1. 07-07-13 10:52 PM #1
    Big Bear
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    Locke vs Colon Who YOU got??

    Check in Benny Bigs, Coiner, Banker and the crew...
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  2. 07-07-13 11:02 PM #2
    WvGambler
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    I think this game is simple. It pains me to say so, but the Bucs are AWFUL in first games of a series. They should still take the series, but lose game 1. It's what they do.
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  3. 07-07-13 11:05 PM #3
    Big Bear
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    it should be low scoring
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  4. 07-08-13 05:48 AM #4
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    it should be low scoring
    if i get a half way decent ump ill be on either ov 7.5 at plus or over 7 if total drops a half run which is certainly possible.. this a ace type total and while both may have ace type numbers neither one is in fact that...
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  5. 07-08-13 07:00 AM #5
    Chi_archie
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    yeah both are fade worthy due to their over-due-ness for major regression.

    Over and Oakland here
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  6. 07-08-13 07:04 AM #6
    El Nino
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    Oaktown for this guey.
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  7. 07-08-13 07:15 AM #7
    Big Bear
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    Colon at even money has a nice ring to it...

    Locke has amazing stuff but the Pirates suck at hitting good pitchers ... honestly i dont see how the Pirates score against Colon
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  8. 07-08-13 07:37 AM #8
    Chi_archie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Colon at even money has a nice ring to it...

    Locke has amazing stuff but the Pirates suck at hitting good pitchers ... honestly i dont see how the Pirates score against Colon
    plus they don't do well vs Pitchers they've never really faced, whether be a minor league call up or vet.

    Only Inge, Martin, and Snider have ever faced him, for a total of 36 ABS

    Clint Hurdle could hit better than Inge right now
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  9. 07-08-13 07:37 AM #9
    LT Profits
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    Call this the Regression Bowl as it is two pitchers that will go downhill after the All-Star break. And the fact that they are actually in the All-Star Game along with Corbin should make all three of them nicely overvalued after the break. As for this game, no clue will most likely pass.
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  10. 07-08-13 07:46 AM #10
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Locke has amazing stuff
    Locke has very average stuff, maybe even below average. He has a relatively low 6.09 strikeouts per nine innings and a very high 3.88 walks per nine innings, helping lead to his rather ugly 4.22 xFIP! That leaves him with the highest negative differential between xFIP and ERA of any pitcher in baseball. And if that is not enough to prove how lucky he has been, consider he is allowing just a .233 BABIP, which is fourth lowest in the majors. That is pure luck as there is no way a pitcher with average stuff can maintain that long-term.
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  11. 07-08-13 07:47 AM #11
    Catchn_Picks
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    right now cappers have been predicting the decline of Colon all season...while I agree that this will happen at some time...Colon is on another planet right now and I found a line of +103 on OAK and took it. Bartolo was already in Pitt so no travel problems for him..bol
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  12. 07-08-13 08:05 AM #12
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Catchn_Picks View Post
    right now cappers have been predicting the decline of Colon all season...while I agree that this will happen at some time...Colon is on another planet right now and I found a line of +103 on OAK and took it. Bartolo was already in Pitt so no travel problems for him..bol
    Colon's peripherals are better than Locke's but they still run well behind his ERA. He should regress too, just not as much as Locke but that doesn't matter.
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  13. 07-08-13 08:39 AM #13
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Locke has amazing stuff
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  14. 07-08-13 08:40 AM #14
    Stallion
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    Under 7.5 -115
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  15. 07-08-13 08:46 AM #15
    Monchito
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    Culon
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  16. 07-08-13 08:46 AM #16
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Locke has very average stuff, maybe even below average. He has a relatively low 6.09 strikeouts per nine innings and a very high 3.88 walks per nine innings, helping lead to his rather ugly 4.22 xFIP! That leaves him with the highest negative differential between xFIP and ERA of any pitcher in baseball. And if that is not enough to prove how lucky he has been, consider he is allowing just a .233 BABIP, which is fourth lowest in the majors. That is pure luck as there is no way a pitcher with average stuff can maintain that long-term.
    haha you sir have alot to learn about baseball.
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  17. 07-08-13 08:49 AM #17
    Big Bear
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    when i say good stuff it does not directly correlate to strikeout/ walk ratio....

    He has a fastball in the low 90's with a ton of movement on it and he has pin point control.

    He also has a very good change-up and breaking ball.
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  18. 07-08-13 08:51 AM #18
    Big Bear
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    Roy oswalt in his 3 starts prior to yesterday had a good strikeout to walk ratio but he also left too many pitches up in the zone.

    Locke is efficient gets a lot of ground balls and rarely makes mistakes with his pitches...
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  19. 07-08-13 08:54 AM #19
    Smoke
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  20. 07-08-13 09:00 AM #20
    Down_Goes Bookie
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    This is one to sit back and enjoy with no dog in the fight. Both Locke and Colon are due for regression -- which one and when? It's a complete toss-up to me.
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  21. 07-08-13 09:00 AM #21
    ThingsFallApart
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    haha you sir have alot to learn about baseball.
    Why is that? You're the guy who called for The Angels to send down Trumbo, Pujols, and Hamilton. Explain how him using advance statistics means he has a lot to learn about baseball?
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  22. 07-08-13 09:07 AM #22
    Smoke
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  23. 07-08-13 09:09 AM #23
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThingsFallApart View Post
    Why is that? You're the guy who called for The Angels to send down Trumbo, Pujols, and Hamilton. Explain how him using advance statistics means he has a lot to learn about baseball?
    advanced stats my ass... nothing advanced about those stats...lol

    I said he has a lot to learn if he cant realize that Locke has great stuff...
    Anybody who has ever played the game can watch Locke pitch and
    appreciate the talent he has.


    And to clarify i said send down Pujols and Hamilton ...

    I never said Trumbo.


    The reason i said send them down is bc all they did with runners
    in scoring position there for awhile was hit into double plays or strike out.


    I'm rooting for the Angels though... i got them 40-1 to win the series
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  24. 07-08-13 09:45 AM #24
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Colon at even money has a nice ring to it...

    Locke has amazing stuff but the Pirates suck at hitting good pitchers ... honestly i dont see how the Pirates score against Colon
    Stop saying that already. No he doesn't.
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  25. 07-08-13 09:48 AM #25
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    I said he has a lot to learn if he cant realize that Locke has great stuff...
    Anybody who has ever played the game can watch Locke pitch and
    appreciate the talent he has.
    Wow.
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  26. 07-08-13 10:10 AM #26
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Stop saying that already. No he doesn't.
    Coin did u ever play baseball?
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  27. 07-08-13 10:21 AM #27
    Reload
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    Locke will get it done - good matchup, but I am going with the Pirates.
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  28. 07-08-13 10:46 AM #28
    kevin101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reload View Post
    Locke will get it done - good matchup, but I am going with the Pirates.

    Agreed.
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  29. 07-08-13 10:49 AM #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Coin did u ever play baseball?
    Pitched into my freshman year of college.

    If Locke has "amazing" stuff or even "great" stuff, then about 80% of pitchers in baseball do as well. Locke is a good pitcher with decent stuff who has been extremely lucky with a lot of favorable matchups so far this year. It doesn't go beyond that. We see this happen every year with a pitcher or two before the ASB.
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  30. 07-08-13 10:53 AM #30
    ThingsFallApart
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Coin did u ever play baseball?
    I don't think Coin played any sports, but that is besides the point.
    Baseball arguments are the most pointless around as its such a stastics game, that every argument comes down to stats vs. advance stats or stats vs. "watching/knowing" baseball.

    Okay you are right they weren't necessarily "advance stats" that LT used, but while a whole bunch of guys here that never played baseball or perhaps any other sport at or above the high school level are using solid arguments backed up by decades old logic in baseball, all youre doing is saying "i KNOW more about it and PLAYED it" as if Billy Beane shut up guys by using what he knew instead of baseball numbers.

    I'm not even going to carry on this argument because it is going nowhere and I don't really care as I'll most likely layoff..BUT don't be THAT GUY in the baseball argument claiming you KNOW more about baseball and that makes you right over stats and history.
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  31. 07-08-13 10:55 AM #31
    No coincidences
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    http://www.baseballanalytics.org/bas...eff-locke.html
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  32. 07-08-13 10:57 AM #32
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThingsFallApart View Post
    I don't think Coin played any sports, but that is besides the point.
    Baseball arguments are the most pointless around as its such a stastics game, that every argument comes down to stats vs. advance stats or stats vs. "watching/knowing" baseball.

    Okay you are right they weren't necessarily "advance stats" that LT used, but while a whole bunch of guys here that never played baseball or perhaps any other sport at or above the high school level are using solid arguments backed up by decades old logic in baseball, all youre doing is saying "i KNOW more about it and PLAYED it" as if Billy Beane shut up guys by using what he knew instead of baseball numbers.

    I'm not even going to carry on this argument because it is going nowhere and I don't really care as I'll most likely layoff..BUT don't be THAT GUY in the baseball argument claiming you KNOW more about baseball and that makes you right over stats and history.
    Typical three-paragraph diatribe from someone who supposedly doesn't care. LOL.

    You are a joke.
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  33. 07-08-13 11:08 AM #33
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    http://www.baseballanalytics.org/bas...eff-locke.html
    well written article indeed. Good read and thanks for sharing.

    Locke does not have swing and miss stuff however he has just enough movement to cause the hitter to not be able barrel up the ball. He also has excellent control.

    The well located fastball is the best pitch in baseball. He is a left handed Greg Maddux if you will.
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  34. 07-08-13 11:10 AM #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    He is a left handed Greg Maddux if you will.
    I give up.
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  35. 07-08-13 11:11 AM #35
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Pitched into my freshman year of college.

    If Locke has "amazing" stuff or even "great" stuff, then about 80% of pitchers in baseball do as well. Locke is a good pitcher with decent stuff who has been extremely lucky with a lot of favorable matchups so far this year. It doesn't go beyond that. We see this happen every year with a pitcher or two before the ASB.
    ofcourse he can only have less success than he has had so far this season.

    and its kinda of a mute point b/c i'm not trying to sell anyone on Locke tonight vs the A's...

    Colon has also been a cash cow for me so i will lay off this one.
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