1. #1
    ChalkyDog
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    Is TAMU the main fade going into NCAAFB season?

    Team is going to be ridiculously overhyped and public.

    Manziel is looking like a kid setup for the ultimate sophomore slump.

  2. #2
    frogsrangers
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    Depends on what you mean by fade.

    The recipe is there for them to have a letdown season. However, 10-2 would be a letdown season for this team.

    Look at their schedule. Non conference is a joke, 4 weak teams all at home. 4 easy wins.

    In conference, they play Vanderbilt and Missouri from the East. Should be 2 easy wins. Skip the Big 3 teams from the East.

    Auburn/Arkansas are probably another couple of seasons away. Mississippi State will be horrible this year. So basically A&M is guaranteed 9 wins this year.

    Ole Miss is a big wild card. They almost beat the Aggies last year, as their moron coach called a QB draw on 4th and inches from the shotgun to get the 1st down they needed to ice the game. Of course it got stuffed and A&M got the ball and won. Also Ole Miss gets them at home again. But will Ole Miss live up to their hype? A&M should win this game but its one of the 3 non-shoe in games.

    That means A&M's season is pretty much a 2 game season, at home against Bama and at LSU. I expect them to lose at home against Alabama. Once Saban made adjustments last year, he had A&M figured out. They should have won that game but McCarron threw that dumb intereception and the Alabama player jumped offsides on the punt when they were about to get the ball back. Bama beat themselves that game, I don't see Saban losing to A&M in a revenge game.

    At LSU is another wild card. No one really knows what to expect from them this year. They have talent, but will be a bit rusty and undeveloped. Offense is a major question. LSU did beat A&M last year and does have the athletes to contain the A&M offense, but if LSU has a bad offense this year who knows.

    With all of that being said, a 10-2 season with losses to Alabama and LSU will be a disappointment for the Aggies because they lost the only 2 games on the schedule where they can make a statement. In fact, with the easy schedule and with the Heisman winner returning, anything but a SEC Title Game appearance will be a major letdown for A&M.

    So it depends on what you mean by fade. I see 9 automatic wins for A&M this year, 2 wild cards in LSU/Ole Miss, and a 1-in-3 chance of winning at home against Alabama. Does fade mean pick against them in those 3 non-gimme games? Or pick them to lose one of those 9 automatic games?

  3. #3
    Louisvillekid1
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    I agree, but way to much respect for Sumlin to jump ship just yet.

  4. #4
    frogsrangers
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    By the way my pick to fade this year is Oklahoma. I think they will find out that Blake Bell is not their answer at QB the hard way. Without a good passing QB their offense will not work and they will not have a good season. They will have a season like they had in 2005 or 2009 where they only win 8 games or so. I see them losing to Notre Dame, Texas, Baylor, and Oklahoma State with TCU and Kansas State being toss ups.

  5. #5
    BuddyBear
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    Quote Originally Posted by frogsrangers View Post

    So it depends on what you mean by fade. I see 9 automatic wins for A&M this year, 2 wild cards in LSU/Ole Miss, and a 1-in-3 chance of winning at home against Alabama. Does fade mean pick against them in those 3 non-gimme games? Or pick them to lose one of those 9 automatic games?
    So let me get this straight, you expect TXAM to be +300 at home when they play Alabama?

  6. #6
    Huckleberry Pig
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    I definitely think A&M will be overhyped. Think there will be some good opportunities to get some large point spreads against teams that will keep it closer than most think. They struggled on D last year and teams with a high tempo O gave them fits. Remember, they BARELY beat Louisiana Tech and Ole Miss. If Ole Miss is able to maintain the Offense they had last year, I see them giving A&M fits. A&M seems to do better against offenses like Alabama and LSU than they do the high tempo ones.

    I will be very interested to see how their O-line does, losing two of their starters is going to hurt big time but keeping their stud C (I think) should help. Still, I expect to see more pressure getting to Johnny Football this year than last season. He handled the pressure he got last year very well, we will see if he can keep it up or if the added amount of pressure will lead to more mistakes. Also remember, no one had much film on this kid last year. Very tough to game-plan against. They have a years worth of film now and will be better prepared for him.

    I think A&M wins 9-10 like Rangers said, but I think the opportunity to make some $ will be taking opponents to cover the spread. Think they may be overrated by a few points several times this season.

    Also think Arkansas will be a good team to pick to cover the spread several times this season as they will be sold short after last year. Got some good talent on the Arkansas side, just had a trainwreck of a coach. This prediction may be a year off though since they have a new QB/RB.
    Last edited by Huckleberry Pig; 07-12-13 at 10:49 AM.

  7. #7
    Big Bear
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    My main fade will be the Georgia Bulldawgs! i cant remember the last time a team was this overrated going into a season

  8. #8
    Big Bear
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    Clemson and South Carolina will both beat Georgia

  9. #9
    ChalkyDog
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    Frogs, really good shit, seriously.

    By fade, I mean ATS.

    I have to believe some books if not all of them, will have such massive spreads, so to cash in on the public money that will be stacking up on TAMU's side.

    The thought came to me after watching the downward spiral that is Manziel since he won the Heisman. Guys a douche. Public love's douches.

  10. #10
    ChalkyDog
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    My main fade will be the Georgia Bulldawgs! i cant remember the last time a team was this overrated going into a season
    I have a weird thing for Georgia. They made me so much money when I was just starting out. I still have the urge to bet them "just because".
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  11. #11
    Big Bear
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    Manziel may be a douche but he is the best QB in college football.

  12. #12
    ChalkyDog
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Manziel may be a douche but he is the best QB in college football.
    He absolutely was.

    I am still not sold that he can come anywhere near maintaining that success.

    But, L'Ville did bring up a salient point. I think Sumlin has the ability keep Johnny on track.

  13. #13
    Huckleberry Pig
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Manziel may be a douche but he is the best QB in college football.
    100% agree with you, but he also had a top 5 O-line in the country. That won't be the case this year. I think he makes a few more mistakes this time around.

  14. #14
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Huckleberry Pig View Post
    100% agree with you, but he also had a top 5 O-line in the country. That won't be the case this year. I think he makes a few more mistakes this time around.
    yeah bama probably gonna get revenge.

  15. #15
    Louisvillekid1
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Manziel may be a douche but he is the best QB in college football.
    Yeah , the young kid in my avy has something to say about that.

  16. #16
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChalkyDog View Post
    Team is going to be ridiculously overhyped and public.

    Manziel is looking like a kid setup for the ultimate sophomore slump.
    I would study the lines on their games and bet accordingly. If the books make a mistake punish them.

  17. #17
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Yeah , the young kid in my avy has something to say about that.
    louisville don't play any real competition so whatever stats he produces don't really count.

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    Date Opponent / Event Location Time / Result
    09/01/13 vs. OHIO PAPA JOHN'S CARDINAL STADIUM 3:30 p.m. ET
    09/07/13 vs. EASTERN KENTUCKY PAPA JOHN'S CARDINAL STADIUM 12:00 p.m. ET
    09/14/13 at Kentucky Lexington, Ky. TBA
    09/21/13 vs. FIU PAPA JOHN'S CARDINAL STADIUM 12:00 p.m. ET
    10/05/13 at Temple # Philadelphia, Pa. TBA
    10/10/13 vs. RUTGERS # PAPA JOHN'S CARDINAL STADIUM TBA
    10/18/13 vs. UCF # PAPA JOHN'S CARDINAL STADIUM TBA
    10/26/13 at USF # Tampa, Fla. TBA
    11/08/13 at Connecticut # East Hartford, Conn. TBA
    11/16/13 vs. HOUSTON # PAPA JOHN'S CARDINAL STADIUM TBA
    11/23/13 vs. MEMPHIS # PAPA JOHN'S CARDINAL STADIUM TBA
    12/05/13 at Cincinnati # Cincinnati, Ohio 7:30 p.m. ET

  18. #18
    mbs4
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuddyBear View Post
    So let me get this straight, you expect TXAM to be +300 at home when they play Alabama?
    Math is hard.

  19. #19
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by mbs4 View Post
    Math is hard.
    when did i say that ? the line is out and its Alabama -6.5 not sure about the ML

  20. #20
    nvrlose37
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    Quote Originally Posted by frogsrangers View Post
    By the way my pick to fade this year is Oklahoma. I think they will find out that Blake Bell is not their answer at QB the hard way. Without a good passing QB their offense will not work and they will not have a good season. They will have a season like they had in 2005 or 2009 where they only win 8 games or so. I see them losing to Notre Dame, Texas, Baylor, and Oklahoma State with TCU and Kansas State being toss ups.
    So quickly we forget about Tebow. Bell will be a stud I feel given his rush ability, the pass will follow.

    Real fade is Lville. They had an easy schedule last year and still shouldve lost 3. One big win against the worst Florida performance of the year and everyone is on them to run the table. Im not buying into Teddy Bridgewater or the rest of them.

  21. #21
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by nvrlose37 View Post
    So quickly we forget about Tebow. Bell will be a stud I feel given his rush ability, the pass will follow.

    Real fade is Lville. They had an easy schedule last year and still shouldve lost 3. One big win against the worst Florida performance of the year and everyone is on them to run the table. Im not buying into Teddy Bridgewater or the rest of them.
    Look at that schedule. Louisville is going undefeated but there is ABSOLUTELY no way in hell they get to play for the Title even if they go undefeated.

    They would take a 2 loss SEC champion over an undefeated Louisville

  22. #22
    ChalkyDog
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Yeah , the young kid in my avy has something to say about that.
    It's no hate towards the kid, as I have only seen him in a very limited role.

    As in, I only saw him vs. UCONN and Cincy. And both times I came away thinking he was god awful. Made some good to great plays, in both games, but there were more plays where you wondered why the coach is playing him.

  23. #23
    mik5058
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Look at that schedule. Louisville is going undefeated but there is ABSOLUTELY no way in hell they get to play for the Title even if they go undefeated.

    They would take a 2 loss SEC champion over an undefeated Louisville
    I really can't see the SEC champion having two losses but there is no way that team would get in over an undefeated team. We won't have to worry about though as Louisville won't go undefeated. There's no way they're going to win all of those road games. As someone above mentioned, we shouldn't let one performance against an uninspired Florida team cloud our judgment.

  24. #24
    mik5058
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    Also, I don't think Teddy Bridgewater is the best college quarterback, but I do think he's the best NFL quarterback prospect. Just my opinion.

  25. #25
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by mik5058 View Post
    I really can't see the SEC champion having two losses but there is no way that team would get in over an undefeated team. We won't have to worry about though as Louisville won't go undefeated. There's no way they're going to win all of those road games. As someone above mentioned, we shouldn't let one performance against an uninspired Florida team cloud our judgment.
    I had Florida ML as the last leg of a parlay for WAY too much money.

    That game taught me the lesson to quit doing ML parlays for big money on big favorites....

    Florida clearly didnt give 2 fukks about that game.

    Which was surprising to me that a team would not be excited to play in a BCS bowl game.

  26. #26
    El Nino
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    Notre Dame

  27. #27
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    Notre Dame
    oh yeah and as a notre dame hater i will love seeing them suck this year

  28. #28
    Louisvillekid1
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    Teddy will easily be the #1 drafted QB if he comes out... top 5 overall lock...

    It's not even debatable...

  29. #29
    Louisvillekid1
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    Love all the Louisville hate, we like it like that...

  30. #30
    BigdaddyQH
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    First, it does not matter what A&M does S/U. You are talking about ATS, and they will be toast. Manziel can't wait to get off the team, and the team can't wait to get rid of him. That adds up to an injury ridden season. Just watch. As far as some lines go, Arkansas gets 17 at home against A&M. Misissippi gets 4 at home against A&M. Auburn goes to A&M and gets 24. Vandy goes to A&M and gets 16. LSU is -1 at home agains A&M. Missouri gets 13 at home against A&M. Given a choice to taking or fading A&M is all of those games, I'm fading.

  31. #31
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Teddy will easily be the #1 drafted QB if he comes out... top 5 overall lock...

    It's not even debatable...
    I'm a big Teddy fan.

  32. #32
    suicidekings
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    I think it's far more dangerous in becoming overconfident that they should be faded because of inflated lines. Maybe a few of the tougher teams hang within the number, but the Aggies will be out to prove themselves this year as more than a 2012 fluke. For them, that means running up scores, especially in the first half of games.

  33. #33
    frogsrangers
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    I think it's far more dangerous in becoming overconfident that they should be faded because of inflated lines. Maybe a few of the tougher teams hang within the number, but the Aggies will be out to prove themselves this year as more than a 2012 fluke. For them, that means running up scores, especially in the first half of games.
    I honestly think there is value on fading A&M against the spread in their non conference games. Though none of their 4 non conference games are against difficult teams, they are not bottom of the barrel teams like New Mexico State or Akron either. SMU could be good, Rice won a bowl last year, Sam Houston State is one of the best FCS teams and is probably better than 1/3 of FBS and UTEP has talent every year(but no coaching).

    I think people tend to forget that A&M's defense is not that good, and they lost some key guys from last year especially Damontre Moore. I think their defensive numbers were better than what they should of been, because A&M's offense would be so good and they would get ahead so quick that other teams had to get out of their offensive game plans early and start forcing things on offense to try to keep up. Alabama was an example of this, A&M got up 21-0 early on them and they had to start playing catch up. But once Bama got back in their game plan they started to move the ball. Other teams didn't do this. But A&M's defense is not that good.

    I can see SMU and Rice putting up points on A&M. I know SMU only scored 3 on the Aggies last year but give Garrett Gilbert a break, it was only his 2nd game in the run-n-shoot offense. He improved by a lot as the year went on and should be more comfortable this year in that role. Also, Rice had a good offense last year. Their defense was horrible, but offensively they return the weapons to move the ball on a team like A&M. I see the spread for A&M vs. SMU/Rice in the 30s, and both teams have good enough offenses to be able to put points on the board and cover.

    Sam Houston also put points on the board against A&M last year. I don't know what they are returning this year from their FCS runner up squad last year though. UTEP had a pretty bad offense last year, but they do get some recruiting outcasts that are talented who are passed up by the bigger Texas schools. They also get a lot of transfers. UTEP has potential but never seems to reach it.

    I would look into playing SMU/Rice to cover against A&M this year.

  34. #34
    daneblazer
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    Texas A&M redshirt sophomore QB Johnny Manziel was sent home from the Manning Passing Academy, according to Yard Barker.

    The report states Archie Manning sent Manziel home for a number of reasons. The Aggie quarterback apparently showed up late on Saturday after spending "a night on the town" on Friday. "Camp officials told local media that Manziel 'is sick' and was no longer at the camp," the report states. "But our source claims he was kicked out." The site updated their original post, adding Manziel missed multiple meetings on Saturday morning without informing anyone of his absence. "Most people at the camp assume he simply slept through them."

  35. #35
    nvrlose37
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    I think it's far more dangerous in becoming overconfident that they should be faded because of inflated lines. Maybe a few of the tougher teams hang within the number, but the Aggies will be out to prove themselves this year as more than a 2012 fluke. For them, that means running up scores, especially in the first half of games.
    I believe they were undefeated on 1st half lines for two years before the OU bowl game. Worth a shot to parlay every single first half line.

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