[KVB]

But he didn’t pick Hawaii. The line is relatively sharp as I have Hawaii winning by about 9 points with a score in the mid 70’s. Other forecasts have Hawaii winning by as many as 11 points. A less sophisticated, more average line gives Hawaii a 7 to 8 point nod. Not surprisingly, this line opened around 7 and has moved toward my forecast of 9 points to about 8.5.

Before moving upward the line ticked downward. I believe this was done in manipulation in order to gain a better number to hit the favorite. At 8.5 we may have gone too far.

So as the line has sharpened and those bettors have gotten their share of the favorite there has also been steam and hype, yet we are only at -8.5.

The reason those manipulators were willing to take only a half point off of 7 to 6.5 before pounding upward was because they knew they had a small window. I believe my line is sharp at 9 points and that those groups know it.
At - 8.5 some influential groups will no longer be interested and these bettors are going to pass. Yet the public still wants a piece of Hawaii. This line doesn’t move upward at this point, I believe based on other metrics, that the books like the action they are getting.

In an appreciation for the tight window I recognize and see in the market, I have countered the late steam and hype movements and have picked up California State Long Beach 49ers +8.5 (-107) over Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.

Good Luck.

[FlipsideRM]

Which team has the cuter ball handlers KVB? This is very pertenant info with such a tight spread

[KVB]

Well...

Hawaii will be fielding this team tonight...

[KVB]

And here's the Long Beach dance team...

Need I say more?

[KVB]

[FlipsideRM]

I'm on it

[jjgold]

Good analysis

[KVB]

A price change on the 8.5 doesn't favor me, but favors my reasoning. After all, this was a bit of a contrarian play.

The prices have changed reflecting pressure on the favorite. Like I said...

...Yet the public still wants a piece of Hawaii. This line doesn’t move upward at this point...

Line still holding on 8.5 regardless of the price. Pinnacle at -102 and Heritage showing -105 are good prices for this +8.5.

I think +8.5 at plus prices would get me into the play again.

Let's see if it hits 9.

[Wallnuts]

Well...

Hawaii will be fielding this team tonight...

number 1 would get the Wallnuts, I tell ya what

[KVB]

Careful...lol...ages not verified.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

If you believe a 9 pt. line is sharp, you shouldn't be taking 8.5.

[KVB]

If you believe a 9 pt. line is sharp, you shouldn't be taking 8.5.

Like I said it was bit of a contrarian play and, believe it or not, almost finished that senentence with "or better put, a play that would normally be pass."

Instead, I am using a bit of market analysis to sniff out some of the give and take of the markets. Not every type of bettor always wins or loses, and there are reasons for that.

In my market analysis sometimes we battle the books, and sometimes the players.

Also, my decision includes behavior in the markets in general, leading up to this game.

The CFL thread gives a much better explanation as to the type of trading happening here. Win or lose, "sharp" players can be on both sides of a game.

[KVB]

My line is sharp enough to bring profit and my trading enhances that profit.

[mohye1980]

Hawaii wins by double digits. Not easy to play in Hawaii. And they have a talented team this year.

[KVB]

They very well could. The money that lifted the line form 6.5 to 8.5 wasn't just locals. It was market moving money for sure.

[tony_come]

Last $25

What's the play

[KVB]

The play is in bold or pass tony.

If you take Hawaii and it ends an 8 point game you will not be pleased.

[tony_come]

Thanks

[mohye1980]

Good call kvb. Hawaii shitted I their beds. They aren't at the game.

[KVB]

Many of you know I hate to have the lead early but at least LB came to play.

[sweethook]

good dope days game . be happy

[KVB]

Good analysis

Analysis you can't find anywhere else in the world.

[jjgold]

It was great analysis