Stat Experts,

Another question I have been struggling with. My Baseball model projects a total that I can compare to the total given by the sportsbook. However, I simply have no idea how to convert that into a winning percentage. It seems like it should be easy but I have really been struggling with this. I assume it would have something to do with the scoring distribution which I have - just not sure how to apply it.

For example - If my model predicts the total as say 7.72 and the total is at 8.5 - what is my edge on a -105 line? When the number is closer I need to know if I even have an edge at all.

Thank you in advance,

Red