Denver is going to win the super bowl as I have been saying since before the season started. The losses of Von Miller and Ryan Clady hurt, but nothing is going to stop Peyton Manning from winning the title this year. There has been absolutely nothing this year that has happened to change my mind.
The NFC is WIDE FCUKING OPEN!!!
There is one school of thought that Seattle is unbeatable at home and they will meet Denver in the Super Bowl. I think Seattle is about a 10-6 or 11-5 team masking as a #1 seed. Look at some of the close games they won that they should have lost. The Texans who were the worst team in the NFL this year according to standings, they barely beat Tampa at home. They barely beat the Kellen Clemens Rams mid year.
Seattle's biggest problem is that Russell Wilson is a game manager and he's not that good. I give high credit to Todd Bowles from Arizona for exploiting what I have seen all year. Russell Wilson is not a very good pocket passer. He is short and can't see the damn field. He has more designed roll outs than any QB. Even when he is supposed to take a 5 or 7 step drop, at the first hint of pressure he rolls right so he can see his target and throw. That's great and all if you do it occasionally but he does it all the time.
Did you see what Arizona did? They made their defensive ends and outside pass rushers rush DEEPER in an effort to keep Wilson in the pocket and make him play pocket QB - which he sucks at. A normal pass rush that comes at him, he backs up, breaks contain, starts running to his right and makes a throw. What Arizona did 2 weeks ago is make him stand in the pocket and feel the pass rush and make a throw. He was awful. Terrible. The Giants 3 weeks ago and what Arizona did last week also is blitz him more and cover up those short hot routes he has made a living off of.
Plus with Brandon Browner out, Maxwell isn't as good. Let's be honest here also, Seattle's DBs have been mugging wide receivers all year and getting away with it. How about that game in SF where the refs let them play but even Aikman and Buck were pointing out all of the contact and holding. If the refs start enforcing the DPI rules that will also hurt Seattle a lot.
- SF has beat Seattle this year and could do it again, yes even in Seattle
- Carolina lost on a fluke in week 1 to Seattle when Deanglo Williams fumbled at the goal line. That's another win that Seattle had that they should have lost. Plus Cam and the defense has improved as the year went on.
You could make a case for each and every team in the NFC to go to the super bowl, yes even Philly. Foles has been outstanding, the run game is dynamic and their defense has improved a lot as the year went on.
Brees and Rodgers already won super bowls, I wouldn't count them out. How many times have we seen wild card teams go to or win the super bowl? Eli Manning. Ben Roethlistburger. Aaron Rodgers.
I was a 60% capper this year. No official picks last week but 3 out of the 4 picks I was interested in won and covered. Philly won but didn't cover and even then I said, "I like Phila to win but I am not sure they cover the spread".
These teams played a few weeks ago and the Colts won 23-7. The Chiefs have gone 2-5 after winning their first 9 games. Andy Reid is not very good in the play offs. All signs point to the Colts winning.
Here is a look at the other side. Chiefs have scored 38, 28, 45, 56, 7, and 24 points and have a solid defense. The 7 they scored was of course against Indy and that was at home. Alex Smith probably won't lose this game. I sort of lean the under here as I don't see the Colts scoring a lot, and the Chiefs run the ball, and have dink and dunk sustainable drives. Maybe they will just dink and dunk, have Alex Smith manage the game and win? Maybe the Colts will force Alex Smith to do something.
I just see the Colts winning so they get a trip to Denver for a media wet dream, the Manning vs Luck bowl. I don't like the Colts as much without Reggie Wayne though and the Chiefs could win.
Spread is probably higher than it should be because San Diego barley beat the Chiefs scrubs last week but think about this.
San Diego has won 4 in a row, 5 out of 6 and they don't lose by much either. They lost their games this year by 7,4,8,6, 10, 3, 3.
So San Diego getting 7 points this year would have been 13-2-1
Rivers is better than Dalton and he has won at Arrowhead this year in impressive fashion.
Bengals are undefeated at home and yes, I would have liked to see better effort from the Chargers last week in a do or die situation last week at home against scrubs.
Rivers vs Bengals will be fun to watch, but Dalton throwing picks could lose the game for Cincy.
I do think Cincy wins to get a rematch against New England who they already beat this year. With that said I think the Chargers ATS is a much better bet and Andy Dalton is not a good teaser candidate.
49ers have won 6 in a row and could be that wild card team that goes to the Super Bowl. This is the best bet of the week, take the 49ers. Rodgers is an amazing QB and the Pack have a running game but they are simply out matched here. The 49ers defense is very tough and the Packers defense is currently swiss cheese. The 49ers should run all over the Packers and it puts a lot of pressure on AR.
This is a tough one. Saints suck on the road, Eagles are also actually a better road team. It is hard playing in front of the worst fans in America.
Phila has won 7 out of 8 games. I really like what Chip Kelly did this year. Their defense has improved a lot.
With that said I think the Saints probably pull this off and get a rematch in Seattle. Longer term that probably helps the Hawks because I don't think the would beat both the 49ers and Carolina, but if they play the Saints and one of the 2 that is more reasonable.
I watched the Colts/Chiefs game on tape this weekend. The Colts won 23-7 but got some lucky turnovers and had the lead. With that said KC is the sort of team that can't ever get behind in a game. Alex Smith had to take more chances instead of be dink and dunk game manager.
The books are saying KC is the better team here but I actually started to like the Colts defense.
Good write-ups. I'm not sure on San Fran because of the weather....which is why I'm staying away. I think San Fran's the better team, but how often does a California team play in a game where frostbite becomes an issue? And now they're saying heavy winds could come in with some snow. San Fran could very well win, but I have a weird feeling weird things are going to happen tomorrow and one of those teams is going to be turnover stricken. Just not sure which one.
My two plays are actually two O/Us. I think the Chiefs-Colts game is going to be high scoring so going with the over. I also like the under in the San Diego game. It was 17-10 the first time they played. I don't know what's changed that would add 3 TDs to the total...and of course, weather could be a nasty issue there with rain/snow.
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