
They started out the season like horseshit, couldn't hit for shit, as team after like six weeks they weren't even hitting .200. Then they caught fire, which is what they always do, go on insane streaks, insane winning streaks, insane losing streaks, the team drives me insane.
When they won the world series just two years ago the Royals became just the second team in history to go from seven game ahead in a division to seven game back in the division twice in the same season, yeah, that kind of insanely streaky team.
Right now they are playing poorly which when the calendar says it's September is not a good time to be playing poorly, and don't excel in any one aspect of the game to compete for a wild card.
Spotty pitching, spotty hitting, once dominant bull pen now reduced to average.
They have a top three catcher in the game with Sal Perez, they have one real power threat with Moose, a guy that has and can hit 30 home runs but not much more because he hits too many line drives in Eric Hosmer that plays gold glove type first base, the Royals have a speed demon that steals bases with a very low rate of getting thrown out that plays outstanding center field in Lorenzo Cain, which is pretty amazing since Cain virtually had no clue about baseball until he was a junior in HS, and Melke was a nice pick up from the White Sox, I'll cut to chase one of the best relief corps that ever was is reduced to average, the starting pitching is iffy, Danny Duffy the staff ace is on the disabled list, and just got DUI'ed, and there is not enough hitting.
KC has next to zero chances of playing in a wildcard game.
Texas Rangers:
As lethal and powerful as the Oriole's are, the Texas Rangers are the best power hitting team in the majors.
By season's end the Rangers will have 8 hitters with 20 or more home runs.
It's damn near impossible to keep them in the park.
They lost Beltre, a class act as a class act can be, and will not even miss his bat, his leadership yes, his bat the Rangers have more than enough to compensate for.
The Rangers don't hit for average, they don't have to.
What's startling about the Rangers is with the majors leagues best home run hitting team you also get the major leagues second best base stealing team.
Power and speed = an unstoppable lethal offense.
Pitching is the problem.
The pitching is a big problem.
They send Yu Darvish packing to Hollywood.
Cole Hamels is still a quality pitcher but not nearly as good as he once was say six years ago when he was an elite starter, yes Hamels had elite seasons in Philly, those days are gone but still a good starter.
But that's all they have.
Cashner is an OK bottom of the rotation guy, doesn't strike fear in any batter, has a low K ratio.
And Martin Perez is a punching bag, a hamburger, a gas can, I'll stop there.
Just how bad is Martin Perez? He averages almost 100 pitches per start, 96.6 to be exact.
He's made 27 starts, and has pitched 157 innings all in starts. Simple math says Perez averages 5 2/3 innings a start. What that all means is what we have here is a pitcher that needs 100 pitches (almost) to go 5 2/3 innings every start he makes.
It's one thing if Perez was using all those pitches to strike out hitters, but he doesn't, he's bottom of the barrel when it comes to K totals and averages. Not even six per nine. To further Perez's suckiness (if there is such a word) his WH/IP is over 1.5 which means he allows a little over 3 base runners every two innings which explains why he pitches to an ERA of almost five.
Do you want to talk about Martin Perez? Just read what is written about Martinez, same scenario with even worse numbers.
When you can't get past the sixth inning you need to use you can get past the sixth inning with 2 starters you had best have a good bullpen, they don't, it's actually kind of brutal.
Matt Bush is OK, I kind of like that funky delivery Alex Claudio, the rest is garbage, trash, rubbish, angus beef hamburger.
No shot at a wild card but it would be fun to watch this team hit with a decent pitching staff though.
Tampa Bay Rays:
Not going to get long winded here.
The Rays have more than enough hitting to go far.
The Rays have outstanding team speed.
The Rays play good defense.
The Rays with Hunter setting up Colome is a good bullpen.
The Rays with a healthy 100 percent Chris Archer who is not just a staff ace, but a bona fide MLB ace would probably be in a wild card game. Without Archer I'm not so sure.
Even if the Rays make it to the wild card game without Archer, their second best is Alex Cobb, who's not so bad, if Cobb wins that game, the Rays would have to face the Indians (who will catch the Astro's with the AL best record) against Corey Kluber, with Jake Odorizzi or maybe Blake Snell.
To which I say good luck with all that.
Rays go as Chris Archer goes.
Fangraphs projections:
Red Sox, Cleveland and Houston all locks to make the playoffs.
Yankees have a 15 percent chance of catching the Red Sox and winning the division and a 74.7 percent chance, or 3 in 4 if you will to make the playoffs.
Orioles have a 9 percent chance of 1 in 11 chance of making the playoffs
Rays have a 5 percent chance or 1 in 20.
Twins have a 41.3 percent to make playoffs
Royals have a 11.4 percent chance.
The Angels have a 31.3 percent chance of making the playoffs.
That's absurd, how can a team that can't pitch a lick have a 1 in 3 shot.
I'm going to find ways to fade that, if I can get a prop bet that handles such things.
Mariners and Rangers each have a 6 percent chance of making the playoffs.
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Originally Posted by Mr KLC
