[The Giant]

[19th Hole]

[bonzaii]

That's a good question. A month or so ago when they were struggling like they are now I would have said yes for sure, but the Brew Crew are on a roll right now.

[Chi_archie]

here is what fangraphs has to say


NL Central

---

	2017 Year to Date							2017 Projected Rest of Season							2017 Projected Full Season
Team	G	W	L	W%	RDif	RS/G	RA/G	G	W	L	W%	RDif	RS/G	RA/G	W	L	W%	RDif	RS/G	RA/G
Cubs	87	43	44	.494	11	4.55	4.43	75	42	33	.560	44	4.83	4.24	85	77	.525	55	4.68	4.34
Brewers	90	49	41	.544	43	4.96	4.48	72	33	39	.457	-31	4.57	5.00	82	80	.506	12	4.78	4.71
Cardinals	87	42	45	.483	7	4.55	4.47	75	39	36	.523	17	4.64	4.42	81	81	.501	24	4.59	4.45
Pirates	88	41	47	.466	-36	4.14	4.55	74	37	37	.494	-4	4.50	4.55	78	84	.479	-40	4.30	4.55
Reds	87	38	49	.437	-40	4.85	5.31	75	33	42	.446	-41	4.57	5.11	71	91	.441	-81	4.72	5.22

[Chi_archie]

62% chance of Cubs winning the central

NL Central

---

	2017 Year to Date				2017 Projected Standings / Playoff Probabilities
Team	W	L	W%	GB	EXPW	EXPL	rosW%	DIV	WC	POFF	DOFF	NLDS	NLCS	WS
Brewers	49	41	.544	0.0	81.9	80.1	.456	16.7 %	10.3 %	27.0 %	21.5 %	6.8 %	2.1 %	0.5 %
Cubs	43	44	.494	4.5	86.4	75.6	.579	62.0 %	8.5 %	70.5 %	66.8 %	34.6 %	17.3 %	8.0 %
Cardinals	42	45	.483	5.5	81.9	80.1	.533	17.7 %	10.8 %	28.5 %	23.6 %	10.3 %	4.4 %	1.7 %
Pirates	41	47	.466	7.0	77.6	84.4	.495	3.5 %	2.5 %	6.0 %	4.6 %	1.7 %	0.5 %	0.2 %
Reds	38	49	.437	9.5	70.8	91.2	.438	0.1 %	0.1 %	0.2 %	0.2 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %

[The Giant]

That's a good question. A month or so ago when they were struggling like they are now I would have said yes for sure, but the Brew Crew are on a roll right now.

Milwaukee is hot, and Arizona and Colorado currently hold the wildcard positions pretty comfortably.

Before the season started I would've said it was a foregone conclusion that the Cubs would make the playoffs. Now, not so sure.

[The Giant]

62% chance of Cubs winning the central

NL Central

---

	2017 Year to Date				2017 Projected Standings / Playoff Probabilities
Team	W	L	W%	GB	EXPW	EXPL	rosW%	DIV	WC	POFF	DOFF	NLDS	NLCS	WS
Brewers	49	41	.544	0.0	81.9	80.1	.456	16.7 %	10.3 %	27.0 %	21.5 %	6.8 %	2.1 %	0.5 %
Cubs	43	44	.494	4.5	86.4	75.6	.579	62.0 %	8.5 %	70.5 %	66.8 %	34.6 %	17.3 %	8.0 %
Cardinals	42	45	.483	5.5	81.9	80.1	.533	17.7 %	10.8 %	28.5 %	23.6 %	10.3 %	4.4 %	1.7 %
Pirates	41	47	.466	7.0	77.6	84.4	.495	3.5 %	2.5 %	6.0 %	4.6 %	1.7 %	0.5 %	0.2 %
Reds	38	49	.437	9.5	70.8	91.2	.438	0.1 %	0.1 %	0.2 %	0.2 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %

Wow, 70% chance to make the playoffs.

Let's see what those numbers show after today's games. It'll be lower.

[19th Hole]

The Cubs Have One Of The Worst Championship Hangovers Ever


The Cubs’ decline is historic

		RUN DIFFERENTIAL
TEAM	YEAR	CHAMPIONSHIP YEAR	FOLLOWING YEAR	DIFFERENCE
Florida Marlins	1997	71	-256	-327
New York Yankees	1939	438	153	-285
Boston Red Sox	2013	197	-81	-278
Boston Red Sox	1912	268	23	-245
St. Louis Cardinals	1931	211	-34	-245
Chicago Cubs	2016	252	25	-227
Detroit Tigers	1935	271	53	-218
Los Angeles Angels	2002	207	-7	-214
Chicago White Sox	1917	199	14	-185
Pittsburgh Pirates	1909	265	83	-182
Cleveland Indians	1948	282	106	-176

All run differentials are based on a 162-game schedule.
SOURCE: LAHMAN’S BASEBALL DATABASE


Teams often struggle after a championship. Even the most exceptional roster can get pushed back toward average through some combination of a World Series hangover and regression to the mean. But the Cubs’ slide is uncommon even by those standards. According to run differential, only five other champs in history have declined as much as Chicago has this year

Of the 10 teams on the list, seven played before 1950, when baseball was a very different sport. In the current era (since 1988), the Cubs drop-off is the third worst, trailing only the 2013 Red Sox — more on them later — and the infamous fire-sale 1997 Marlins. Chicago had more room to fall than most champs — only 19 World Series winners matched the 2016 Cubs’ +252 run differential — but that just makes their current mediocrity stand out all the more starkly.

[packerd_00]

Their getting trounced 14-2 to Pittsburgh as we speak,the Cubs are going to have to pull their finger out quick.

[newguy]

You will see big turnaround 2h I think.

Biased obviously.

[jjgold]

They have no pitching they're absolutely terrible

[Fidel_CashFlow]

no they actually do have some pitching from starters to back end bullpen guys
the problem is , they are not that good of a hitting team
they can hit the long ball but they cant consistently put runners on base
when the big hits come . I think they are last or 2nd to last in league in batting average

And no , I dont think they will make the playoffs .

[Slipknot26]

Not likely
Pitching is average even with Lester , Arietta and Co
Their biggest issue is hitting , they absolutely are horrible .
Bryant leading team with a pathetic .260 , no clutch hitting when needed . That's horrible , they are damn near last in team batting , tied with the A's next to last , only the Padres is worse . Tell you the issue right there .
I mean sure they can get on a run but odds it happening isn't good since they will need both pitching and hitting to happen together .
Even last year Cubs was average hitting , the pitching got it done .

[BigOrange]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=U7fjDS0jKiE

[nyplayer33]

No...managers means ugots..Lester gave up how am any runs today...team was 50 over 500 last year..God awful.this year. Same manager..players suck..can't hit..errors

[Cuse0323]

Nope.

[lakerboy]

The problem is they won a world series they shouldn't have

[Otters27]

Cubs year was last year. The don't stand a chance vs Dodgers

[The Giant]

Anyone can win in the playoffs, Otters.

Please understand this.

You're a good kid, but I worry about you.

[teaserpleaser]

I hope not

I hope the brewers take it

I don't see the brewers being much of a problem for the dodgers.

[The Giant]

I hope not

I hope the brewers take it

I don't see the brewers being much of a problem for the dodgers.

I'm not sure I trust the Brewers to finish the job.

The team can smash, but will their pitching holdup? We've got a long summer ahead of us.

[BigBallzz69]

Window closed quickly. Should start selling pieces at deadline and rebuild.

[bonzaii]

Arrieta is not the ace that he was last year and guys like Lester and Hendricks aren't as good as last year either. They really need Hendricks to pitch well when he comes back healthy. Their bullpen which is the least of their worries is also not as good. They are not getting on base as much as they were last year as well. I don't think some people realize that the Cubs lost more then just guys like Dexter Fowler. Yeah they kept their four rotation pitchers, but they lost guys in the pen and some key reserve players like Soler and Coghlan. Someone other than Kris Bryant and Rizzo needs to start hitting if they want to get out of this slump of 500 baseball. The good news is that they are still really young in the field and there is ton of baseball left. It also helps that they play in the worst division. If they can stay healthy I'd say there going to end up winning the division in a close race. No way are getting to the World Series this year though.

The odds a month ago had the Cubs as the 2nd favorite behind the Stros to win the WS lol. Might as well burn that money if you took that bet

[Mr KLC]

Maddon: "I'm still very confident. I believe in our guys and I'm eager to see us coming out of the break"

[Mr KLC]

[daneblazer]

The Cubs are in deep shit. Outside of a few pieces in the pen, they have no pitching

[d2bets]

The Cubs are in deep shit. Outside of a few pieces in the pen, they have no pitching

Maybe. Depends whether Lester, Arrieta and Hendricks can regain some of the magic they had last season. And they will likely add someone.

[nyplayer33]

Arrieta started falling apart second part of last year..fact. Houston looks awesome...scoring 3 tds today..lol..missed 2 extra points..7. 6. 6

[tony_come]

I sinty joe

[19th Hole]

Maybe. Depends whether Lester, Arrieta and Hendricks can regain some of the magic they had last season. And they will likely add someone.

Chicago Cubs and Detroit Tigers have been discussing Justin Verlander

[Mr KLC]

Veteran scout calls the Cubs "the most confusing team I've seen in my four decades"

[d2bets]

Arrieta started falling apart second part of last year..fact. Houston looks awesome...scoring 3 tds today..lol..missed 2 extra points..7. 6. 6

Although he was better in the first half, that's an exaggeration. He was a big part of the Cubs winning the in the playoffs and world series. I wouldn't be surprised if he picked it up 2nd half.

[d2bets]

Chicago Cubs and Detroit Tigers have been discussing Justin Verlander

Article today knocked that down. Cubs will add, but not Verlander.

[RockBottom]

Article today knocked that down. Cubs will add, but not Verlander.

What do they have to give up? They need 2 starters and a leadoff hitter for starters.

[TheMoneyShot]

They will make the playoffs. They are just fukking around.