[Ari Gold]

Everyone is on Clemson and it looks too good to be true. I used to book a few years ago and I swear everytime everyone was on a huge favorite, somehow someway the home dog covered. These Thursday and Friday night games are wacky and Vegas will have the home dog...

Haven't decided who I am playing yet but it is not a bad idea to have the home dog on Thursday night and be playing along with the books.

[flocko76]

How is nc states defense? Might take the over.

[Ho Le Fuk]

got clemson -4 as the first leg of my teaser

[Big Bear]

b/c we are squares

[daneblazer]

Bigger rivalry game for NC State than Clemson. Clemson got boat raced the last time they played in Raleigh and came in as a 2 TD favorite. I don't think NCSU can beat Clemmons, but they can certainly cover.

[frogsrangers]

Clemson is a square play but NC State has underwhelmed so far this year. Louisiana Tech is horrible and they needed heroics to beat Richmond

[Joe Dogs]

Revenge.NC State got beat by Clemson last year 62-48.NC State home getting +14,now 13.5 in most shops.Gonna throw a little something,something on NC State.Going to hold off and see if books show 14 again.

[etothep]

Preface: I'm an NC State alum


2011 game (upset):
- Boyd playing in one of his first conference road games
- Clemson had their real rivals on deck the following week (South Carolina)
- NC State had a better QB (Glennon), better return game (TJ Graham) & better defense

2012 game (covered):
- NC State had a better QB (5th year senior Mike Glennon) who put up 500 yards & 5 TDs just to keep them within 2 touchdowns (324 of those yards went to Palmer & Carter, neither of whom are still on the team)
- Clemson again had their rivals up next on the schedule (remember, State was up 24-13 at one point)
- State gave up 62 points in the first 3 quarters, Clemson called off the dogs & started working the clock or they would've put up 70+

2013 game:
- Boyd is now the senior QB
- Clemson has Syracuse on the schedule for next week, no look ahead/trap game factor
- Pete Thomas is NC State's backup QB (the starter broke his foot in the first quarter of the La Tech game)
- Pete Thomas has 0 TD & 3 INT in 7+ quarters of action against La Tech & Richmond (NC State outscored those 2 "powerhouses" by a combined 14 points while having Thomas at QB)
- Thomas was a transfer from Colorado St (who came in under former NC State coach Tom O'Brien). He posted more INTs than TDs in 2 years at CSU as well, and barely 6.5 YPA
- Thomas (a 2 year starter at Colorado St) was beat out for the starting gig by a WR


Thursday night primetime game, home dog, against a division foe (technically a rival, but it's really more of a engineering academics rivalry than a sports one to be honest)....I get that the initial lean is to take that home dog

After having seen Pete Thomas play QB for 7+ quarters due to Mitchell's injury, I'm skeptical on his ability to keep it close against Boyd, Watkins & company

If NC State covers, then I have to believe it's due to some special teams &/or defensive scores or something like Boyd getting injured or having the worst game of his life. Just don't think we have the talent to match up well anywhere (State's biggest asset is having an accurate, strong legged kicker)

Yes, NC State has pulled off upsets of a top 10 team each of the past 3 seasons, but the QBs over that span were Mike Glennon & Russell Wilson (no offense to Thomas, but he's simply not in their league). NC State's defenses were also more aggressive & more talented on those teams (notice the scores on those upsets, Under hit on all 3)



TL;DR - I don't see State as having the kind of defense that can slow down Clemson or having the offense to hang with them in a shootout

[billysink]

Preface: I'm an NC State alum


2011 game (upset):
- Boyd playing in one of his first conference road games
- Clemson had their real rivals on deck the following week (South Carolina)
- NC State had a better QB (Glennon), better return game (TJ Graham) & better defense

2012 game (covered):
- NC State had a better QB (5th year senior Mike Glennon) who put up 500 yards & 5 TDs just to keep them within 2 touchdowns (324 of those yards went to Palmer & Carter, neither of whom are still on the team)
- Clemson again had their rivals up next on the schedule (remember, State was up 24-13 at one point)
- State gave up 62 points in the first 3 quarters, Clemson called off the dogs & started working the clock or they would've put up 70+

2013 game:
- Boyd is now the senior QB
- Clemson has Syracuse on the schedule for next week, no look ahead/trap game factor
- Pete Thomas is NC State's backup QB (the starter broke his foot in the first quarter of the La Tech game)
- Pete Thomas has 0 TD & 3 INT in 7+ quarters of action against La Tech & Richmond (NC State outscored those 2 "powerhouses" by a combined 14 points while having Thomas at QB)
- Thomas was a transfer from Colorado St (who came in under former NC State coach Tom O'Brien). He posted more INTs than TDs in 2 years at CSU as well, and barely 6.5 YPA
- Thomas (a 2 year starter at Colorado St) was beat out for the starting gig by a WR


Thursday night primetime game, home dog, against a division foe (technically a rival, but it's really more of a engineering academics rivalry than a sports one to be honest)....I get that the initial lean is to take that home dog

After having seen Pete Thomas play QB for 7+ quarters due to Mitchell's injury, I'm skeptical on his ability to keep it close against Boyd, Watkins & company

If NC State covers, then I have to believe it's due to some special teams &/or defensive scores or something like Boyd getting injured or having the worst game of his life. Just don't think we have the talent to match up well anywhere (State's biggest asset is having an accurate, strong legged kicker)

Yes, NC State has pulled off upsets of a top 10 team each of the past 3 seasons, but the QBs over that span were Mike Glennon & Russell Wilson (no offense to Thomas, but he's simply not in their league). NC State's defenses were also more aggressive & more talented on those teams (notice the scores on those upsets, Under hit on all 3)



TL;DR - I don't see State as having the kind of defense that can slow down Clemson or having the offense to hang with them in a shootout

Excellent post. Real nice job of breaking this down.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

why did you stop booking?

[etothep]

Preface: I'm an NC State alum


2011 game (upset):
- Boyd playing in one of his first conference road games
- Clemson had their real rivals on deck the following week (South Carolina)
- NC State had a better QB (Glennon), better return game (TJ Graham) & better defense

2012 game (covered):
- NC State had a better QB (5th year senior Mike Glennon) who put up 500 yards & 5 TDs just to keep them within 2 touchdowns (324 of those yards went to Palmer & Carter, neither of whom are still on the team)
- Clemson again had their rivals up next on the schedule (remember, State was up 24-13 at one point)
- State gave up 62 points in the first 3 quarters, Clemson called off the dogs & started working the clock or they would've put up 70+

2013 game:
- Boyd is now the senior QB
- Clemson has Syracuse on the schedule for next week, no look ahead/trap game factor
- Pete Thomas is NC State's backup QB (the starter broke his foot in the first quarter of the La Tech game)
- Pete Thomas has 0 TD & 3 INT in 7+ quarters of action against La Tech & Richmond (NC State outscored those 2 "powerhouses" by a combined 14 points while having Thomas at QB)
- Thomas was a transfer from Colorado St (who came in under former NC State coach Tom O'Brien). He posted more INTs than TDs in 2 years at CSU as well, and barely 6.5 YPA
- Thomas (a 2 year starter at Colorado St) was beat out for the starting gig by a WR


Thursday night primetime game, home dog, against a division foe (technically a rival, but it's really more of a engineering academics rivalry than a sports one to be honest)....I get that the initial lean is to take that home dog

After having seen Pete Thomas play QB for 7+ quarters due to Mitchell's injury, I'm skeptical on his ability to keep it close against Boyd, Watkins & company

If NC State covers, then I have to believe it's due to some special teams &/or defensive scores or something like Boyd getting injured or having the worst game of his life. Just don't think we have the talent to match up well anywhere (State's biggest asset is having an accurate, strong legged kicker)

Yes, NC State has pulled off upsets of a top 10 team each of the past 3 seasons, but the QBs over that span were Mike Glennon & Russell Wilson (no offense to Thomas, but he's simply not in their league). NC State's defenses were also more aggressive & more talented on those teams (notice the scores on those upsets, Under hit on all 3)



TL;DR - I don't see State as having the kind of defense that can slow down Clemson or having the offense to hang with them in a shootout

For what it's worth, my fellow alumni who gamble are mostly on the under on this one with a few on Clemson. I've yet to hear any of them put their $ on NC State to cover (watching Pete Thomas QB a team will have that effect)