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Hedging bets with MLB Live Betting?
I have read some people about hedging bets through MLB live betting. Do you guys have any suggestions on how to use live betting successfully? I have never made a live bet but am thinking that it may be something that can be successful. Thank you in advance.
Last edited by Kababayan; 04-01-14 at 09:45 PM.
Bet on a big ML underdog.
If they take the lead at some point in the game (or sometimes they can simply be tied in the late innings), the odds will change and you can cash out a profit by hedging on the other side.
Its tougher to hedge if you start out betting on a favorite. If the favorite takes the lead, then you can use hedging to ensure you win something but it really hurts your profit margins. In theory if you have a favorite and they take the lead, then most people will just ride them out and hope they win.
I think hedging live is a great tool for people that want to really grind.
Thank you for the input
Its great to use when you see something that maybe wasn't going the way you thought it would. There has been many times I had an Under on a basketball game and the game was going at an extremely quicker pace than I expected. Normally if you wait until their is a lull in scoring which usually takes place in hoops then you can hit that over and buy out of that original position.
Also in baseball if there is a home favorite say -150 thru -200 and in the top of the 1st the away team hits 1 random solo homerun but your pitcher still looked great and didn't get in any trouble. You can then get that home favorite with the whole game left at a much better price.
It also can be great in football if you like an over when the total is really high. If the total is 65+ in college or 50+ in nfl the majority of time at some point during the 1st quarter you will get a much better total than the closing line. I can't recall exact examples but I do remember a total in nfl that was 55 I believe it was a bronco game. After one scoreless possession and a punt the total was then 51.5, when the other team also had to punt it went to 47.5. Which is when I bet the over, it was still only 7-8 minutes into the game. It landed on 50, giving me a win instead of a loss.
Basketball especially NBA which is a sport of several runs. There is plenty of times a team will be up 10 in the 1st quarter only to be trailing at halftime. I have a buddy who is very successful at taking a 7-8 point dog on the ML when he believes it will be very competitive early. If that favorite is down 6-8 points early which is nothing in the nba he then takes the favorite just to win the game at -110. Giving him a free roll on the +300 ticket. I haven't tried this approach with the nba as I find the product tedious to watch until the playoffs lol.
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I have been doing VERY well live betting. It is at times consuming but very profitable. Everyone has there opinions on it, some will tell you the juice is too high, etc. But the fact is live betting is a resource, if you do not use all your resources you aren't putting your best foot forward. Now you can live bet when you see a big line. As mentioned dogs work well. The other night the Ducks trailed 2-1 end of 2nd period and were +526 on the 3-way line to win. They won 3-2.Originally Posted by Kababayan
The prices get so inflated when a team drops down early it is almost always a good idea to get the dog if they have a good shot. There are so many ways to profit it's hard to list them all. Favs who are winning with good pens are reliable on the RL. Stay away from O/U runs or hits in single innings. You may think you have an edge based on who is coming up but I promise that is all factored in.
As for your question on hedging. It's simple. You have $100 on the Brewers -118 last night. They took 2-0 lead in I think the 4th inning. At that point in game you are probably looking at Braves +1.5 at good odds or ML at 2-3 to 1. So you throw 50 on them and you can't lose money.
Thank you for the advice GiveMeaBJ (Gosh, that feels odd to write.)
You should only hedge if:
1. You think the hedge bet is +EV on its own.
2. You overbet the original side and need to reduce your exposure for bankroll considerations.
3. You stand to win a life-altering amount of money (this usually only applies to contests, 100-1 futures, game shows, etc.)
Hedging with a -EV or even neutral EV bet reduces variance at the expense of also reducing EV. Since the goal for most bettors is to maximize EV (while maintaining an appropriate risk of ruin), you do not want to voluntarily give away your EV by hedging for the sake of hedging.
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Good info here, and hopefully a lot more to come
If anyone has any ideas on the best ways to use live betting I would be interested in hearing what you have to say
Thank you to all who responded.
Live betting has even better and more likely wins with higher payoffs sometimes too. Runs and spurts (or lack of) at a certain time leaves room for error and readjusting.
Just today okc vs rockets during a run got rockets +4.5 should have taken them at +6.5 when i had the chance those points were guarenteed wins!!!
Hedging is nice...but middling is even better.
Good way to alienate your favorite/ main book so you should have an additional account if you want to go for this method.
Also, forgot to mention the O/U's. If you are betting an under say 8.5. If after 6 innings it is like a 1-1 game. You can probably get an O/U of somewhere between 3.5-4.5 depending on the teams and pens. Leaves you a nice 4 run window to hit both. This isn't something you shouldn't do every time the opportunity presents itself but it is something you should pay attention to and get a feel for. Then you can make some money.
Like people said occasionally it will cut into your profits (which sucks) but you also limit your risk with the possibility to hit both.
Last edited by GiveMeaBJ; 04-05-14 at 07:47 AM.
Like giver says it's time-consuming and you have to be in front of a computer all the time
If you're just a small player there is no need to hedge
Hedging more for professional player
Yes very time consuming. I wouldnt live bet looking to hedge. I would live bet to find good value. If it ends up being a hedge or middle opp then that is just a bonus. But the books are forces to overreact to certain situations live betting to not get killed by someone who wants to lay big money on a game with a sizeable lead.
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