1. 04-05-13 05:06 PM #1
    stevenash
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    Miami (Sanabia) +139 over Mets (Hefner)

    YTD 4-1
    +429.00 (4.29*)

    Last documented plays
    Hit with Cleveland +172 over Jays
    Hit with Cleveland +.5 runs +105 FF over Jays

    Tonight's play Miami Marlins +139

    1) Jeremy Hefner at -149 is a joke.
    He's a hamburger and the only time Hefner and the Mets should be -149 against anybody would be against Fairfield Ct. HS, and even our HS team would score runs against him.

    2) Alex Sanabia stuff is good, his MLB numbers, as limited as they are, are good.
    Sanabia is 5-3 in his 14 MLB starts with a 3.67 ERA, a solid, better than MLB average 1.27 WH/IP ratio.
    55K's in 83 MLB innings pitched is 6 per game.
    Factor in the fact he pitches for a crappy team, these numbers are good

    3) As previously mentioned, Jeremy Hefner is a hamburger.
    Hefner has pretty much the same Major League experience as Sanabia except his numbers are a poor 4-7 record, with a 5.09 ERA and 1.37 WH/IP ratio. Poor by MLB standards, and about 1.5 runs worse than Sanabia.

    OK without getting long winded here, the Mets are extremely over priced here.
    More than likely because they won 2 out of their first 3 vs. SD and Miami got swept by the Nats.

    Dig deeper, Mets won a series against a weak ass hitting Padre team, Miami got swept by that pitching machine named the Nationals.

    Know this, Jeremy Hefner is not Strasburg, or Zimmerman, or even Charlie Morton, and even though the Marlins are not murderers row, they have enough sticks to get to him.
    Marlins have faced him once in the past, and did hit Hefner.

    I always say, the only guarantee in MLB is that every team is going to win at least 60 games every season, and lose 60 games every season, and what happens with the other 40 games defines your season.

    This is a spot where the 0 and 3 Marlins win one if those 40 and go to 1 and 3
    This is a spot where the 2 and 1 Mets and go to 2 and 2.

    -149 on Hefner and the Mets is whack.
    +139 on a live arm (Sanabia) and the Fish is pure value here on (in my opinion is pretty much a flip)

    By the way Sanabia is a good control pitcher, not overpowering at 90 MPH fastball, but mixes in off speed stuff to accent the fastball.

    Looking for the Fish who only scored 1 run in 3 games against the Nat pitching machine to get their ya-ya's out tonight in NYC.

    Marlins +139
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  2. 04-05-13 05:14 PM #2
    Smoke
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  3. 04-05-13 05:17 PM #3
    jose21_us
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    I think the over has better value...
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  4. 04-05-13 05:30 PM #4
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by jose21_us View Post
    I think the over has better value...
    The over has value too, but 39 cents on the dollar in this spot can't be passed up. Mind you this is my opinion, and just putting it out there, pass of fade if one wishes, it's all rock and roll to me.
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  5. 04-05-13 05:35 PM #5
    bballs84
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    Been on this since this morning too Nasher.. Make$
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  6. 04-05-13 05:38 PM #6
    easyliving
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    as a Mets fan I considered taking this as well but I'm not sure if the Marlins offense can put up runs on the board and the Mets have some solid bets on offense.
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  7. 04-05-13 05:39 PM #7
    Carseller4
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    I'm on it!

    Got it at +137

    Good Luck!
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  8. 04-05-13 05:40 PM #8
    HOT WINGS
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    Yeah I like this play too. Wish I could add some more but you did a pretty good job of nailing everything in your write-up. GL lets get it
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  9. 04-05-13 05:43 PM #9
    Untied
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    Marlins have scored 1 run, so far this season
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  10. 04-05-13 05:45 PM #10
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Untied View Post
    Marlins have scored 1 run, so far this season
    And that trend is going to continue over the next 159 games?
    Points Awarded:

    Untied gave stevenash 7 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  11. 04-05-13 05:46 PM #11
    Vinnie Paz
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    On it nasher
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  12. 04-05-13 06:28 PM #12
    stevenash
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    Dobbs with the stick!!!
    That hamburger served up a spicy meatball
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  13. 04-05-13 06:31 PM #13
    pavyracer
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    I like this play. Threw a couple hundo on it. Good luck Stevo!
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  14. 04-05-13 06:35 PM #14
    BIGDAY
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    Nice call Steve.
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  15. 04-05-13 06:40 PM #15
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    Nice call Steve.
    I wouldn't be calling FTD and sending me roses just yet.
    1-0 in the second lol
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  16. 04-05-13 08:17 PM #16
    stevenash
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    Polanco with the stick!

    3-0 Fish

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  17. 04-05-13 08:26 PM #17
    face
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    nash on a slow heater

    nash is great at this

    too stubborn to just autotail, that's gonna change
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  18. 04-05-13 08:31 PM #18
    Wesley
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    nash is really sharp! great call
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  19. 04-05-13 08:41 PM #19
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wesley View Post
    nash is really sharp! great call
    Thanks for that, but not yet, Murphy just hit a 3 run bomb, 6-3 Fish.
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  20. 04-05-13 08:42 PM #20
    tatddy
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    Nasher good read pal. Mia was my first instinct today and I didn't get a play in.

    Good luck and close 'er out.
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  21. 04-05-13 08:52 PM #21
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by tatddy View Post
    Nasher good read pal. Mia was my first instinct today and I didn't get a play in.

    Good luck and close 'er out.
    Thanks Taddy, 6-3 top of 8.
    Love to see a couple of scratch runs off of Atchison here.
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  22. 04-05-13 09:28 PM #22
    HOT WINGS
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    3 outs to go!
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  23. 04-05-13 11:29 PM #23
    easyliving
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    great call we'll win the next 2
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  24. 04-06-13 12:39 AM #24
    figue
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    nice call like always buddy
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  25. 04-06-13 01:10 AM #25
    LowRollin
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  26. 04-06-13 01:11 AM #26
    FrozenMAN
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    nice write up...sanabia is not good though sir...as the only marlins in america he's not good......besides stanton i simply dont see how this team could ever beat you as YOU JUST DONT LET STANTON BEAT YOU.....

    so far this year the pitching hasnt been bad, vs the nats we lookeded decent with the only legit guy we have is the #1 in nolasco yet the bats we have are AWFUL...dobbs needs to be full time
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  27. 04-06-13 01:18 AM #27
    FrozenMAN
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    with the taste of a win in their mouth I LOVE The Fish Sat with Nolasco getting +145...that's worth a shot and niese never impresses me...both have been hit around in the past starts vs each other but still nolasco is the #1 this year and knows that in the past he was a 3/4 and not as much burden was on him, this year he's stepping it up as he's playing to get traded to a contendor to get his first shot at a World Series PLUS contract ends at end of the year and wan't that 60 million dollar deal in the off season

    MARLINS +145 @ bovada
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  28. 04-06-13 01:57 AM #28
    Poison-Nut
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    Great call Nash
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  29. 04-06-13 03:45 AM #29
    konck
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    I missed your post today but great minds think alike
    It was simple case of not letting a toilet lay a big
    number against anyone

    905] MIAMI +140
    ( ACTION )
    [911] ARIZON +123
    ( ACTION )    		 60.00 / 261.12 261.12 WIN
    WIN
    WIN    		 04/05/2013 04:33 PM
    Ticket #: 2011893
    Apr 05 07:10 PM
    Apr 05 10:10 PM    		 MLB
    MLB    		 PARLAY (2 TEAMS) RR (3P-2T)
    [905] MIAMI +140
    ( ACTION )
    [914] LA DOD -203
    ( ACTION )    		 60.00 / 154.94 154.94 WIN
    WIN
    WIN    		 04/05/2013 04:33 PM
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  30. 04-06-13 03:47 AM #30
    konck
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    Loshe had no spring train it made that game even and I thought a slight lean to Miley
    even though his track record vs Milw was bad
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  31. 04-06-13 03:50 AM #31
    konck
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    Quote Originally Posted by FrozenMAN View Post
    with the taste of a win in their mouth I LOVE The Fish Sat with Nolasco getting +145...that's worth a shot and niese never impresses me...both have been hit around in the past starts vs each other but still nolasco is the #1 this year and knows that in the past he was a 3/4 and not as much burden was on him, this year he's stepping it up as he's playing to get traded to a contendor to get his first shot at a World Series PLUS contract ends at end of the year and wan't that 60 million dollar deal in the off season

    MARLINS +145 @ bovada
    Niese has a lot of talent he does blow up every 4th game but he will be an over 500 career pitcher even with a bad team. If you think Niese has no talent I would say you have less. Not every pitcher has to throw 95 to be good. Niese had a great spring and a nice opener. I hate betting chalk but I bet Niese game 1 and I will have him today.
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  32. 04-06-13 09:02 AM #32
    jose21_us
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    Wow marlins do sure make u sweat every win... I thought for sure the over was done.
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