1. #1
    LT Profits
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    Fresno State in a Classic "Buy Low" Spot This Week?

    Fresno is -3.5 at home in Mountain West Championship Game. That seems like an overreaction to the loss at San Jose, I still expect Carr to be his usual self and Utah State lacks the firepower to keep pace. Yes the Aggies won their last five games without Chuckie Keeton, but they had a ridiculously easy schedule during that stretch in fact being double-digit favorites in all five games, and only one of those games was on the road, which was a narrow non-covering 28-24 escape at UNLV. Perhaps most disconcerting is Utah State is averaging just 314.0 total yards over the last three weeks on 3.3 yards per rush and 6.4 yards per pass attempt despite the easy schedule (especially relative to Fresno State). I know Bulldogs have been dreadful ATS, but they have not been this small of a favorite much either.

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  2. #2
    Big Bear
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    i thought the same thing when i saw that line

  3. #3
    Smoke
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    They lost to san jose...no way

  4. #4
    Vinnie Paz
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    Off topic but what you feel about louisville -3.5 vs cincy? Is this on a neutral site??? Either way this looks way low.

  5. #5
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    They lost to san jose...no way
    San Jose had a great passer in David Fales. Utah State lost its quarterback 8 weeks ago and hasn't beaten a good team without Keeton. Don't get me wrong, Fresno State will give up points because they always do . I just don't think Utah State will score ENOUGH.

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  6. #6
    LT Profits
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    I already posted Cincinnati +3.5 -110 at Bookmaker. Don't know if its still available. (Oh and Lousivillekid1, close your eyes).

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  7. #7
    LT Profits
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    Oh and its a normal home game for Cinci at Nippert

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  8. #8
    Smoke
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    Ok.

  9. #9
    turbozed
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    I'm seeing Fresno State as having one of the worst year-to-date strength of schedule in the league for semi-decent teams (top 50 power rankings) aside from Louisville. Line seems about right.
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  10. #10
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    I'm seeing Fresno State as having one of the worst year-to-date strength of schedule in the league for semi-decent teams (top 50 power rankings) aside from Louisville. Line seems about right.
    Both teams basically same schedule, Aggies SOS gets a bump because of one game at USC pre-Orgeron. Utah State lucked out because timing of weak part of schedule allowed them to win games with no Keeton and frankly not much offense the last three weeks.

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  11. #11
    billysink
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    Utah State defense gets no mention at all. A unit that Fremeau has ranked 11th overall inclusive of SOS.

    The highest rated defense by 50 spots that Fresno will face this year. To say that Fresno State has played a patsie schedule is an understatement.

    Some would point out the "bubble burst" theory as being worth mention as well. Tough to motivate after your first loss wipes you right off the national landscape. What are they playing for now?

    There is a reason that Fremeau ranks a one loss team 57th in overall efficiency, Team Rankings 65th overall and Sagarin has them 61st, all well behind Utah State. They haven't played anyone. All of these ratings take SOS into the calculation.

    I don't know how you buy low on something that was grossly overvalued by most in the first place.
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  12. #12
    greenhippo
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    Just look at me, you going to root for someone like me?
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  13. #13
    SplitAces
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Fresno is -3.5 at home in Mountain West Championship Game. That seems like an overreaction to the loss at San Jose, I still expect Carr to be his usual self and Utah State lacks the firepower to keep pace. Yes the Aggies won their last five games without Chuckie Keeton, but they had a ridiculously easy schedule during that stretch in fact being double-digit favorites in all five games, and only one of those games was on the road, which was a narrow non-covering 28-24 escape at UNLV. Perhaps most disconcerting is Utah State is averaging just 314.0 total yards over the last three weeks on 3.3 yards per rush and 6.4 yards per pass attempt despite the easy schedule (especially relative to Fresno State). I know Bulldogs have been dreadful ATS, but they have not been this small of a favorite much either.
    Im with you LT

  14. #14
    pavyracer
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    Smart money is on Utah St. You don't want to bet against smart money at this spot. Utah St is unstoppable the last 5 games whereas Fresno St is in a letdown spot after losing big last game.
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  15. #15
    Killer_Demo
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    Fresno comes out on fire this weekend. Last home game in the dog-pound. Fresno has something to prove since getting carved up by Fales last week in San Jose

  16. #16
    thetrinity
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Utah State defense gets no mention at all. A unit that Fremeau has ranked 11th overall inclusive of SOS.

    The highest rated defense by 50 spots that Fresno will face this year. To say that Fresno State has played a patsie schedule is an understatement.

    Some would point out the "bubble burst" theory as being worth mention as well. Tough to motivate after your first loss wipes you right off the national landscape. What are they playing for now?

    There is a reason that Fremeau ranks a one loss team 57th in overall efficiency, Team Rankings 65th overall and Sagarin has them 61st, all well behind Utah State. They haven't played anyone. All of these ratings take SOS into the calculation.

    I don't know how you buy low on something that was grossly overvalued by most in the first place.
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