1. 04-16-13 10:55 AM #1
    Pat McCrotch
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    Was talking to a friend last night about gambling, He has been betting on MLB, NHL and NBA over the past year or so.

    He does not watch any of these matches and only really knows the top guys in each sport, Lebron etc....

    He makes his picks by comparing stats on scores and odds, espn leaders stats and mlb.com.

    He has a 58% record in MLB, 60% in NBA but has been killed in the NHL. He is up around $4000 in NBA and MLB but down roughly $2000 in NHL.

    He says MLB is the best to cap and says NHL is a pure lottery.

    Does anyone think

    A. He can contine this as stats are very important when capping.
    B. This is luck and cant continue long term.


    To be honest Im jelous as fukk because I dont do as well as him and I watch games every day.
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  2. 04-16-13 11:00 AM #2
    smoke a bowl
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pat McCrotch View Post
    Was talking to a friend last night about gambling, He has been betting on MLB, NHL and NBA over the past year or so.

    He does not watch any of these matches and only really knows the top guys in each sport, Lebron etc....

    He makes his picks by comparing stats on scores and odds, espn leaders stats and mlb.com.

    He has a 58% record in MLB, 60% in NBA but has been killed in the NHL. He is up around $4000 in NBA and MLB but down roughly $2000 in NHL.

    He says MLB is the best to cap and says NHL is a pure lottery.

    Does anyone think

    A. He can contine this as stats are very important when capping.
    B. This is luck and cant continue long term.


    To be honest Im jelous as fukk because I dont do as well as him and I watch games every day.
    It can be done if he is using the stats in a logical way to predict future results but my guess is he is less than 5% to be doing so correctly.
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  3. 04-16-13 11:04 AM #3
    Darkside Magick
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    1.Yes

    2.Yes
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  4. 04-16-13 11:04 AM #4
    Frisco
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    Hard to imagine anyone maintaining 60% ats in the NBA.
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  5. 04-16-13 11:07 AM #5
    Darkside Magick
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frisco View Post
    Hard to imagine anyone maintaining 60% ats in the NBA.
    Knew a guy in Vegas who was 65% ats in NBA......was very selective only played like 8-14 plays a week
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  6. 04-16-13 11:58 AM #6
    Pat McCrotch
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    He plays 5-14 plays a day across all the sports, he has had something like 70 winning days out of 83 or sonething like that.

    Only very small stakes but I was fukking surprised when he showed me his account history.
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  7. 04-16-13 12:25 PM #7
    boeing power
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    If capping using only stats was successful long term the books would not be in business.
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  8. 04-16-13 12:32 PM #8
    InTheDrink
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    the first step to getting "a friend" to go tout
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  9. 04-16-13 12:32 PM #9
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by boeing power View Post
    If capping using only stats was successful long term the books would not be in business.
    Most books cut off winners, steam chasers, sharps, etc.

    Either way, only 1-2% will be successful doing it so meaningless in the big picture for the books.
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  10. 04-16-13 12:34 PM #10
    Darkside Magick
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    Quote Originally Posted by boeing power View Post
    If capping using only stats was successful long term the books would not be in business.
    Not true

    Best cappers are wall street guys who use stats all day. Take stats and make oscillators and candlesticks charts. Make money hand over fist....guys do it for fun because of limits.

    Why you think the wall street guys want the private equity betting to pass in Vegas.
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  11. 04-16-13 12:35 PM #11
    k13
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    Just take a look at most contests with big enough samples. You'll have like 5 people out of 500 hitting 60%.

    Once you go to really big samples like picking every game in the NFL/CFB. ZERO people hit 60%
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