1. #1
    BOTSLAYER
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    Bet Sizing

    Is it better to Risk to win X or is it better to risk X every time.

    I do not know what the names of these 2 bet styles?

    Does this make no difference?

    My thoughts:

    It makes little difference in games where the odds do not change much such as NBA, NFL, etc

    I think it should make a difference in games where the odds vary considerably such as MLB and Soccer.

    It is my theory that risking the necessary amount to win $X is superior because the worse the odds the more likely to win.

    But as I am writing that it stopped making sense.

  2. #2
    LT Profits
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    Theoretically, you should bet TO WIN your edge. That forces you to bet less on underdogs too, because if you bet say a +200 dog, you should bet 1/2 unit to win one unit, NOT one unit to win two units. (I substituted "unit" for edge % for easier presentation).

  3. #3
    Aussiefalconfan
    Makin' it Hail
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    ^^spot on

  4. #4
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Theoretically, you should bet TO WIN your edge. That forces you to bet less on underdogs too, because if you bet say a +200 dog, you should bet 1/2 unit to win one unit, NOT one unit to win two units. (I substituted "unit" for edge % for easier presentation).
    Thats correct, but I would not be keen on "units"
    Unit in itself is arbitrary.

    In real life "unit" should be equal to BR * Edge on a particular wager and thus will vary all the time since your BR and edge will vary.
    So if your BR is $10000 and you think you have an edge of 2%, your unit on this bet will be $200 and you should bet accordingly to win this unit.
    Lets say you won and your BR now is $10200.
    You assume your edge on your next bet is 1%.
    Now the unit you aim to win is not $200 anymore but $102 and you bet proper amount to win it.

    You do the same calculation prior to every bet, which is not that hard, obviously.

    The hard part is to make sure that your assumption about size of your edge is not a pipe dream.
    But that's the whole other story.

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