1. 10-31-13 06:36 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    North Texas -3.5 Thursday over Rice

    It's an unusually busy Football Thursday with 5 games, 4 CFB + the NFL game, and this is probably the lowest profile game of the night. Yet, so far, it is the only game I have a bet on (although that could change later). Unfortunately, the bet I have is North Texas -5.5 and the line has since dropped two points! Regardless, one of the first things that Coach Dan McCarney said when he was hired by UNT this year was that he wanted to establish a strong home field advantage in the Mean Green's first year in Conference USA. Well, so far so good as they are 3-0 at home while winning by an average of 23 points and averaging over 500 yards of offense. Yes that may be skewed by an easy win over Idaho, but UNT also upset Ball State and dominated Middle Tennessee while outgaining them by 211 yards. This should be the toughest conference game so far for both teams, and Rice is a perfect 4-0 in C-USA. However, Owls have a one-dimensional rushing offense going up against a UNT rushing defense ranked 21st in the country, and the UNT defense has allowed fewer yards than the Rice defense overall with that disparity being much bigger when looking at home/away splits.
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  2. 10-31-13 06:38 AM #2
    JabooFootball
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    I like it LT. Adding it to my plays.
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  3. 10-31-13 06:45 AM #3
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by JabooFootball View Post
    I like it LT. Adding it to my plays.
    Let's call this the Memphis Redemption.
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  4. 10-31-13 06:46 AM #4
    astro61200
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    UNT was free money last week.. not so sure this week. I see easier games on the schedule for Thursday.

    Idaho and MTSU aren't much competition.. Ball State is good but if you have a +4 turnover differential for a game you should win by more than 7

    Rice just got Ross back as well, he was out for 2 weeks (essentially 3).. If the Mean Green can force turnovers they'll cover but these 2 teams look very evenly matched so I'm staying away.. If anything I'd take the points or the over but good luck
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  5. 10-31-13 06:48 AM #5
    dv_rasnake
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    I been all over this for a while now lets cash it
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  6. 10-31-13 06:49 AM #6
    JabooFootball
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Let's call this the Memphis Redemption.
    stayed away from that. Red Sox and GS/LAL over bailed me out of an otherwise abysmal night two of nba action. Nice to have a daily grind again though.
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  7. 10-31-13 06:56 AM #7
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by JabooFootball View Post
    stayed away from that. Red Sox and GS/LAL over bailed me out of an otherwise abysmal night two of nba action. Nice to have a daily grind again though.
    Yeah I split my 4 NBA plays but lost with Memphis and the Cardinals.
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  8. 10-31-13 07:02 AM #8
    BIGDAY
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    Beat me to it. This is my POUND PLAY of the day!

    Wqs going to start a thread but figure this one will do.

    Lets cash!
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  9. 10-31-13 07:33 AM #9
    billysink
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    Shit, my notes have the Mean Green giving up 5.3 YPC at home vs only 3.4 away.

    Quick game check shows Idaho, MTSU and Ball State backs with huge YPC averages at North Texas.

    http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=332570249

    http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=332430249

    http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=332850249

    Not saying you are not on the right side here but the line of reasoning has little depth. I don't see anything to indicate that Rice may have to play outside their comfort zone. Rice pass defense is not bad either, against a pretty tough offensive SOS they still rank 40th in opponent team passing efficiency.

    Pass here don't see much.

    Good luck all with whatever you have tonight!
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  10. 10-31-13 08:10 AM #10
    booksbroker
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    I going tail you this 1 LT. North texas -3.5 2u.
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  11. 10-31-13 08:28 AM #11
    ApricotSinner32
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    LT keep those fades coming
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  12. 10-31-13 08:52 AM #12
    PorkChop
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    Reminds me of the Memphis game last night. You guys are reading too much into these games. Cincin was downright the better team last night, and tonight Rice is the better team. Don;t care about any of those numbers. Owls on the road win straight up.
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  13. 10-31-13 08:55 AM #13
    superbowl3056
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    This is looking like another LT fade. North Texas might win this game but not by 4. I'm taking Rice and the points. LT when will you stop picking losers? First the Bulls then memphis now this...
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  14. 10-31-13 09:07 AM #14
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Shit, my notes have the Mean Green giving up 5.3 YPC at home vs only 3.4 away.

    Quick game check shows Idaho, MTSU and Ball State backs with huge YPC averages at North Texas.

    http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=332570249

    http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=332430249

    http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=332850249

    Not saying you are not on the right side here but the line of reasoning has little depth. I don't see anything to indicate that Rice may have to play outside their comfort zone. Rice pass defense is not bad either, against a pretty tough offensive SOS they still rank 40th in opponent team passing efficiency.

    Pass here don't see much.

    Good luck all with whatever you have tonight!
    There is really no reason for a team to be that much better on the road than at home, so that is probably just a short-term anomaly that should correct itself. And besides, look closer at those boxscores. Ball State had a 77 yard TD run to skew the average and was shut out in the second half. MTSU averaged 5.1 YPC, but that was a blowout win for UNT so they were probably playing a soft defense against the run. And Idaho was held in check (3.9).
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  15. 10-31-13 09:10 AM #15
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by superbowl3056 View Post
    This is looking like another LT fade. North Texas might win this game but not by 4. I'm taking Rice and the points. LT when will you stop picking losers? First the Bulls then memphis now this...
    Bulls? I am on the Bulls tonight but was not on them opening night. And you conveniently ignored the easy Monday Night Football winner, and my entire NFL season in general.
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  16. 10-31-13 09:47 AM #16
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    There is really no reason for a team to be that much better on the road than at home, so that is probably just a short-term anomaly that should correct itself. And besides, look closer at those boxscores. Ball State had a 77 yard TD run to skew the average and was shut out in the second half. MTSU averaged 5.1 YPC, but that was a blowout win for UNT so they were probably playing a soft defense against the run. And Idaho was held in check (3.9).
    Why would you discount a 77 yd touchdown run in an assessment of ability to stop the run? Banks averaged over 6 without the run. If you are going to dissect a box score in that fashion to give your theory some back, then you can discount the QB rush stats from the Idaho game and note that the starting backs averaged a healthy 7 plus. MTSU rushed 4 times in the second half of that game for over 10 yds a carry.

    Fact is that 21st against the rush is a phony stat. Total yards stats always are. They are no way indicative of a teams ability to defense a running game. 5.3 YPC at home over 90 attempts against that level of cpetition is what it is.
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  17. 10-31-13 10:02 AM #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    5.3 YPC at home over 90 attempts against that level of cpetition is what it is.
    And so is a far more respectable 4.0 YPC over 249 carries overall, which I think is more relevant than a three-game home split.
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  18. 10-31-13 10:13 AM #18
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    And so is a far more respectable 4.0 YPC over 249 carries overall, which I think is more relevant than a three-game home split.
    Now we are getting somewhere. That YPC ranks 58th. Against a less than stellar bunch of run offenses. Nothing to indicate Rice can't run here.
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  19. 10-31-13 10:16 AM #19
    Hot Jerry
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    AGREE - N. TEXAS gets the W and will cover !!
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  20. 10-31-13 10:27 AM #20
    sweep
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    over 53 for half a hundred here
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  21. 10-31-13 10:27 AM #21
    LT Profits
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    As an FYI, per Football Outsiders, the North Texas defense ranks a very respectable 34th in efficiency, the Rice offense ranks 68th.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef2013
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  22. 10-31-13 10:29 AM #22
    innovation
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    Me likey....

    Rice defense is allowing 94.74% red zone scoring on the road......North texas 60% at home

    NT has a +1.7 turnover differential at home... Rice +0.4 on the road

    NT time of possession 59% at home

    Do the math


    Fewer possessions + fewer red zone conversions + turn over discrepancy = North Texas wins and most likely covers.
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  23. 10-31-13 10:55 AM #23
    billysink
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    big move to 3 dry.

    I don't see that.

    Lot of Rice paper today.
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  24. 10-31-13 11:02 AM #24
    GChild
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    I can't remember the last time I look at one of your post and you won?
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  25. 10-31-13 11:03 AM #25
    thetrinity
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    he became employed by sbr and cant buy a win go figure
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  26. 10-31-13 11:03 AM #26
    superbowl3056
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    As an FYI, per Football Outsiders, the North Texas defense ranks a very respectable 34th in efficiency, the Rice offense ranks 68th.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef2013
    How did this work out for you last night with the "top 15" Memphis defense?
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  27. 10-31-13 11:04 AM #27
    GChild
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    Not being mean I just feel your off par on your picks brother hope you win tho...
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  28. 10-31-13 11:05 AM #28
    GChild
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    Quote Originally Posted by thetrinity View Post
    he became employed by sbr and cant buy a win go figure
    That's why I don't listen to these guys usually go against them like Lang
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  29. 10-31-13 11:37 AM #29
    sweep
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    Anyone see the Rice TT posted? Not up at DSI or Blovada
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  30. 10-31-13 11:41 AM #30
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by GChild View Post
    I can't remember the last time I look at one of your post and you won?
    Quote Originally Posted by thetrinity View Post
    he became employed by sbr and cant buy a win go figure
    Quote Originally Posted by superbowl3056 View Post

    How did this work out for you last night with the "top 15" Memphis defense?
    And what about the 60% NFL Winners So Far?
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: sweep
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  31. 10-31-13 12:40 PM #31
    dirtycash66
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    why is the line dropping? its mow -3
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  32. 10-31-13 12:43 PM #32
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by dirtycash66 View Post
    why is the line dropping? its mow -3
    -2.5 at some shops.
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  33. 10-31-13 12:49 PM #33
    BigdaddyQH
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    The line has dropped to 3, but the opener was 2 1/2, so this is just a correction. No big deal. I cannot believe all of the money that went on Memphis last night. That had to be the easiest game to pick on a weekday so far this season. Cincinnati was obviously the better team. You guys love to try and disect every game. This is why the vast majority of you have a losing record. Try using common sense once in a while. When team A is the obvious choice, do not wager on team B. This game is a pass for me, but I would certainly fade North Texas instead of taking them if I were forced to wager.
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  34. 10-31-13 12:56 PM #34
    sweep
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    Quote Originally Posted by sweep View Post
    Anyone see the Rice TT posted? Not up at DSI or Blovada
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  35. 10-31-13 02:36 PM #35
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by sweep View Post
    Anyone see the Rice TT posted? Not up at DSI or Blovada
    25 at 5 Dimes
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