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Detroit Tigers +125 (-1.5 run line) over Houston
And this is why:
(remember, the best time to wager a run line is when you like a favored home team on the road, the main reason is the favored team is guranteed to get a ninth inning turn at bat for tack on or come from behind runs, where as if the home team is up 3-2 after 8 innings, and the closer shuts them down in the top of the ninth, you are screwed)
1) Yes, I am fully aware Justin Verlander is starting, and for the most part he's been terrible this season, however, his last start it looked like he made some adjustments, and was sharp in giving up 2 ER on 5 hits, walking 1, strking out 8 while his 'pen puked up a win to a very good (yes, they hit well) Indian team.
This suggests JV is on a rebound.
2) Even an off Verlander is a couple of runs better than Houston starter Brad Peacock. *doing my best Beavis voice "heh, heh, he said Peacock"
3) Even though the feeling here is Verlander is still better than Peacock, Houston's offense can not sniff Detroit's offense's jocks is the main reason why I like the run line tonight.
What scenario is better?
Hunter, V-Mart, Miggy, Kinsler, Hunter, the rest versus Peacock to score runs in bunches
or
(yes, I am fully aware the Astro kids future is bright, but still doesn't change the fact Houston is dead last, or near dead last in every hitting category, like runs scored, etc.)
Atuve, Springer, Dominquez, Carter, Fowler, etc. etc. versus Verlander.
Now I am not a giant Verlander fan myself, I totally give the dude his props for what he has done the last decade, so this is not a play from the heart is what I am trying to say, but look at both sides of the coin realistically, with a level head, and ask yourself this?
Can Houston's lineup go hit for hit versus Detroit's lineup?
One line up is tied for fourth in the league in offense, the other is next to last.
And if Houston can match Detroit hit for hit (feeling here is they can't and won't) can Peacock go toe to toe, pitch for ptich versus Verlander.
OK, I have made my points, no need for posting charts etc...
You get the gist, I like Detroit, run line +125
I really, really, really like this play.
A shitload
(no, not unloading, I don't unload, I am big on money managememt) but still, did I mention I really, really, really, like this play.
But what do I know?
Tigers
-1.5 runs +125 reduced juice 5D
3* bomb
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Originally Posted by TwoWays
