1. #1
    thunderous
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    How to hedge this?

    So I have a 4 team parlay which is paying 40/890. First 3 are done and the one left is Alt Madrid +115 but with Soccer having 3 way lines can't figure the best way to hedge. Currently I see the odds listed as:

    Alt Madrid +115
    AC Milan +285
    Draw +225

    Goal line is -190 Alt Madrid and +162 AC Milan

    Any suggestions/ideas appreciated.

    Thanks.

  2. #2
    InTheDrink
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    so if you play ac milan on the goal line and it's a draw then you push out and hit the three teamer

    your best play is to play the ac +162 goal line, otherwise you'd have to play some on ac and some on the draw on the 3 way lines and your risk would be greater to get an equal payout on your hedge on the latter vs. the former

    my advice...you got the fav in play....let it ride gueye

  3. #3
    EasyPicks
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    my suggestion

    hedge AC +0.5 @-137


    imo this game will probably be like yesterday (everyone and their mother were on Man City pk saying that Barca isn't what it used to be bla bla bla) and tonight almost everyone likes Madrid to take the win at San Siro....be careful on riding a team that hasn't prove themselves in the CL in like...forever!

  4. #4
    addictedto
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    Hedge hedge hedge or you will be crying tonight. Play either double chance Milan, or Asian Handicap Milan +0.5. The odds are about 1.80 in European odds. Use a hedging calculator and make it equal for any outcome. Then thank me later

  5. #5
    barca12
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    Do not hedge, I have seen every Atletico game this year and most of Milan games, this isnt 90s, only thing thats left of Milan is their history, Atletico are easily top 5 team in the world and have a probably top coach in the world. He does not like to lose and his guys will give their all tonight against Milan and should comfortably stroll to 0-2 victory. Milan are laughable team with bunch of unknowns and plenty of 30+ years of age players..thats a winning ticket buddy, just enjoy the game and take the money after

  6. #6
    Vaughany
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    you shouldnt hedge unless you have new information. Otherwise why put Atletico in in the first place? If you are going to hedge then just play Milan double chance

  7. #7
    jjgold
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    If your hedging you should not of made bet in 1st place, we are talking about peanuts here guy, let it ride and nail this.

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  8. #8
    onemoregoal
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    You could hedge to win like $100 if AC or draw happens... you dont have to balance it exactly.
    so $180 @ -120 for ac +0.5 = 325
    $220 risked, either $325 back or $ 890 for the result you wanted in the first place.......
    personal preference, no advice is correct.

  9. #9
    onemoregoal
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    atletico takes it 1-2 1-3 though!

  10. #10
    thunderous
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    Quote Originally Posted by addictedto View Post
    Hedge hedge hedge or you will be crying tonight. Play either double chance Milan, or Asian Handicap Milan +0.5. The odds are about 1.80 in European odds. Use a hedging calculator and make it equal for any outcome. Then thank me later
    Problem is that my book is offering both teams PK...if I had option of +.5 on AC Milan then would not have to think....

    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    you shouldnt hedge unless you have new information. Otherwise why put Atletico in in the first place? If you are going to hedge then just play Milan double chance
    I have to...hate leaving guaranteed money on the table. Losing $40 is not a big deal because I normally bet 50-100 in straight bets but if there is a way I get paid 400-500 on all 3 sides I'd want that option any day.

    If I bet 220 on draw @2.25 and 180 on Milan @275 then that leaves me with 490 profit on Madrid, 275 on Draw and 226 on Milan....not the best scenario so gonna wait until game time and see

  11. #11
    SarahPalin
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    i have a feeling that milan could win or get a point outta this game

  12. #12
    harthebar
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    play 150 on a draw and 100 on A C
    arent the odds saying you have a better chance at a draw then ac winning
    something is better than noithing even know athlitico madrid should win

  13. #13
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by InTheDrink View Post
    so if you play ac milan on the goal line and it's a draw then you push out and hit the three teamer

    your best play is to play the ac +162 goal line, otherwise you'd have to play some on ac and some on the draw on the 3 way lines and your risk would be greater to get an equal payout on your hedge on the latter vs. the former

    my advice...you got the fav in play....let it ride gueye
    No he would lose the three-teamer with a Draw.

  14. #14
    InTheDrink
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    No he would lose the three-teamer with a Draw.
    Ahh yea good catch

    Then if he wants to hedge he'd have to play two of the three way lines.

    i.e. More reason not to hedge

  15. #15
    thunderous
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    Couldn't resist....got 200 on Milan PK+165 and 120 on Draw+225

    So it looks like this

    Madrid +570
    Draw +230
    Milan +170

  16. #16
    thunderous
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    Quote Originally Posted by InTheDrink View Post
    Ahh yea good catch

    Then if he wants to hedge he'd have to play two of the three way lines.

    i.e. More reason not to hedge
    That is the reason I was having trouble coming up with a reasonable hedge.

  17. #17
    onemoregoal
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    Cant you bet on another book?
    How can you not have AC +0.5 - thats the main line?

  18. #18
    pellumb341
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    So I have a 4 team parlay which is paying 40/890. First 3 are done and the one left is Alt Madrid +115 but with Soccer having 3 way lines can't figure the best way to hedge. Currently I see the odds listed as:

    Alt Madrid +115
    AC Milan +285
    Draw +225

    wager $231 on Milan --> $231 * 3,85 = $890
    wager $274 on draw --> $274 * 3,25 = $890

    you have wagered a total of $231 + $274 + $40 = $545
    your payout is $890 whatever the outcome is
    you net profit is $345

    cheers !!!

  19. #19
    Semper Fidelis
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    You should possibly make one wager before the match starts, and then another at halftime, depending on how the match has progressed. You can easily get very good odds on Milan ML or Draw if Athletico is up 1-0 at HT. If they're up by 2 or more goals, I'd only hedge with the Draw, as they are much less likely to come back down that big of a deficit. Also, this way you won't have to wager near as much since the odds will be so high. So I'd make one on either Milan or the Draw pre-match, then adjust fire if need be at the half. Good luck whatever you decide to do buddy!

  20. #20
    InTheDrink
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    Quote Originally Posted by pellumb341 View Post
    wager $231 on Milan --> $231 * 3,85 = $890
    wager $274 on draw --> $274 * 3,25 = $890

    you have wagered a total of $231 + $274 + $40 = $545
    your payout is $890 whatever the outcome is
    you net profit is $345

    cheers !!!
    Your math may be right but Jesus Christ this would be an awful play

    It's called gambling for a reason

  21. #21
    edabramov
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    I don't get it. Do you not have Asian Handicap? Play Milan DC or +.5 no need to bet on a draw and a win. Milan is not winning this though. Probably playing for a draw, Balotelli isn't as good as people make him out to be. Yeh, good shot last week but vs Bologna in late minutes, ride it out.

  22. #22
    bihon
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    With the above numbers you put around 54% on draw and 46% on Milan.
    Total amount depends on your risk/reward wishes, having just above $500 for en equal/sure win (as Pellumb341 wrote).

  23. #23
    thunderous
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    Quote Originally Posted by edabramov View Post
    I don't get it. Do you not have Asian Handicap? Play Milan DC or +.5 no need to bet on a draw and a win. Milan is not winning this though. Probably playing for a draw, Balotelli isn't as good as people make him out to be. Yeh, good shot last week but vs Bologna in late minutes, ride it out.
    The advantages of playing at a local....

  24. #24
    edabramov
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    Did you ride it out? Was a sweatfest Kaka shoulda scored but the better team won.

  25. #25
    thunderous
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    Quote Originally Posted by edabramov View Post
    Did you ride it out? Was a sweatfest Kaka shoulda scored but the better team won.
    Well I did hedge some....320 to be precise but happy with the 570 I made plus I had 200 on Bayern so over all not a bad day!

    And guess what? I have 2 more parlays going

    2nd half Madrid +155
    2nd half Bayern -250
    Tottenham +161 (tomorrow)

    Pays 60/499

    and another one with the same teams plus Creighton -150 which pays 30/435 so if Creighton wins tonight then I am looking at 90/934 with Tottenham remaining. If Creighton wins then its a must hedge situation for me but if it loses then might ride it out

    Any thoughts on Tottenham match tomorrow?

  26. #26
    RudyRuetigger
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    Jesus christ pal

    do you realize you are playing 2 team parlays then juicing urself out the ass to call them 3 teamers
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  27. #27
    thunderous
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    Jesus christ pal

    do you realize you are playing 2 team parlays then juicing urself out the ass to call them 3 teamers
    Yeah I do realize that but these are bets I make just for the sake of it (like this one which I won had Madrid + Bobcats +7.5 + PSG 1st half + Man City Draw 1st half which is totally senseless and had no expectations of winning it) but if gets to the 4th team and hedging is a viable option then I don't think there's anything wrong looking into it. Like I said if Creighton doesn't win tonight then I am not hedging the 3 teamer because it just does not make sense because I like Tottenham to win but with the Creighton win it becomes a bonus and have no problem giving some back to the book which some might not agree with.

  28. #28
    GRIZZ
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    You should make a spreadsheet with some hedging formulas.

    Whenever I need to hedge I just plug in the odds and initial bet amount and it puts out the exact amount I need to bet to either a) not lose any money, b) win the same amount regardless of the outcome or c) let it ride and hope for the best.

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