1. #1
    SBRPicks
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    BCS Championship Preview with Peter Loshak and Justin7




    The 2010 BCS Championship on Thursday pits the two top-ranked teams against each other, No. 2 Texas and No. 1 Alabama. The weather forecast for Pasadena is for mild weather with temperatures in the 60s, low wind and a 0% chance of rain.

    Both teams were undefeated this year with records of 13-0, but the Crimson Tide were a profitable bet going 8-5 ATS, while betting the Longhorns was actually a losing proposition overall, as they ended the regular season 5-7-1 ATS.

    It goes without saying that both teams are strong all around, with only very minor weaknesses if any, and tons of depth. Perhaps most importantly, both teams feature absolute elite defenses. Alabama’s defense is second in the country both overall and against the run, while Texas’ D is third in the country overall, and #1 against the run.

    The two teams ended the year in markedly different fashion, however. The Crimson Tide finished the regular season with a dominating statement win and cover over Florida in the SEC title game, while the Longhorns escaped with close wins over imperfect Big 12 teams in their final 2 games, losing both ATS by double digits.

    Justin7 ran the stats through his model to help shed some light on who might have an edge. Texas’ run game stalled at times during the regular season, while Alabama’s offense has a less than ideal balance. The matchup of the two offenses against the respective premiere defenses they will face has Justin with a small lean on a side.

  2. #2
    BEANTOWNJIM
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    HEY LOSHAK ASK JUSTIN 7 IF HE WANTS TO BET HIS SHIRT ON THE OVER I LIKE THE UNDER

    JUSTIN ONE WORD OF ADVICE IF PEOPLE ARE WATCHING YOU ON T.V. YOU HAVE TO CHANGE YOUR CLOTHES I KNOW THAT GREEN POLO SHIRT IS NICE BUT YOU HAVE TO WASH IT OCCASIONALLY.

    JUSTIN I'LL TAKE THE UNDER FOR THAT GREEN POLO GOLF SHIRT

  3. #3
    RockoSocko
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    hook em

  4. #4
    HoulihansTX
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    Under 45

  5. #5
    bigdaddyjames
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  6. #6
    mmike032
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    newsflash:
    Texas has #1 rush defense cause they play in a pass happy conference.
    Texas A&M gashed them for 39 points, 532 total yards with 190 on the ground.
    a lowly UGA defense held Texas A&M to 20 points, 471 total yds, with 109 on the ground.

    The closet team defensively Texas has played compared to Bama is Nebraska. We saw what happen there.

    only way Texas keeps this game within 2 scores is if Bama comes out flat and gets behind early.
    I'm a little worried about McElroy in the biggest game of his life but he showed in the SECC that he has the goods.

  7. #7
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by mmike032 View Post
    newsflash:
    Texas has #1 rush defense cause they play in a pass happy conference.
    Texas A&M gashed them for 39 points, 532 total yards with 190 on the ground.
    a lowly UGA defense held Texas A&M to 20 points, 471 total yds, with 109 on the ground.

    The closet team defensively Texas has played compared to Bama is Nebraska. We saw what happen there.

    only way Texas keeps this game within 2 scores is if Bama comes out flat and gets behind early.
    I'm a little worried about McElroy in the biggest game of his life but he showed in the SECC that he has the goods.
    175 pts

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  8. #8
    mmike032
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    it might be time to start watching some games and use some common sense instead of relying on a computer to make picks.
    with all due respect what is Justin's bowl record to date.
    I guessing 50% at best from the vids I've watched.
    I could be wrong though.

  9. #9
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by mmike032 View Post
    it might be time to start watching some games and use some common sense instead of relying on a computer to make picks.
    with all due respect what is Justin's bowl record to date.
    I guessing 50% at best from the vids I've watched.
    I could be wrong though.
    Bets plays in my spreadsheet have done better... In all different sports, 100% computer plays: 92-66-1, 14.6 ROR... But you're right, I don't use common sense. Just numbers.

  10. #10
    saintjames
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    yugihkopl

  11. #11
    HoulihansTX
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    Bets plays in my spreadsheet have done better... In all different sports, 100% computer plays: 92-66-1, 14.6 ROR... But you're right, I don't use common sense. Just numbers.
    Yea b/c Common-sense(The Public) only hit about 50% yearly. That's a losing strategy.. common sense.

    I'm with Justin on finding Fair lines, and value. Those who dont know that kind of info, or dont care will be the ones jumping on Cowboys -4. Too ignorant to know that that lines holds all the value on the Eagles side.

  12. #12
    HoulihansTX
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    Here goes another desperate attempt to make Justin back off a play of his.


    Take the UNDER in the GT game. The O/U is too dependent on big plays. Like you said in a few videos ago. " Run plays burn the clock at a bigger clip than passing plays." Though not your exact words, my paraphrase fits the bill.

    GT's D is soo putrid that Iowa should find success in the run game ,and burn clock. GT will find difficulty running the ball on Iowa consistently, and GT's only big play threat is their WR. But that can be game planed against with the time that has been allotted to both teams.

    Iowa ML
    UNDER 50.5

  13. #13
    mmike032
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoulihansTX View Post
    Yea b/c Common-sense(The Public) only hit about 50% yearly. That's a losing strategy.. common sense.

    I'm with Justin on finding Fair lines, and value. Those who dont know that kind of info, or dont care will be the ones jumping on Cowboys -4. Too ignorant to know that that lines holds all the value on the Eagles side.
    common sense as in why does Texas rank #1 in rush defense...
    does the computer know that they have played pass first offenses all season or does it just take the average yds allowed per game and compare to the rest of the teams in NCAA.

    on any given week whomever is playing Navy, or GT would have the top pass defense in the nation that week. nevermind they only passed 8 times, the defense held them to 25 YDs through the air.

    Does Texas' preformance agasint 1 of the top defensive teams ( Nebraska) not concern Texas backers?
    and I know a team is not as good as their best effort and not as bad as their worst, somewhere in b/t would be more likely.


    same situation last yr:
    Oklahoma was gonna light FLA up with that deadly passing attack

    GL for those on Texas.
    I'll eat crow if I'm wrong

  14. #14
    nj1035
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    Bama's defense is different than Nebraska's. Nebraska was getting pressure on McCoy easily by rushing 4 lineman. Suh was a BEAST of a pass rusher. Bama's D-line is more of a run-stopping line. They can definitely take up blockers, and Bama will be able to get pressure on McCoy, but only if they blitz the linebackers. I don't think the Bama's line by itself can get to McCoy consistently. If Bama blitzes that should free up some TE's or slot receivers.

  15. #15
    Jaug
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    Bets plays in my spreadsheet have done better... In all different sports, 100% computer plays: 92-66-1, 14.6 ROR... But you're right, I don't use common sense. Just numbers.
    Wow, great record sir.

  16. #16
    IrishTim
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaug View Post
    Wow, great record sir.
    Better than 58% for 160 picks is no joke. Unfortunately for those who want to tail the Texas lean, most of the advantage has been pounded out of it already.

    I've got some +5.5 and possibly will add w/ some ML.

  17. #17
    INVEGA MAN
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    Explain to me how a team comes out flat for a championship game

  18. #18
    ronaldo922
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    texas wont get to 10 points

  19. #19
    SpectacularBid
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    First time I ever actually watched..pretty good

  20. #20
    Bsters
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    Go Tide

  21. #21
    Busterflywheel
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    Great info as usual..

  22. #22
    Deuce II
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    These games are never close the Tide crushes texas

  23. #23
    obamaismyuncle
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  24. #24
    tjlampe
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    Roll Tide

  25. #25
    LT Profits
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    WOW, can't believe Justin and I are so far apart on this game.

    My official prediction is Alabama 27-16, but if I am off, I think there is a better chance of an Alabama blowout than a Texas cover, and I certainly don't see Texas winning outright.

    Longhorns couldn't score on the only two good defenses they faced all year, how are they going to score on the best defense in the country? I just don't see it.

  26. #26
    kenny123
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  27. #27
    Pensinger1
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    LT, u have the score backwards... 27-16 Longhorns.

  28. #28
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pensinger1 View Post
    LT, u have the score backwards... 27-16 Longhorns.
    I could GUARANTEE you that there is now way Texas scores more that 17 points here, unless it comes in garbage time after Bama has a safe lead. Horns scored 13 vs. Nebraska and 16 vs. Oklahoma, do you honestly expect much more here?

  29. #29
    Pensinger1
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I could GUARANTEE you that there is now way Texas scores more that 17 points here, unless it comes in garbage time after Bama has a safe lead. Horns scored 13 vs. Nebraska and 16 vs. Oklahoma, do you honestly expect much more here?
    yes, i honestly do. Texas by 10+.

  30. #30
    billyboy73
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    Alabama big!!!

  31. #31
    yisman
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    I like the under.

  32. #32
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pensinger1 View Post
    yes, i honestly do. Texas by 10+.
    Texas by 10+ over a team that allowed 11 points per game vs. a much tougher schedule? I think NOT.

  33. #33
    onthewhat
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    Nice call LT

    Blowout coming

  34. #34
    yisman
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    the problem is now we won't know how it would've played out without the McCoy injury.

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