1. 01-30-17 07:31 AM #1
    jjgold
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    Anyone Notice Most Successful Players Are Dog Players??

    It is why most of us continue to lose week after week.

    The days of the strong chalk are gone, parity running rampant in all sports

    Make wise decisions
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  2. 01-30-17 08:40 AM #2
    Sam Odom
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    Richie
    Pat V


    jj , who else
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  3. 01-30-17 08:49 AM #3
    jjgold
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    Sammy there's plenty of guys all the chalk players get buried and of course Lakerboy a tremendous winner here
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  4. 01-30-17 08:58 AM #4
    DOM_Toretto
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    Like LT

    😂
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  5. 01-30-17 09:02 AM #5
    jjgold
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    LT does not take money lines it's a hidden gem in all sports


    Americans unlike your European bettors are trained to bet handicaps and not money lines
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  6. 01-30-17 09:04 AM #6
    Sam Odom
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    jj , take your own advice

    we should see your SBR Spreadsheet go positive $$$ soon
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  7. 01-30-17 09:05 AM #7
    Itsamazing777
    Not interested....
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    Not ats.
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  8. 01-30-17 09:14 AM #8
    PorkChop
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    JJ what should I do today, no action until Sixers/Kings 3pm.

    Movie?

    Rhino?
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  9. 01-30-17 09:43 AM #9
    jjgold
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    Shopping
    Load books withdraw /deposit
    Walk
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  10. 01-30-17 09:50 AM #10
    Alfa1234
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    Quite normal.

    Mostly moneyline dogs.

    Public bets favourite ML, pulling the odd further down and taking it lower than the actual line/probability of them winning. The dog is the reverse.

    If a dog has a 20% probability of winning, they open at +375. Gradually, because of the public betting larger amounts on the favourite, some dogs will be at let's say +450 by the end of the week (or day, whatever) giving you +EV.

    Dogs between +450 and +900 very often have positive EV at Pinnacle.

    Emotionally more hard though, because you only win 1 in 5 bets in that case.

    Edit: I can guarantee you, if you "lay" (bet against) huge favourites like Bayern Munich or Barcelona on betting exchanges consistantly, you will make money.
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  11. 01-30-17 09:52 AM #11
    lakerboy
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    Dogs ONLY method to survive the juice of spread lines.
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  12. 01-30-17 09:54 AM #12
    Sam Odom
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    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ig-dog-ml.html
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  13. 01-30-17 09:58 AM #13
    Philmill
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    progression system better tho
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  14. 01-30-17 09:59 AM #14
    Alfa1234
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    There is definitely vig on dogs. However, some dogs will give you +EV because books try to balance their bets and will happily give you +EV to offset some of the risk from a winning favourite if they took large amounts on it. This happens mostly close to starting time.
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  15. 01-30-17 10:14 AM #15
    minet123
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    Duh....
    Another fill in thread from Tico fill in JJ
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  16. 01-30-17 10:17 AM #16
    Sam Odom
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    jj likes Ticas
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  17. 01-30-17 10:29 AM #17
    Smoke
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    Sammy needs fiber
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  18. 01-30-17 10:32 AM #18
    Sam Odom
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Odom View Post

    jj likes Ticas


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  19. 01-30-17 02:42 PM #19
    jjgold
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    Sammy I like pussy but cannot get it
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  20. 01-30-17 03:08 PM #20
    Goat Milk
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    If you're only betting pure spreads in sports and not various props and futures and live lines, etc, you're just an amateur. Real sharps find an edge and they attack it. I see most guys here over the years just betting standard spreads like suckers. Not gonna get it done long term.
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  21. 01-30-17 04:43 PM #21
    BuckyOne
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alfa1234 View Post
    Quite normal.

    Mostly moneyline dogs.

    Public bets favourite ML, pulling the odd further down and taking it lower than the actual line/probability of them winning. The dog is the reverse.

    If a dog has a 20% probability of winning, they open at +375. Gradually, because of the public betting larger amounts on the favourite, some dogs will be at let's say +450 by the end of the week (or day, whatever) giving you +EV.

    Dogs between +450 and +900 very often have positive EV at Pinnacle.

    Emotionally more hard though, because you only win 1 in 5 bets in that case.

    Edit: I can guarantee you, if you "lay" (bet against) huge favourites like Bayern Munich or Barcelona on betting exchanges consistantly, you will make money.
    I agree with you and base that on scalps over years that shows the dog side getting the money. But,man it can be streaky and hard to just play the value.

    Let's see if anybody agrees with this statement? Very hard to get dog money line value in Vegas! They must think the same thing on dogs - deeper pockets and can hold more?
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  22. 01-30-17 05:06 PM #22
    jjgold
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    need a big bankroll also to sustain losing streaks and most guys do not have it
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  23. 01-30-17 05:15 PM #23
    Alfa1234
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    Prime example right now:

    Liverpool wins 50% of their away games in the Premier League this year. This is against teams in the lower part of the league and the top part combined. They are priced at 1.432 at Pinnacle right now to win at Hull and Hull only lost 45% of their home games so far. See the EV in betting against Liverpool? You can bet against them winning at any exchange at a price of 3.0 after commission. Nice +EV and it'll only get better as the game draws closer. This is the case for almost all favourites all the time although most of the times the edge is smaller. The edge is not huge and I understand the reasoning is a bit flawed as Hull is a low ranked team, but it's a positive EV all around anyway as the public is strongly on Liverpool.
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  24. 01-30-17 05:18 PM #24
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    need a big bankroll also to sustain losing streaks and most guys do not have it
    No you don't, you just need to apply Kelly and bet whatever % amount corresponds to whatever bankroll you have. If you have a 1k roll, and you would bet 100 (not healthy to bet 10% but just an example) on a "normal" spread bet to win 90, just bet 30 or 45 or whatever gives the same win amount and adjust.
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  25. 01-30-17 05:28 PM #25
    PAULYPOKER
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    MLB is where it's at.............
    +ML's'n' +RL's
    Makes Jack, plenty of stack...........

    Never play a Dawg ATS unless ot is super inflated.........
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  26. 01-30-17 05:28 PM #26
    WalkingLuckCharm
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    Parity... didn't know you were capable of a 3 syllabus word !!
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  27. 01-30-17 05:32 PM #27
    Sam Odom
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    $1K roll more like 20.00 bets

    (I know yours was an example)
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  28. 01-30-17 05:37 PM #28
    PAULYPOKER
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    Lose the juice....
    Then you'll lose the noose............
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  29. 01-30-17 05:39 PM #29
    The Giant
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    Everyone has the winning formula, but nobody has a winning spreadsheet.

    It's crazy!
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  30. 01-30-17 05:40 PM #30
    Sam Odom
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    Giant... we are here to teach rookies how to lose less and stay in the game longer
    Points Awarded:

    Philmill gave Sam Odom 20 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  31. 01-30-17 05:41 PM #31
    PAULYPOKER
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    Going public, sharing ins and outs, will kill, even a Giant..........
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  32. 01-30-17 09:46 PM #32
    BuckyOne
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    What we need is a candy store like WSEX, Bowmans, ESB,Aces Gold, et al.
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  33. 01-31-17 12:49 AM #33
    Harry N. Lloyd
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    If only it were that cut and dried. Who among us has made any $$ taking dogs in these NFL playoffs?
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  34. 01-31-17 04:13 AM #34
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harry N. Lloyd View Post
    If only it were that cut and dried. Who among us has made any $$ taking dogs in these NFL playoffs?
    You're right, that is definitely a valid sample size.
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  35. 01-31-17 05:25 AM #35
    Sam Odom
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    how do you like this spread ?







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