1. #1
    Mr KLC
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    After Much Strain And Meditation, I've Made This Pick

    Cubs/Cards Over 8 -105

    Looking at the stats, Joe Kelly is the luckiest pitcher on the face of the Earth. In the last month, his ERA is 0.78, but his xFIP is 4.77. Unreal. The guy's LOB% in his last 4 starts is 93.6%. What really gets me is Kelly averages less than 5 strikeouts per 9, which means he doesn't get out of innings with his arm. I know the Cubs aren't offensive specialists, but something has to give sooner or later. Both bullpens are nothing to write home about lately, and have both been used quite a bit in this series, so I'm taking the over.
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  2. #2
    billysink
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    Almost half of Kelley's pitches are sinkerballs. Guy just a groundball machine. XFIP stats no good for these guys unless they show sinkerball getting up in zone and regressive differential between fastball and sinker slope.

    Fastball and sinker have kept their separation over last several starts.

    Jackson is a mess.

  3. #3
    Mr KLC
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    Jackson is definitely showing how much of a mess he is right now. At the very least, I'm hoping Kelly does his customary less than 6 innings, so they can get to the Cardinal bullpen.
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  4. #4
    Down_Goes Bookie
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    Great analysis KLC. That gap is unreal for sure. GL on this one.

  5. #5
    Mr KLC
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    Kelly gave me 4 runs, and we have ourselves a winner!!!!!

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  6. #6
    greenhippo
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  7. #7
    billysink
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    2 errors and a groundout and infield single. Cards d sux today.

    Good hit K

  8. #8
    Russian Rocket
    Kleptoman
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    congrats on a good pick

  9. #9
    Jefferey13
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    Nicely done KLC. Always feels good to get a total bet done before the 7th.

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