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Examples of sharp money
Can anyone site a specific line change that you know was sharp? NCAA Basketball preferably, from this year.
I understand theoretically how sharp movement works (or at least that is what I like to tell myself...)
Excuse any ignorance, but any help would be appreciated...thanks.
Some places will show you percent of people on a game and % of money on each side.But generally when you see a majority % on one tema but that spread is going down is a obvious indictor.i personally see what i think is sharp money when a line first gets posted i notice many lines get pounded and most of the time win
I agree, Bigbills.
One exceptional case is when some breaking news causes market movements, at this situation sharp money will hit both lines and between there is not so sharp money. For example some crucial player is injured and odds are dropping fast. First sharp actions is seen backin the opposite team that gets advantage when player is injured. Then comes majority and bets more for the same reason, but they take way too low prices. Finally sharp money is backing on the team that has injured player and has get weaker, but despite of that it may be worth betting because odds are overheated by not so sharp money of majority. Commonly speking missing of just one player shouldnt cause any dramatic odds changes, just some 1-3%. If I miss first opportunity to back on dropping odds, in some cases, I'll take overheated odds from the other side. And that is profitable strategy in long term too. You only need to know basic strength of both teams and what that spesific one player would possible change, which is usually not so much.
Probably biggest sharp move yesterday was South Carolina going from -5 to -7 with 58% of bettors on Tennessee. As it turns out, they were pretty badly wrong. Can't win em all.
In NFL, line is -10, public moves it to 10.5, sharps immediately place big bets and it quickly moves back to 10, like on a bad team, say Jacksonville vs bengals this year
i never trust site quoting % bets. i got 2,000 guys betting $50 on Pats and 1,000 guys betting $200 on Sea
67% on Pats
which way should line go? one whale could offset 1,000s of bets, doesn't make it sharp money.
you guys that trust the % seen on sbr or at any book, have already lost... dont even bother hitting that button on sbrodds
noo its not the SBR one were talking aboutOriginally Posted by raydog
but im sure that would help get an idea also.
it doesnt matter where you pull the info from... you arent going to get anything accurate from anywhere ... a general ballpark idea, maybe on some obvious games...
Line movements happen in last 10-15 minutes are always more efficient then early line movements. Line movement is very efficient (when determining the winner) in NCAA and NBA, specially totals. Followed by NHL and MLB. Not very efficient in NFL. But worst of worst is Tennis. There isn't anything such as sharp money, sharp bet or value bet in tennis. Even most dramatical line movements may end up with a heartbreaking, disappointing results. Match fixing is another story though, the only value bet in Tennis is match fixing, you know the guys; Fognini, Dolgopolov, Davydonkey etc.
Last edited by Sawyer; 01-22-15 at 04:30 AM.
My RoI against closing tennis prices is about a third less than vs openers. Also, correlation of btcl vs my RoI is very strong.
The tradeoff is that limits are a severe problem at opening.
I recommend to follow pinnacle on twitter. They share sometimes that info and they even have an article about it:
http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/bet...etshare-tweets
But I wouldn't trust on indirect sources like people said above.
I'd be willing to bet SBR matches up with Pinnacle. If you are just looking for info, it is a good source such as maybe staying off a bet. If you want to bet based on what the sharps are betting, it's too late to do that anyway. Using it for betting purposes will be a loser either way.
Don't think this is always true. Sometimes the money on the square side is large enough to prevent the sharps to move the line. This is rare but happens. Read the Kansas City Case on pinny article. Despite he big bets on Kansas, all the public was on LA and the line didn't move.
Appreciate the insight gentlemen.
Good post. Thanks for your take on it, Sawyer.
I see no reason (and I don’t have to be right) why tennis shouldn’t “work” in line with the other markets. When I lay my program down, as much work as it is, I too
see some results.
All sports are different, but understanding the similarities between markets can really improve your selections. I’m not going to question you sawyer, I believe you understand the markets. I am not trying to argue here.
If your overall stats are showing nothing remarkable for tennis, maybe there’s a contextual issue. For example, an NFL team may win 30-24, but the overall stat will not reflect the context, if you will, of the victory. Like in the NFC Championship game, one team scored some 15 points in the last two minutes. Even a breakdown of halves may miss that. I realize this can all be considered noise, but these markets are dynamic and may need to be looked at more specifically. Sometimes, especially with the fixed matches, there is reason for the noise. When it comes to the lines offered, even line movements on a given day are subject to the conditions and matches of that specific day, never to be exactly the same again. One must pay attention, folow the money, and remember. This is a topic for another thread and can be difficult to convey without experience.
As far as I know, tennis is one of the largest markets in the world. With all that money, some is bound to make its way to the sharper bettors, and the market must reflect it more often than not. If it doesn’t then I believe it can still be worked, just with a different approach.
No matter the market, always follow the money.
Very interesting. Sawyer tends to be one of the better posters here at SBR.
Sharp money example 1/24
If you are looking for a decent example of sharp money influencing a point spread, take a look at tonight's VCU vs St Louis game. The line opened up at VCU -13 in most places and based upon a quick review of several different sites that offer the public bet %, it looks like VCU is getting roughly 70% of all bets being placed ATS. Despite this significant majority of bets backing VCU, the line has actually dropped to 12.5 (and I've even saw 12 at one point). In this case, the assumption would be that there is sharp money backing St. Louis- which makes sense since you've got a usually solid program (though down year) in St Louis, at home in a conference game while getting double digits... This is the epitome of a wise guy playCan anyone site a specific line change that you know was sharp? NCAA Basketball preferably, from this year.
I understand theoretically how sharp movement works (or at least that is what I like to tell myself...)
Excuse any ignorance, but any help would be appreciated...thanks.
When a line opens and gets pounded it could be "sharp" money, but sharp money trying to get the opposing number that he wants. Sometimes "sharps" hit lines early to get others on them to get the number where they want it only to take the other side later on.
Last edited by jtoler; 01-23-15 at 06:17 PM.
Just picked up this thread so sorry a little late. Not trying to argue either...Just would like to hear more of your thoughts on this.
Personally I think that following the bet percentages from a few different sites for both sides and totals are very helpful....especially when you look at line movement. Most times just simply going against any big public percentage plays (say 70% or higher) is a nice way to bet.
Again why don't you trust the bet percentages posted on sites like Scores and odds, pregame, vegas insiders etc? and you dont think this is helpful info? Just wondering why. Thanks for your info ahead of time.
I’ve posted many times that it’s not the information you use, but how you use it. Are those percentages you see useful, yes to experienced they can be useful. But this is very dangerous ground for most handicappers.
You ask why some don’t trust those posted percentages. I’m going to tell you. That information is blatantly wrong or at best misleading. There is no obligation by anyone to post correct information, so they don’t. The only harm is that some know it isn’t credible and won’t visit the site for that information. Some of us can use the information, but certainly not like most would think and it is complex.
Some of the credibility issues arise when the numbers actually are accurate. In these cases the problem is, even if it says it is money being reflected, it’s most often bets that are being shown. It doesn’t need to be truthful as those truths are well guarded.
For example, if there was a posted 70% on the home team, it could mean 70% percent of the bets taken are on the home team. That could mean seven $10 bets were taken on the home team. Of the three road bets taken, one of them could be $100.
So you see, the money isn’t really reflected accurately. Now, you could assume that if 70% of the bets were on the home team then they must have more money. But if you understand the marketplace, you would know that a very small percentage of bets represent the largest amount of money…a bit counter-intuitive.
There’s even a case where those posted numbers reflect speculation…but we won’t get into that.
There’s the oddsmaker, the bookmaker, and the player. It’s a three way street and most think it’s just a race for information. The truth is it’s not the information you have, we all have it; it’s how you use that information.
I’ve often found that it’s not that bettors, SBR included, don’t know things, it’s that so much they know is wrong.
Hopefully this will get some of you thinking and maybe even get you a few more winners or at least a few less losers.
Last edited by KVB; 02-03-15 at 11:35 PM. Reason: Typos
I’ve posted many times that it’s not the information you use, but how you use it. Are those percentages you see useful, yes to experienced they can be useful. But this is very dangerous ground for most handicappers.
You ask why some don’t trust those posted percentages. I’m going to tell you. That information is blatantly wrong or at best misleading. There is no obligation by anyone to post correct information, so they don’t. The only harm is that some know it isn’t credible and won’t visit the site for that information. Some of us can use the information, but certainly not like most would think and it is complex.
Some of the credibility issues arise when the numbers actually are accurate. In these cases the problem is, even if it says it is money being reflected, it’s most often bets that are being shown. It doesn’t need to be truthful as those truths are well guarded.
For example, if there was a posted 70% on the home team, it could mean 70% percent of the bets taken are on the home team. That could mean seven $10 bets were taken on the home team. Of the three road bets taken, one of them could be $100.
So you see, the money isn’t really reflected accurately. Now, you could assume that if 70% of the bets were on the home team then they must have more money. But if understand the marketplace, you would now that a very small percentage bets the largest amount of money…a bit counter-intuitive.
There’s even a case where those posted numbers reflect speculation…but we won’t get into that.
There’s the oddsmaker, the bookmaker, and the player. It’s a three way street and most think it’s just a race for information. The truth is it’s not the information you have, we all have it; it’s how you use that information.
I’ve often found that it’s not that bettors, SBR included, don’t know things, it’s that so much they know is wrong.
Hopefully this will get some of you thinking and maybe even get you a few more winners or at least a few less losers.
“I’ve gamblin’ hereabouts,
For ten good solid years.
And if I told you ‘bout all that went down,
It would burn off both your little ears.”
---Jerry Garcia
You could say the opening line of the Super Bowl New England +3 was considered SHARP... when it moved from +3 to PK within 30 minutes. All the SHARPS were on New England +3 immediately.Can anyone site a specific line change that you know was sharp? NCAA Basketball preferably, from this year.
I understand theoretically how sharp movement works (or at least that is what I like to tell myself...)
Excuse any ignorance, but any help would be appreciated...thanks.
It's hard to find an accurate source when SHARP money comes into play.
Some would say... a SOFT opening line would cause uneven money on one side to come in... would that be considered SHARP? It could.
All SHARP really is (in my book) is a capper who already did his homework... already has calculated his line... and is waiting for it to be LIVE on the board.
SHARP, PUBLIC FLOW, and PERCENTAGES all seem to correlate.
As for line movement... 99% of the free websites are delayed by 45 minutes to 2 hours. It doesn't help you much if you're looking for some sort of "movement" indication on a game. You could use a site like DonBest for $500 a month... they claim their delay is 2 seconds. But no one can really afford $500 a month unless you truly are professional.
Best Examples of sharp money can be observed in China Basket League and Philippiness Basket league. Money talks in these leagues.
Sawyer Ive noticed the movement 10 minutes or so from post is most efficient as you mentioned. it never fails me that a bet placed at this time where you see the line moving your way is always right a significant % of the time ... If it moves against you brace for the worst.
Someone posted above but steam plays and lines moving against public opinion are sharp. rayray knows what he's talking about since he sees this first hand.
There are so many head fakes in college hoops by sharps,tough to know what side the sharp money is really on at times.
there is no such thing as a sharp
nobody can predict how kids or adults play on any given day
square thread
donbest has/had a service that tracked wise guy money
yeh it ends up between 48-52 percent all the time
which means major loser
Utah is one today.....36% of the spread... -6 to -7......good luck
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