[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Tuesday

Royals / Yankees UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Brewers +136 (Heritage)
Tigers -116 (Heritage)
Tigers / Athletics OVER 7 -105 (Heritage)


YTD: 159-157-8, +17.42

[44 Mag]

4 MLB Plays Tuesday

Royals / Yankees UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Brewers +136 (Heritage)
Tigers -116 (Heritage)
Tigers / Athletics OVER 7 -105 (Heritage)


YTD: 159-157-8, +17.42

Is Miggy playing today ???

[jjgold]

He must be playing

I thought it was just a rest day for him yesterday

[Big Bear]

Is Miggy playing today ???

line-ups dont come out until about 6pm Eastern for West Coast late night games.

BTW LT,

Love the Brewers play

Brew-Crew already HAMMERED Kershaw so they should have no problem hitting Lefty Bumgarner

Only worry is can we trust Garza?

[STAX]

I absolutely love the Tigers too LT. One of the top 5 plays of the year so far imo. It almost seems like one of those lines that is too good to be true. Oakland 1-9 vrs lefties this year... line should be DET -150 imo. Any idea why its so close to even? Hope its not a trap game...

not sure why you like the over in that game though. OAK gonna have trouble scoring 3 runs imo. What are your thoughts on Brewers? I was thinking about betting them...

[Amadeo-Picks]

line-ups dont come out until about 6pm Eastern for West Coast late night games.

BTW LT,

Love the Brewers play

Brew-Crew already HAMMERED Kershaw so they should have no problem hitting Lefty Bumgarner

Only worry is can we trust Garza?

Bumgarner has pitched better thank kershaw this year. And always pitches better on the road than at home

[Big Bear]

Bumgarner has pitched better thank kershaw this year. And always pitches better on the road than at home

this is true.

Bummy is 3-0 vs Kersh on the year

and won a MLB leading 13 road games last season.

Kershaw may not even make the all-star team if he doesnt get a win tonight

[LT Profits]

Is Miggy playing today ???

I don't see why not. Yesterday was just Rest.

[stevenash]

Love the KC under wager LT.

Jose Urena:
(I can't believe there are five Jose Urena's in the database.)

Miami starter today

MECHANICS:

Very slender frame; thin lower half; broad shoulders; frame could hold more weight down the line; quick-paced drop-and-drive delivery; plane can suffer as a result; arm action is very quick; breaks hands at the letters and gets arm up too early, showing it to hitters for an extended period; increases visibility and decreases deception; arm action is very similar to Randall Delgado's; three-quarters arm slot; loose, whippy arm decelerates well; plus arm speed; long stride down the mound; front leg steps over an imaginary block during stride (aids in velocity); plus momentum; lands on heel; landing can be a bit loud on occasion; back leg is off the rubber at release; pitches over front side decently; falls off toward third base—slightly rotational. Urena is a quick-twitch athlete who shows plenty of fluidity and repeatability in his delivery. The delivery features some effort post-release as he falls off toward first base, but the arm itself is very clean.

Pitch Type	Present Grade	Future Grade	Sitting Velocity	Peak Velocity	Report
Fastball	55	60	91-4	95	Velocity: plus. Command: average; projects to above-average; shows ability to work both sides of the plate with ease; elevates his four-seam to get whiffs; works two-seam low in the zone in order to elicit weak contact; elevated pitch far too frequently in this outing, allowing hard contact up and over the plate; threw strikes and flashed ability to get ahead of hitters with the pitch, but command was merely average; command should improve with repetitions given repeatable mechanics mixed with present strike-throwing ability. Movement: average; standard two-seam life low in the zone; will also show a short cut look in the high-80s that isn't particularly effective; drop-and-drive limits downhill plane. Comments: This projects to be a plus pitch at the highest level. Urena can pump mid-90s with ease and projects to have above-average command of the pitch. He shows different looks with the offering (two-seam, four-seam, cut) and can manipulate the two-seam in particular to miss barrels down in the zone and generate whiffs with the four-seam above the belt.
Changeup	45	50	85-87	88	Command: fringe-average; projects to average; buried a few too many in the dirt; flashed ability to work the outer half versus lefties; can get in trouble by elevating the pitch over the plate. Movement: fringe-average; projects to average; shows above-average arm-side fade at times, but the movement is inconsistent overall; will cut it at times; will also flatten out and become too firm up in the zone and in the upper-80s. Comments: At its best, this pitch can elicit weak pull-side contact from hitters who are caught on their front foot. There is not enough velocity separation for this to be a consistent swing-and-miss pitch, but he projects to have enough feel to be able to get the most out of this weak-contact offering.
Slider	40	45	82-86	87	Command: fringe-average; projects to average; able to generate a few whiffs out of the zone but not a swing-and-miss pitch in the zone; struggled to accumulate quality strikes with pitch; will often choke pitch in the dirt. Movement: below-average; projects to fringe-average; decent three-quarters tilt; more lateral break than vertical depth in the mid-80s; more depth in the low-80s; snap on pitch is inconsistent; will get around the pitch and cause it to merely spin and not break; will also muscle up on pitch and lose sharp break/depth. Comments: This pitch has a tendency to flatten out and doesn't consistently display sharp break, leaving it as a fringy future offering against upper-level bats. It is a playable pitch and should generate some weak contact, but it will not be a swing-and-miss weapon.
Curveball	40	40	79		Command: average; shows ability to get the pitch over the plate early in counts. Movement: below-average; 11-to-5 break; break is soft; shows more vertical action than the slider. Comments: Show-me/get-me-over offering at the highest level; will be able to steal a strike early in counts but will never be a swing-and-miss offering either in the zone or out of the zone.

Overall

Urena is a live-armed RHP prospect who projects to have above-average command/control with a plus fastball but a lack of swing-and-miss secondaries will likely limit his ability to stay in the rotation long-term. Urena's delivery is relatively free and easy with few, if any, red flags, helping with the overall command projection. His arm gets vertical very quickly in his motion, however, giving hitters a very long look at the ball and decreasing the overall deception therein. The fastball is easy gas and he can pump a lively mid-90s heater with regularity and shows an ability to spot it up on the corners or blow it by hitters up in the zone. Despite a lack of plane, this pitch should be a plus offering at the highest level. The changeup headlines the secondary arsenal and should play to average at the highest level, while the slider and curveball are fringy to below average, respectively. The current lack of big strikeout numbers should continue as he reaches the big leagues due to an underwhelming secondary arsenal. As a player who has seen success in AA, Urena's risk of reaching his #4 starter potential is moderate and is tempered by the concern that he ends up in the bullpen with the lack of a swing-and-miss secondary pitch. If the secondaries improve slightly (new grips, etc.), Urena has a better chance of sticking in the rotation. If not, he will slot in nicely as a late-innings relief reliever due to a fastball that will likely tick up beyond the mid-90s in short stints and an average changeup that will work in his favor against lefties.

[44 Mag]

Is Miggy playing today ???

He must be playing

I thought it was just a rest day for him yesterday

I don't see why not. Yesterday was just Rest.

Ok, yesterday I read at Roto that he had a chronic ankle problem??? Maybe not.








<br>

<br>

[stevenash]

Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said Monday that Miguel Cabrera has been dealing with a "cranky ankle."
That's part of the reason for his absence Monday, though Ausmus said it's only a minor thing. Cabrera should return to the Tigers' starting lineup on Tuesday night. Hernan Perez is starting at first base for Detroit in Monday's series opener at Oakland's O.co Coliseum. May 25 - 1:27 PM
Source: James Schmehl on Twitter

[RavensFan2k3]

Love the KC under wager LT.

Jose Urena:
(I can't believe there are five Jose Urena's in the database.)

Miami starter today

MECHANICS:

Very slender frame; thin lower half; broad shoulders; frame could hold more weight down the line; quick-paced drop-and-drive delivery; plane can suffer as a result; arm action is very quick; breaks hands at the letters and gets arm up too early, showing it to hitters for an extended period; increases visibility and decreases deception; arm action is very similar to Randall Delgado's; three-quarters arm slot; loose, whippy arm decelerates well; plus arm speed; long stride down the mound; front leg steps over an imaginary block during stride (aids in velocity); plus momentum; lands on heel; landing can be a bit loud on occasion; back leg is off the rubber at release; pitches over front side decently; falls off toward third base—slightly rotational. Urena is a quick-twitch athlete who shows plenty of fluidity and repeatability in his delivery. The delivery features some effort post-release as he falls off toward first base, but the arm itself is very clean.

Pitch Type	Present Grade	Future Grade	Sitting Velocity	Peak Velocity	Report
Fastball	55	60	91-4	95	Velocity: plus. Command: average; projects to above-average; shows ability to work both sides of the plate with ease; elevates his four-seam to get whiffs; works two-seam low in the zone in order to elicit weak contact; elevated pitch far too frequently in this outing, allowing hard contact up and over the plate; threw strikes and flashed ability to get ahead of hitters with the pitch, but command was merely average; command should improve with repetitions given repeatable mechanics mixed with present strike-throwing ability. Movement: average; standard two-seam life low in the zone; will also show a short cut look in the high-80s that isn't particularly effective; drop-and-drive limits downhill plane. Comments: This projects to be a plus pitch at the highest level. Urena can pump mid-90s with ease and projects to have above-average command of the pitch. He shows different looks with the offering (two-seam, four-seam, cut) and can manipulate the two-seam in particular to miss barrels down in the zone and generate whiffs with the four-seam above the belt.
Changeup	45	50	85-87	88	Command: fringe-average; projects to average; buried a few too many in the dirt; flashed ability to work the outer half versus lefties; can get in trouble by elevating the pitch over the plate. Movement: fringe-average; projects to average; shows above-average arm-side fade at times, but the movement is inconsistent overall; will cut it at times; will also flatten out and become too firm up in the zone and in the upper-80s. Comments: At its best, this pitch can elicit weak pull-side contact from hitters who are caught on their front foot. There is not enough velocity separation for this to be a consistent swing-and-miss pitch, but he projects to have enough feel to be able to get the most out of this weak-contact offering.
Slider	40	45	82-86	87	Command: fringe-average; projects to average; able to generate a few whiffs out of the zone but not a swing-and-miss pitch in the zone; struggled to accumulate quality strikes with pitch; will often choke pitch in the dirt. Movement: below-average; projects to fringe-average; decent three-quarters tilt; more lateral break than vertical depth in the mid-80s; more depth in the low-80s; snap on pitch is inconsistent; will get around the pitch and cause it to merely spin and not break; will also muscle up on pitch and lose sharp break/depth. Comments: This pitch has a tendency to flatten out and doesn't consistently display sharp break, leaving it as a fringy future offering against upper-level bats. It is a playable pitch and should generate some weak contact, but it will not be a swing-and-miss weapon.
Curveball	40	40	79		Command: average; shows ability to get the pitch over the plate early in counts. Movement: below-average; 11-to-5 break; break is soft; shows more vertical action than the slider. Comments: Show-me/get-me-over offering at the highest level; will be able to steal a strike early in counts but will never be a swing-and-miss offering either in the zone or out of the zone.

Overall

Urena is a live-armed RHP prospect who projects to have above-average command/control with a plus fastball but a lack of swing-and-miss secondaries will likely limit his ability to stay in the rotation long-term. Urena's delivery is relatively free and easy with few, if any, red flags, helping with the overall command projection. His arm gets vertical very quickly in his motion, however, giving hitters a very long look at the ball and decreasing the overall deception therein. The fastball is easy gas and he can pump a lively mid-90s heater with regularity and shows an ability to spot it up on the corners or blow it by hitters up in the zone. Despite a lack of plane, this pitch should be a plus offering at the highest level. The changeup headlines the secondary arsenal and should play to average at the highest level, while the slider and curveball are fringy to below average, respectively. The current lack of big strikeout numbers should continue as he reaches the big leagues due to an underwhelming secondary arsenal. As a player who has seen success in AA, Urena's risk of reaching his #4 starter potential is moderate and is tempered by the concern that he ends up in the bullpen with the lack of a swing-and-miss secondary pitch. If the secondaries improve slightly (new grips, etc.), Urena has a better chance of sticking in the rotation. If not, he will slot in nicely as a late-innings relief reliever due to a fastball that will likely tick up beyond the mid-90s in short stints and an average changeup that will work in his favor against lefties.

Really like Miami today

[44 Mag]

Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said Monday that Miguel Cabrera has been dealing with a "cranky ankle."
That's part of the reason for his absence Monday, though Ausmus said it's only a minor thing. Cabrera should return to the Tigers' starting lineup on Tuesday night. Hernan Perez is starting at first base for Detroit in Monday's series opener at Oakland's O.co Coliseum. May 25 - 1:27 PM
Source: James Schmehl on Twitter

Thanks Steve.

[stevenash]

Really like Miami today

Word is he can be tough on left handed batters.

[stevenash]

4 MLB Plays Tuesday

Royals / Yankees UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Brewers +136 (Heritage)
Tigers -116 (Heritage)
Tigers / Athletics OVER 7 -105 (Heritage)


YTD: 159-157-8, +17.42

LT?

What do you see in the Brewers that I am missing?
Garza is pitching better, yes, and the +137 at home is mighty enticing.

What bothers me here though is the Brewers as a team hit .200 vs. LHP, and pretty much the same against MB.
Parra who hits lefties well is out I think.

[LT Profits]

LT?

What do you see in the Brewers that I am missing?
Garza is pitching better, yes, and the +137 at home is mighty enticing.

What bothers me here though is the Brewers as a team hit .200 vs. LHP, and pretty much the same against MB.
Parra who hits lefties well is out I think.

My model has Brewers at 45% here, which is only +122ish

[LT Profits]

5 MLB Plays Tuesday

Royals / Yankees UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Mariners / Rays OVER 7 -110 (Heritage)
Brewers +136 (Heritage)
Tigers -116 (Heritage)
Tigers / Athletics OVER 7 -105 (Heritage)

[RavensFan2k3]

LT, you don't like Miami?

[Blackballer]

My model has Brewers at 45% here, which is only +122ish

Bum has also good numbers versus Milwaukee when pitching @ MIL. You take Milwaukee for value due to the disparity of +122 and +137?

[RollinDo]

LT?

What do you see in the Brewers that I am missing?
Garza is pitching better, yes, and the +137 at home is mighty enticing.

What bothers me here though is the Brewers as a team hit .200 vs. LHP, and pretty much the same against MB.
Parra who hits lefties well is out I think.

I wouldn't back Brewers at +200 these days vs winning teams.
Should be a close game.
I really like the Under 7.5 in this one as long as Garza and Co. holds SF to 4 or less.
I see a 4-3 or 4-2 kinda game.

[LT Profits]

Bum has also good numbers versus Milwaukee when pitching @ MIL. You take Milwaukee for value due to the disparity of +122 and +137?

Yes, every pick I make is based on value (or perceived value).

[p19101]

I wouldn't back Brewers at +200 these days vs winning teams.
Should be a close game.
I really like the Under 7.5 in this one as long as Garza and Co. holds SF to 4 or less.
I see a 4-3 or 4-2 kinda game.

You think it should be a close game but wouldn't take +200

[RollinDo]

You think it should be a close game but wouldn't take +200

Close and think they win are 2 separate things...Think Brewers can hang with Giants if things go right for them...but I don't see them winning.
I don't base my plays strictly for "value"...and do decent.
I never bet a team I think will lose...so +200 has no value if they lose....can Brewers win? Not out of question, but don't like backing bad teams...especially vs prime starters who pitch great on the road.

[Big Bear]

Ryan Braun is on a mission

[Conqueror]

Close and think they win are 2 separate things...Think Brewers can hang with Giants if things go right for them...but I don't see them winning.
I don't base my plays strictly for "value"...and do decent.
I never bet a team I think will lose...so +200 has no value if they lose....can Brewers win? Not out of question, but don't like backing bad teams...especially vs prime starters who pitch great on the road.

You're on point!

[Big Bear]

rollin do gets it

[RollinDo]

rollin do gets it

Thanks guys...haven't had much support on the mlb site for a while...just share what I've found to be working...do not claim to know it all in my 2nd full season - just made a modest profit so far. Mlb is not easy IMO...don't watch much at all.

[Blackballer]

Really like Miami today

Urena dominated in Triple A recently. Think he was something like 4-0. And he is listed as the #2 prospect for the Marlins as well.

[LT Profits]

6 MLB Plays Tuesday

Royals / Yankees UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Mariners / Rays OVER 7 -110 (Heritage)
Brewers +136 (Heritage)
Giants / Brewers UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
Tigers -116 (Heritage)
Tigers / Athletics OVER 7 -105 (Heritage)