1. 04-04-13 03:47 PM #981
    Smoke
    Smoke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-09
    Posts: 48,111
    Betpoints: 1510

    Quote Originally Posted by DiggityDaggityDo View Post
    I'll bring the vodka!!!
    I'll bring the bath salts!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 04-04-13 03:50 PM #982
    therealJ$
    therealJ$'s Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-29-13
    Posts: 127
    Betpoints: 476

    Kings are -107 -1/2 right now at 5Dimes.That's almost .2 units....GL Nino
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 04-04-13 06:11 PM #983
    fitguy67
    blessed be the cheesemakers
    fitguy67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-13-11
    Posts: 5,082
    Betpoints: 3358

    Quote Originally Posted by snapperman2 View Post
    A -1 PL bet is not the same as a -0.5 regulation time bet. Suppose that your team wins by one goal in regulation time. Then a regulation time bet would win but a -1 bet would push. On the other hand, suppose that your team ties in regulation time and wins in overtime. Then a regulation time bet would lose, but a -1 PL bet would push.
    snappy, when i clinked glasses with J$ (who called for the reg bet)...it was cuz we BOTH won (him with his reg, and me with my do-it-yourself -1 PL)...

    bald_guy, thanks for chiming in...u obviously have the hang of the bet-sizing...but still have a bit of confusion about how it gets graded...with -1, you only WIN if your team wins by 2 or more...1 run victories get a "consolation PUSH"...anything worse than that INCLUDING a tie are big fat LOSSes...everything is for the WHOLE GAME, unlike the reg which grades at 60mins...so with the -1PL a reg tie gives you a chance for the consolation PUSH (if your team should win the game, which means win by 1, therefore a tie)...
    Last edited by fitguy67; 04-04-13 at 06:16 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 04-04-13 06:40 PM #984
    fitguy67
    blessed be the cheesemakers
    fitguy67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-13-11
    Posts: 5,082
    Betpoints: 3358

    'nother thing, bald guy...the whole-game "-1 PL" is best considered an alternate way of accomplishing the same thing as the "-0.5 reg"...a way of backing your team when the ML get too pricey...

    notice today's card has DET -110...the ML's not too pricey...best to go the ML route (ie. stupid to give up the "1-goal victories" if you can have them for reasonable money)...

    but WAS and LAK are more pricey...so ways of getting a better price (-0.5 reg OR -1PL) come into consideration...each having their advantages and disadvantages...with "reg" you win on the reg-1-goal victories that you'd just push with the -1...on the other hand, a reg-bet would lose a game tied after 60min, but your -1 bet still leaves you with a chance for a push)...in MLB the -1RL has always been the standard way of getting a better price...in hockey it's always been the reg-bet...(I just threw out the idea that there's no reason that the -1 can not be used in the NHL too)

    on balance, in MLB or NHL...ML is the best way to go if not too price...if too pricey, either pass or consider a lower-cost alternative...that "sacrifices"--by losing or pushing--on some of the results that a ML-bet would clearly win...You gain a better price/you sacrifice ways of winning your bet.

    __________________

    Nino is a "value-junkie"/not an "action junkie"...and i'd tail just as he calls 'em...i merely offered up an alternate to "-0.5 reg" that he calls for occasionally that some might appreciate...over the haul the two types of bet would be close in EV...with the -1 being less volatile (cuz of the reasonably-frequent pushes)...
    Last edited by fitguy67; 04-04-13 at 07:18 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 04-04-13 06:55 PM #985
    bald_guy
    bald_guy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-02-12
    Posts: 990
    Betpoints: 5019

    Well. I still think a tie would be a push on the ML part of a home rolled ML-1. I think it depends on how your book grades a tie. Which don't happen very often.

    Edit: seems ties can no longer happen. So the case above can't happen. When I seen total stats such as 16-5-1, I assumed the 1 was a tie. But guess they are reporting they was tied at end of regulation.
    Last edited by bald_guy; 04-04-13 at 07:15 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 04-04-13 07:24 PM #986
    cockblocker
    cockblocker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-26-09
    Posts: 1,268
    Betpoints: 19

    Have to disagree with you on the Kings El Nino.
    Minny +160 .....................10 units

    Play of the year ....This team needs to get back on track and I see them doing it tonight. They match up very well against the Kings. They keep Carter off the board and they win. Backstrom in net for Minny and BERNIER in net for the Kings.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 04-04-13 07:38 PM #987
    Smoke
    Smoke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-09
    Posts: 48,111
    Betpoints: 1510

    Quote Originally Posted by fitguy67 View Post
    'nother thing, bald guy...the whole-game "-1 PL" is best considered an alternate way of accomplishing the same thing as the "-0.5 reg"...a way of backing your team when the ML get too pricey...

    notice today's card has DET -110...the ML's not too pricey...best to go the ML route (ie. stupid to give up the "1-goal victories" if you can have them for reasonable money)...

    but WAS and LAK are more pricey...so ways of getting a better price (-0.5 reg OR -1PL) come into consideration...each having their advantages and disadvantages...with "reg" you win on the reg-1-goal victories that you'd just push with the -1...on the other hand, a reg-bet would lose a game tied after 60min, but your -1 bet still leaves you with a chance for a push)...in MLB the -1RL has always been the standard way of getting a better price...in hockey it's always been the reg-bet...(I just threw out the idea that there's no reason that the -1 can not be used in the NHL too)

    on balance, in MLB or NHL...ML is the best way to go if not too price...if too pricey, either pass or consider a lower-cost alternative...that "sacrifices"--by losing or pushing--on some of the results that a ML-bet would clearly win...You gain a better price/you sacrifice ways of winning your bet.

    __________________

    Nino is a "value-junkie"/not an "action junkie"...and i'd tail just as he calls 'em...i merely offered up an alternate to "-0.5 reg" that he calls for occasionally that some might appreciate...over the haul the two types of bet would be close in EV...with the -1 being less volatile (cuz of the reasonably-frequent pushes)...
    damn dude you overthink things way too much. Just bet the games
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 04-04-13 08:09 PM #988
    therealJ$
    therealJ$'s Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-29-13
    Posts: 127
    Betpoints: 476

    I prefer Bernier actually since Quicks come back from injury..Bernier is one hell of a goalie
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 04-04-13 08:28 PM #989
    bald_guy
    bald_guy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-02-12
    Posts: 990
    Betpoints: 5019

    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    4/4
    Los Angeles Kings Regulation (-125) 2u
    Detroit Red Wings (-110) 2u
    Washington Capitals Regulation (+115)
    0-1 so far tonight. But luckily that was our 1 unit play. So lets hope our 2 2 unit plays do better!!
    Update:
    1-2 tonight. Since i got Los Angeles +100 with the roll your own ML-1 method, the 2 unit plays cancelled each other out so am only down one unit. Not bad at all.

    Thanks for the picks. I think our fortunes will change soon.
    Last edited by bald_guy; 04-05-13 at 12:01 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 04-04-13 08:29 PM #990
    DEUCED
    DEUCED's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-02-10
    Posts: 615
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    Rusher we will. I got comps at mgm detroit. You join and we'll make it a 3way
    I'm in for the daisy chain too!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 04-04-13 08:31 PM #991
    therealJ$
    therealJ$'s Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-29-13
    Posts: 127
    Betpoints: 476

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 04-04-13 08:48 PM #992
    fitguy67
    blessed be the cheesemakers
    fitguy67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-13-11
    Posts: 5,082
    Betpoints: 3358

    for those that don't mind thinking...this final report on how the "-0.5, reg" and "-1, whole game" bets compare price-wise...

    Everything at 5dimes, so "apples with apples"...

    right now...about an hour before puck-drop...

    -0.5, reg = -107

    "-1, whole game" = +100 (ML= -175/PL= +175)

    _________
    so it appears that the extra work involved in calculating and executing the -1PL (relative to the "off the shelf" regulation bet) is compensated somewhat by a little discount...I'd expect that such a small-yet-significant discount would tend to persist over the haul...i'd bet that those setting the "-0.5, reg" price are well-aware of the value of the -1PL and use it as a "benchmark" of sorts...for various historical-data-based reasons (esp. the ratio of regulation 1-goal victories by the fave to regulation ties...things that affect the relative value of the two options)...they like to consistently price their reg-bets a few points from it...(BTW, ditto the setting of the "+0.5,reg" relative to the +1PL "benchmark"...the differences will be the result of statistical calculation)
    _____________
    it would be nice if an NHL data-weeny could evaluate the relative performance of each type of bet for all faves closing, say, with a ML -160 or higher...you'd need data on closing ML, PL, and reg bets as well as the game results
    _________
    I won't take up any more thread space with this...

    Go Kings!!!
    Last edited by fitguy67; 04-04-13 at 10:34 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 04-04-13 10:56 PM #993
    El Nino
    October 2014 POTM
    El Nino's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-03-12
    Posts: 18,426
    Betpoints: 1868

    Quote Originally Posted by cockblocker View Post
    Have to disagree with you on the Kings El Nino.
    Minny +160 .....................10 units

    Play of the year ....This team needs to get back on track and I see them doing it tonight. They match up very well against the Kings. They keep Carter off the board and they win. Backstrom in net for Minny and BERNIER in net for the Kings.
    Sorry, pal. When I fade the Wild (as a homer) it is a good idea to tail. The Wild are 0-2 this year on the 2nd leg of back to back road games without a day of rest. Both losses are out west. Bernier is underrated as well.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 04-04-13 11:12 PM #994
    Vegas39
    Vegas39's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-22-11
    Posts: 30,686
    Betpoints: 214

    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    Sorry, pal. When I fade the Wild (as a homer) it is a good idea to tail. The Wild are 0-2 this year on the 2nd leg of back to back road games without a day of rest. Both losses are out west. Bernier is underrated as well.
    very much so
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 04-05-13 12:04 AM #995
    El Nino
    October 2014 POTM
    El Nino's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-03-12
    Posts: 18,426
    Betpoints: 1868

    1-2 -1.33u

    The City of Detroit can go fukk itself today
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 04-05-13 12:43 PM #996
    fitguy67
    blessed be the cheesemakers
    fitguy67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-13-11
    Posts: 5,082
    Betpoints: 3358

    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    1-2 -1.33u

    The City of Detroit can go fukk itself today
    In this morning's Detroit Free Press

    In direct response to El Nino's proposal...the legislative council of the great city of Detroit is now drafting a resolution to officially declare itself a "hermaphrodite"... this would clear all legal barriers to attempting to fully comply...and set the stage for other cities to also attempt what once was thought impossible...

    altho many logistical issues remain to be ironed out, all four major sports teams--the Wings, Tigers, and especially the Lions--are likely to play a key role in the proposed "Big Bang" scenario...and a committee is being set up to develop ways to educate the community on how to pawn everything they own and go "all in" en masse, when the signal is given by the city fathers...

    Last edited by fitguy67; 04-05-13 at 12:52 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 04-05-13 04:42 PM #997
    ch3ss
    i make it rain....
    ch3ss's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-18-13
    Posts: 208
    Betpoints: 376

    Nino:

    Regulation for the Caps nicked you in the ass... sorry my friend
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 04-05-13 05:24 PM #998
    bald_guy
    bald_guy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-02-12
    Posts: 990
    Betpoints: 5019

    O well. Last night was last night. Any thing good on tap for tonight niņo?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 04-05-13 07:51 PM #999
    El Nino
    October 2014 POTM
    El Nino's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-03-12
    Posts: 18,426
    Betpoints: 1868

    4/5

    Anaheim Ducks Regulation (-125) 2u

    YTD
    85-64-2 +34.73u
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 04-05-13 07:52 PM #1000
    El Nino
    October 2014 POTM
    El Nino's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-03-12
    Posts: 18,426
    Betpoints: 1868

    Quote Originally Posted by ch3ss View Post
    Nino:

    Regulation for the Caps nicked you in the ass... sorry my friend
    Yeah, I didn't feel that there was long term value in taking the -140. Both teams were undefeated in the shootout this year. Took the gamble on the + $.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 04-05-13 08:22 PM #1001
    bald_guy
    bald_guy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-02-12
    Posts: 990
    Betpoints: 5019

    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    4/5
    Anaheim Ducks Regulation (-125) 2u
    Thanks. Lock and loaded, but with ML-1.

    I foolishly did a play on my own tonight, Pens - NY Rangers OVER. LOL. Needless to say, should have did the under. O well, hopefully this play will be more productive. Thanks for the pick!!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 04-05-13 09:43 PM #1002
    ch3ss
    i make it rain....
    ch3ss's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-18-13
    Posts: 208
    Betpoints: 376

    Ducks aint looking to good right now
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 04-05-13 10:06 PM #1003
    El Nino
    October 2014 POTM
    El Nino's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-03-12
    Posts: 18,426
    Betpoints: 1868

    Quote Originally Posted by ch3ss View Post
    Ducks aint looking to good right now
    Not scurred. I've lost so many 2 and 3 goal leads. I'm due to get one my way.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 04-05-13 10:16 PM #1004
    Smoke
    Smoke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-09
    Posts: 48,111
    Betpoints: 1510

    El nino can you please do a video in assless chaps?

    Thank you
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 04-06-13 12:07 AM #1005
    El Nino
    October 2014 POTM
    El Nino's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-03-12
    Posts: 18,426
    Betpoints: 1868

    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    El nino can you please do a video in assless chaps?

    Thank you
    Smoke, can you change your avatar back to a hot chick. I feel like I'm going to be prison raped every time I see it.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 04-06-13 12:27 AM #1006
    El Nino
    October 2014 POTM
    El Nino's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-03-12
    Posts: 18,426
    Betpoints: 1868

    Quote Originally Posted by ch3ss View Post
    Ducks aint looking to good right now
    4 goals in the 1st period, nothing for the rest of the game...totally standard. May have to wait until the playoffs for more plays. This is getting ridiculous.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 04-06-13 12:50 AM #1007
    Dollars2Donuts
    Deadly
    Dollars2Donuts's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-07-13
    Posts: 8,803
    Betpoints: 589

    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    4 goals in the 1st period, nothing for the rest of the game...totally standard. May have to wait until the playoffs for more plays. This is getting ridiculous.
    Reminds me of last week when I had Canucks/Oilers over 5 and the Oil Kings scored 4 in the first 8 minutes....clearly no more goals for 52 minutes!!!!


    D2D
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 04-06-13 03:04 AM #1008
    bald_guy
    bald_guy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-02-12
    Posts: 990
    Betpoints: 5019

    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    4 goals in the 1st period, nothing for the rest of the game...totally standard. May have to wait until the playoffs for more plays. This is getting ridiculous.
    A bit of a rough week, no doubt about that. I see there are 10 games tomorrow. Will try to keep watch in case you pick something. Hang in there.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 04-06-13 10:20 AM #1009
    TC Woods
    TC Woods's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-17-11
    Posts: 1,780
    Betpoints: 479

    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    Smoke, can you change your avatar back to a hot chick. I feel like I'm going to be prison raped every time I see it.
    Name: thumbs_up_smiley.gif Views: 447 Size: 27.6 KB
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 04-06-13 03:41 PM #1010
    ChicagoBlackhawk
    ChicagoBlackhawk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-13
    Posts: 518
    Betpoints: 160

    Quote Originally Posted by Bolzano View Post
    I’m in possession of confidential information about fix matches from MLB in the coming days.


    email: marco . biazzgo @ aol . com

    lol at this attempt to sell bs info
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 04-06-13 03:55 PM #1011
    Drakester45
    Drakester45's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-23-11
    Posts: 105
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by Bolzano View Post
    I’m in possession of confidential information about fix matches from MLB in the coming days.


    email: marco . biazzgo @ aol . com
    Wow!!! I would Pay ANY amount of money for such valuable information. Where do I send my cash? Do you accept 3rd party, out of state checks? LOL!! Ridiculous!!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 04-06-13 04:14 PM #1012
    Smoke
    Smoke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-09
    Posts: 48,111
    Betpoints: 1510

    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    Smoke, can you change your avatar back to a hot chick. I feel like I'm going to be prison raped every time I see it.
    thats the idea
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  33. 04-06-13 08:43 PM #1013
    ch3ss
    i make it rain....
    ch3ss's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-18-13
    Posts: 208
    Betpoints: 376

    Nino... was at a damn baby shower, but as you can imagine i put 2U on Caps winning in regulation...

    Well Ovie is penetrating lighting up the lamp.... watch out fellas.....
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  34. 04-06-13 10:46 PM #1014
    El Nino
    October 2014 POTM
    El Nino's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-03-12
    Posts: 18,426
    Betpoints: 1868

    Quote Originally Posted by ch3ss View Post
    Nino... was at a damn baby shower, but as you can imagine i put 2U on Caps winning in regulation...

    Well Ovie is penetrating lighting up the lamp.... watch out fellas.....
    Yep, Capitals are heating up at the right time. Was busy last night and all day, didn't have a chance to cap any games. Looks like the books prob. took a beating though.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  35. 04-07-13 10:20 AM #1015
    ch3ss
    i make it rain....
    ch3ss's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-18-13
    Posts: 208
    Betpoints: 376

    Caps -1.5 against Tampa.. This is to tough.... Big time points..Playing at home... Id take the $ line and not the PL... They are decent rivals, but its going to be loud tonight... why ? I am going to be at the game haha

    GO CAPS
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
First ... 26272829303132 ... Last
Top
« Previous Thread | Players Talk | Next Thread »