1. #1
    SBR Lou
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    Line movement disagrees, but I'm thinking this NFL play is a stone-cold lock

    Don't see too many plays like this, but I'm thinking New England -3.5 is worth a good sized play.

    • The line has dropped from -6.5 to -3.5, which shifts value to New England.
    • I do not believe a rookie QB playing his first division rivalry game is going to be able to handle the different defensive looks Bill Belichick is going to throw at him.
    • The Jets are overvalued here due to their solid outing vs a less than spectacular Texans squad.
    • The Patriots are undervalued due to their pathetic outing vs the Bills.

    The Patriots defense is slightly worse than average, the Jets offense is slightly better than average. The Patriots offense is great, the Jets defense is good.

    The Patriots have the head coach advantage vs the rookie HC Rex Ryan. They've got the skill position advantage on the offensive side of the ball by far, and the Patriots have historically owned the Jets.

    A Jets player was quoted as saying this game would be their Super Bowl. Super Bowl is played in February, this is just another game and the Patriots aren't going to get involved in some media back and forth. However, I'm sure they appreciate the unnecessary bulletin board material.

    This will definitely be my Beat The Prick best bet.

  2. #2
    CashMoney
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    Kerry Rhodes was talking smack. Said the Jets want to embarrass the Pats. I guess the win over the Texans made the Jets feel like the are Super Bowl bound. I'm taking the Pats on the spread and ML.

  3. #3
    MonkeyF0cker
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    So a team playing its Super Bowl vs. a team playing "just another game" gives the advantage to the latter team? Hmm.

    And how does line movement, in one direction or the other, necessitate value for a team at the current spread and/or price?

  4. #4
    BGboothA
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    "rookie HC Rex Ryan"

    I don't know about that, at first glance I loved this game too, but the more I looked at Ryan's history against New England (as Dcoord in Baltimore) I honestly think NYJ moneyline may have some value.

  5. #5
    Rich Boy
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    Pats ML is a lock

  6. #6
    jmp
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    jets are upsetting pats.

  7. #7
    SBR Lou
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    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    So a team playing its Super Bowl vs. a team playing "just another game" gives the advantage to the latter team? Hmm.
    Well, it's not really just another game, I misspoke. It's a division game as I mentioned earlier in the post, and that makes it important to both teams.

    However, publicly stating you will approach this game like the Super Bowl, which were the exact words of Kris Jenkins, is telling. I'm not sure that someone with a position of leadership wants their rookie quarterback buying into that.

    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    And how does line movement, in one direction or the other, necessitate value for a team at the current spread and/or price?
    If the Patriots covered versus the Bills, and executed better on both sides of the ball, the only way you'd get the spread to -3.5 is throwing it in a teaser. I'm exaggerating slightly, I think it would have been about -7.5 though, so grabbing the more experienced, better coached, offensively stacked team here against a team with a rookie quarterback and rookie head coach to win by 4 points is a good scenario.

    The Patriots defense is not what it was, but the Jets aren't the team that's going to expose them.

    By the way, it should have been mentioned that the Patriots absolutely dominated time of possession, first downs etc versus the Bills, Brady just didn't play all that well in the 1st half. I think that he will give a substantially better performance Sunday.

  8. #8
    MonkeyF0cker
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    Perhaps, the spread on this game is moving because the Patriots aren't nearly as explosive as many thought. They were fortunate just to win that game.

  9. #9
    DrStale
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    This one has Patriots game-winning field goal written all over it. Pats by 3, staying away.

  10. #10
    SBR Lou
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    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    Perhaps, the spread on this game is moving because the Patriots aren't nearly as explosive as many thought. They were fortunate just to win that game.
    Well, I think it's evident that is the reason. The "public" is on the Patriots here and clearly some sharp action drove this line down, the Patriots may not be the team they were but they're still worthy of being the favorite to win the division and I do not believe the Jets are going to make the playoffs. Either way, if the Jets can pressure Tom and Sanchez can approach this with a cool head and NOT buy into all this pre-game hype and simply execute efficiently, sure the Jets can make this a game. I'm just banking on all that trash talk turning into hot air Sunday afternoon.

    I'd like to see the Jets do well this year and see Sanchez have a good season, for what it's worth.

  11. #11
    MonkeyF0cker
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    So you're saying your best bet is self-admittedly on a square side? Weird.

  12. #12
    BobHarvey
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    I'm on it with you. GL.

  13. #13
    rm18
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    I like the pats in this spot, personnel wise the offense is as strong as '07 even though they struggled some against the Bills
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  14. #14
    SBR Lou
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    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    So you're saying your best bet is self-admittedly on a square side? Weird.
    I'm saying this wouldn't have been my best bet at -6.5.

    There's no value on the Jets at +3.5.

  15. #15
    MonkeyF0cker
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    Yet, there has to be value on the Patriots if there isn't value on their opponent?

    What should the line be?

  16. #16
    BeatTheJerk
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyLou View Post
    I'm saying this wouldn't have been my best bet at -6.5.

    There's no value on the Jets at +3.5.
    Agreed.

  17. #17
    lakerboy
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    This is a game where you really need to stay far away from don't even pick it in your mind wout money and check the score you will be stunned

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  18. #18
    bobby heenan
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    the patriots defense isnt nearly as bad as some want to make them out to be....the secondary played great....merriweather is about to burst onto the scene in a big way....the d line is still pretty deep and talented....the linebacking corps took a hit with mayo...and there biggest problem is a lack of the pass rush....this defense will play better once the offense starts rolling a little more

    the offense looked outta synch...brady and welker especially...they also have a new play caller...and they dont have the continuity that theyve had in the past....still working some stuff out...i think the defense will work itself out fine once the offense starts rolling and putting some points on the board...they can dictate the pace a little more....im sure bill will have gary guyton well prepared to try and stop leon washington in the wildcat

  19. #19
    eidolon
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    I have it at NE pk to -2.5. So I guess I have to wait. Wish I jumped on the Jets +6(even)
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  20. #20
    alexda[]
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    on the bettracker it says it opened at 6.5 but this was even before pats played the bills which was weird. then when i saw in on actual sites it said 3. was it actually available at 6.5?

  21. #21
    pico
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    all in pats

  22. #22
    ChuteBoxe
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    Hope everyone doesn't get screwed by the hook. If I were to take New England, this would be one of the rare instances where I'd buy the 1/2 point.

  23. #23
    Shortstop
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    I like the Jets plus the points.

  24. #24
    Chi_archie
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    looks good, I think the Pats are alot better than they played on monday.

  25. #25
    HotStreak
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    Belichick has a reputation for making opposing young QB's look like dog shit, and until proven otherwise, the Pats own the Jets.

  26. #26
    BestPlay2day
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    Lot of overreaction after the Patriots should of lost and the Jets smoked the Texans, staying away from this game.

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  27. #27
    SBR Lou
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    Quote Originally Posted by alexda[
    ;2254057]on the bettracker it says it opened at 6.5 but this was even before pats played the bills which was weird. then when i saw in on actual sites it said 3. was it actually available at 6.5?
    Yes sir it opened 6.5 at Pinnacle Sports,

    POINTSPREADS (NEW ENGLAND @ N.Y. (A))
    09/13 20:11 -6 +100 / +6 -108
    09/13 20:27 -6 -104 / +6 -104
    09/14 00:11 -6 +100 / +6 -108
    09/14 00:36 -6 +107 / +6 -116
    09/14 09:20 -6 +102 / +6 -110
    09/15 07:02 -5 -104 / +5 -104
    09/15 15:26 -5 -102 / +5 -106
    09/15 16:45 -5 +103 / +5 -111
    09/15 16:55 -4 +102 / +4 -110
    09/15 17:00 -4 +100 / +4 -108
    09/15 17:30 -4 +102 / +4 -110
    09/15 17:45 -4 -102 / +4 -106
    09/15 17:50 -4 +104 / +4 -113
    09/15 20:56 -3 +100 / +3 -108
    09/15 22:16 -3 -102 / +3 -106
    09/17 10:46 -3 -104 / +3 -104
    09/17 12:26 -3 +102 / +3 -110
    09/17 13:11 -3 +106 / +3 -115
    09/17 13:41 -3 +104 / +3 -113
    09/17 14:01 -3 +106 / +3 -115
    09/17 16:36 -3 +104 / +3 -113

  28. #28
    lakerboy
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    i think the under here would be a wiser call with ryan's defenses always giving the pats a hard time. and of course the jets wont score much

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  29. #29
    pavyracer
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    Line movement is irrelevant. What you need to be looking is how teams played the first week. What have you seen from Patriots team on first game that makes you think they can win let alone cover the spread? All I saw is a team struggling in defense and that was before they lost their best defensive player for year and only won because Buffalo had a fumble. This is a very tough game for Patriots which if they win will be in a shootout.
    Last edited by pavyracer; 09-18-09 at 10:25 AM.

  30. #30
    brooks85
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    The jets beat up on a bad houston team, a team that gave up 20something passing tds and almost 2000rushing yds last year and schaub wasn't exactly healthy last sunday. NE D is nothing special but I definitely expect it to be better than houstons effort. The game will hinge on thomas jones getting hot or not. Trent was only 15/25 against NE last week and sanchez was only 18/33, brady was 39/53.


    Look at these stats for brady his past 2 games against the bills
    39/53 for 378 yds. 441 yards of total offense. - last mondays game - ne scores 25
    31/39 for 373 yds. 510 yards of total offense.- Bradys game from 07- ne scores 56

    only reason bills hung around, was failed 4th down conversions, dropped balls and a bad ref call.

    Now, all 3 of those things are apart of football but I wouldn't count on NE not converting 4n1s and dropping catches.

    Just read tho, welker is still injured and looking slow in practice...
    Last edited by brooks85; 09-18-09 at 10:36 AM.
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  31. #31
    SBR Lou
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    The game the linesmen got wrong: Patriots vs. Jets

    Game Time: Friday, September 18, 2009 12:00 AM ET
    By: CrazyLou

    Linesmen are imperfect people living in an imperfect world. Good luck convincing a linesman they are hanging soft numbers, though. That is akin to a stake through the heart of any old school industry professional.

    The good news for insecure linesmen is that their job is simplified for them. They can follow the lead of big boys like Pinnacle, Olympic, CRIS, and adjust their numbers accordingly.

    If I were a linesman, I would take a stand on this ballgame that pits the New England Patriots (1-0) vs. the N.Y. Jets (1-0), the divisional rivalry game that has all the SBRforum handicapping experts chattering like teenage women at a formal.

    Why the line dropped from -6.5 to -3.5
    The line between Sunday afternoon’s match up of the Patriots and Jets opened at New England -6.5 at Pinnacle Sports. Within a mere matter of hours the line plummeted to -3.5. The “sharps” have spoken. Those guys with six 22" monitors and poor hygiene that have been up for 36 hours straight have spoken.

    The Jets played exceptionally as 5.5 point road dogs in Houston, and covered from wire to wire, winning outright.

    The Patriots played poorly as 13 point home chalk against Buffalo, falling behind 7 early and never looking close to covering, in fact they were down by 11 with five minutes to play and the fact that they were able to claw their way back to squeak out a one point victory amazes me.

    Those two facts are undoubtedly influencing this line movement. People are not sold on Tom Brady’s effectiveness this early on as he’s making his return from his season ending knee injury, Tom’s timing was off, he completed 39 of 53 for 377 yards yet he was inaccurate like a drunken archer in key situations.

    Despite Brady’s rust, and contrary to the boxscore, New England outplayed the Bills for most of the game, surpassing the Bills in almost all game categories. The Patriots led the first down department 28-17, they dominated time of possession with 37:08 to 22:52, and led 441-276 in total net yards.

    When the game was on the line though, Brady led his team to two consecutive scoring drives and appeared to be Joe-Cool under pressure like we are so used to seeing. I’m expecting more of fourth quarter Tom than first quarter Tom in the game against the Jets this Sunday.

    Rex & Jets, put a sock in it!
    If there’s one thing that rookie head coach Rex Ryan’s Jets don’t seem to understand, it’s that you don’t want to provide the Patriots with any bulletin board material. Here are some nuggets to chew on, courtesy of Jets free safety Kerry Rhodes in an interview with the NY Daily News:

    "You go out from the first quarter on, from the first play on, and try to embarrass them (Patriots)," Rhodes said. "Not just go out there and try to win, try to embarrass them. Try to make them feel bad when they leave here."

    Pretty bold considering the New York Jets have dropped eight straight home games to New England. It gets better. Star defensive tackle Kris Jenkins was quoted as saying that the Jets will play this game, "like it’s the Super Bowl." I appreciate Kris’ passion, but you certainly don’t want your rookie quarterback who is making his home debut buying into that. The fact that he is sure to be thrown a bevy of defensive looks by genius head coach Bill Belichick is enough to digest.

    If the Jets are to stay in this game, Mark Sanchez needs to play this game like it’s any other game. Sure, it’s a divisional game, and that makes it important to both teams, but the Super Bowl is played in February.

    Here’s what it comes down to for me. The Jets are overvalued here due to their solid outing vs. a less than spectacular Texans squad. The Patriots are undervalued due to their struggling to put the Bills away. The Patriots defense is slightly worse than average, the Jets offense is slightly better than average. The Patriots offense is great, the Jets defense is good.

    The Patriots have the head coach advantage vs the rookie head coach. They've got the skill position advantage on the offensive side of the ball by far, and the Patriots have historically owned the Jets. I expect that to continue Sunday.

    Free Pick:
    Patriots -3 -110
    Last edited by SBR Lou; 09-18-09 at 02:49 PM.

  32. #32
    element1286
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyLou View Post
    Within a mere matter of hours the line plummeted to -3.5. The “sharps” have spoken. Those guys with six 22" monitors and poor hygiene that have been up for 36 hours straight have spoken.
    So the cool kids are on the Pats, is that what you are trying to say?

  33. #33
    brooks85
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    and now you got jets S Rhodes, saying they are going to embarrass brady and the pats, not a smart move. Especially, since rhodes is nothing special.
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  34. #34
    MonkeyF0cker
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    Squareville, USA.

  35. #35
    daggerkobe
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    GL Crazyl........ dont let the haterz get u down.



    P.s.......ALL IN JETS ML

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