1. #1
    fitguy67
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    Fit's Multi-Tray Way: Blogging my Forays into Bet-Sizing Madness

    this a direct follow-on of what I'd started at post #110 at another thread, namely

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ur-max-p4.html

    ______________

    this will be "thinking out loud" and documentative (thus, not SPECIFICALLY designed to be tail-friendly, atho' it very well may be much of the time)

    by this I mean that although plays will always be posted before events begin...there may sometimes not be sufficient time to follow them before the window shuts (eg. i might specify a "roll your own" matrix of parlays--aka. a round robin--where each leg must be individually submitted, which might be quite time-consuming, depending on the number of legs involved...in such a case, as my purpose here is to log MY activities, i will post...and it WILL count)

    if anyone wants to follow along and interact, they should visit the above link and follow along my dozen or so posts over there, so you'll understand how the end point of that thread, hence the starting point of this thread, is summarized concisely as

    9 90.00 0.00 -90.00
    10 9
    100.00 10.00 -90.00 10 9 nxt nxt
    # initial latest change W L leg @prc play atb
    1 10.00 10.00 0.00 a
    4.0000 schvchnko>holm 40.00

    thus, there is a $90 hole to dig out of, and one pending play on the docket...
    and i have a few new ideas/wrinkles to start to get into the works which'll emerge as the blog-entry posts proceed
    Last edited by fitguy67; 07-18-16 at 07:36 PM.

  2. #2
    fitguy67
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    ok, let's go...play hasn't started quite yet on the earliest of the 7 tennis matches i've turned into a
    21-leg "round robin with a difference" composed of all possible 5-leg combinations that can be formed from 7 players

    risking 3-trays' worth (30 bucks) in total here...so about 1.42 on average over the 21 legs

    this i what i did last night (while watching latest ep. of "Preacher) at Pinnacle (by far the best prices on tennis...even on their slightly-crappier parlay-version lines)

    A 1.343 Verdasco
    B 1.555 Haase
    C 1.645 Fritz
    D 1.909 Smyczek
    E 1.32 Young
    F 1.632 Montanes
    G 1.502 Lajo

    each of the 21 legs is placed to sport the same-target (& NOT the same-stake option that you can automate) so each leg must be individually placed as a separate single parlay, as below

    773.87 29.85 231.47
    8.7387 1.42 11.02
    xx parlay price risked
    targeted
    AB CDEFG 10.1610 1.2 11.01
    AC BDEFG 9.6051 1.28 11.10
    AD BCEFG 8.2768 1.51 11.01
    AE BCDFG 11.9699 1 10.99
    AF BCDEG 9.6816 1.27 11.04
    AG BCDEF 10.5195 1.16 11.06
    BC ADEFG 8.2956 1.51 11.04
    BD ACEFG 7.1484 1.79 11.03
    BE ACDFG 10.3380 1.18 11.04
    BF ACDEG 8.3616 1.49 10.99
    BG ACDEF 9.0854 1.36 11.02
    CD ABEFG 6.7573 1.91 11.07
    CE ABDFG 9.7724 1.25 10.99
    CF ABDEG 7.9042 1.59 11.00
    CG ABDEF 8.5883 1.45 11.03
    DE ABCFG 8.4210 1.48 11.01
    DF ABCEG 6.8111 1.89 11.00
    DG ABCEF 7.4006 1.72 11.03
    EF ABCDG 9.8503 1.24 10.99
    EG ABCDF 10.7028 1.13 10.98
    FG ABCDE 8.6567 1.44 11.04
    Last edited by fitguy67; 07-18-16 at 07:46 PM.

  3. #3
    Jayvegas420
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    GL

  4. #4
    fitguy67
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    upshot is this

    W-legs 0 1 6 21
    L-legs 21 20 15 0
    21 1-4 sel'ns
    5 seln's 6 seln's 7 seln's
    $won 0 11.02 66.13 231.47
    $lost -29.85 -28.43 -21.32 0
    net
    -29.85 -17.41 44.81 231.47

    all versus the modest 29.85 stake...

    we often hit 7-leggers but FAR MORE OFTEN hit all but one or two legs of one...
    this works in a bit of margin for error, while keeping a good portion of the upside
    Last edited by fitguy67; 07-18-16 at 05:03 PM.

  5. #5
    fitguy67
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    basically rolling my own 7-leg "almost parlay" on big faves that'll pay out +150 on a 6-er and +775 on a 7-er and even return almost half my stake on a 5-er...

    been doing my RR's like this for a while now after considering that the higher pop (hence least-likely) legs don't deserve the same stake as the lower-pop/more-likely legs...far more efficient and well worth the extra effort of "rolling your own" in a way the books don't allow you the option to automate

    this way i can bet on the big faves in a way that applies a bit of "disaster insurance" to the most heartbreakingly-common occurrence of hitting all but that "last" one or two legs...so if i hit at least 5 out of my 7 selections, I'd at least keep a good percentage of the stake that might be quite sizable at later stages in a $-snowball and that campaign could continue...rather than the normal "fukk it's all gone")...and do so while still leaving you in a nice position to hit big if all selections performed...

    ____________
    just something i'm dabbling at now with inconsequential stakes

    and blogging about it makes me spell out all the thoughts that were going on behind the scenes (making it easier to answer that question everyone asks when looking over a bad patch of tickets..."WTF was I thinking when i played THAT?)
    Last edited by fitguy67; 07-18-16 at 07:50 PM.

  6. #6
    fitguy67
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    2 of the 7 have crashed and burned and 1 (Verdasco) has scratched, so at best Donald Young wins and a 4-legger hits and loss is reduced from 30 to 20...

    moving on persistently (aka. stubbornly)...risk another 30 (another 3 tray's worth) on Stephane Robert at +130 over Rhynitis (again, best prices generally at Pinnacle)
    Last edited by fitguy67; 07-19-16 at 02:56 PM.

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