Urena is a live-armed RHP prospect who projects to have above-average command/control with a plus fastball but a lack of swing-and-miss secondaries will likely limit his ability to stay in the rotation long-term. Urena's delivery is relatively free and easy with few, if any, red flags, helping with the overall command projection. His arm gets vertical very quickly in his motion, however, giving hitters a very long look at the ball and decreasing the overall deception therein. The fastball is easy gas and he can pump a lively mid-90s heater with regularity and shows an ability to spot it up on the corners or blow it by hitters up in the zone. Despite a lack of plane, this pitch should be a plus offering at the highest level. The changeup headlines the secondary arsenal and should play to average at the highest level, while the slider and curveball are fringy to below average, respectively. The current lack of big strikeout numbers should continue as he reaches the big leagues due to an underwhelming secondary arsenal.
As a player who has seen success in AA, Urena's risk of reaching his #4 starter potential is moderate and is tempered by the concern that he ends up in the bullpen with the lack of a swing-and-miss secondary pitch. If the secondaries improve slightly (new grips, etc.), Urena has a better chance of sticking in the rotation. If not, he will slot in nicely as a late-innings relief reliever due to a fastball that will likely tick up beyond the mid-90s in short stints and an average changeup that will work in his favor against lefties. |