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Whats more important? Picking winners or bankroll managment??
Ive always been good at picking winners(cant ya tell--look at my BTP_) but have never taken betting serious enough to really care about the math end of it.......
I learned today parlays are essentially useless as they should be straight/if bet for more $....
Do the wiseguys like root not only have top bankroll mgmt but pick a high % of winners ?....
What do you think?>
bankroll management above everything else. you could be hitting 60% but get on tilt after a bad loss and make a large bet and drop all your profits due to your poor br management
Picking winners!!!! If you cant pick winners there is no need for "money management"
Which came first....the chicken or the egg
for sure...i know a guy that kills it but always ends up broke.....gotta teach him he cant leave with a % ownership of the casino
i agree easy....
Tough question.
Brm is good. But you need to know when a good time to pull the trigger as well.
Only thing keeping me +EV in MMA is 4-0 on the year with max 5 unit wagers. I think you have to be able to find these types of games / matchups.
no smoke....we actually bet and require feedback on occasion....no ? is a dumb ?
big ...good input..kinda what i meant....is it more about picking spots....or are % plays more important than pulling the trigger/keeping even stedy 1 U bets....never getting off course?
Bookmakers love steady 1units bettors!!!!!Originally Posted by PaperTrail07
Combo of both. With an edge to brm.
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they do....they love people spread betting as well....I wish capperguy was here to talk....that guy knows his fuckkn business and id like to talk to him for a while
this isn't even close. bankroll management.
Both.
BRM is important but it doesn't hold a fukking candle, not even in the same fukking ballfield, as picking a fukkin winner.
Take your perfect BRM, bet quarter Kelly, whatever, and pick losers, and watch your BRmethodically dwindle Down to pathetic levels.
Bit what really makes picking winners king Dick is that not many can pick a winner consistently and beat the books. It's rare. Anyone, I repeatanyone can learn BRM. It's rote memorization for fukks sake. There are calculators that take thought out of the equation.
BRM is so fukking simple that this is laughable.
Last edited by The Kraken; 12-17-12 at 10:35 PM.
youll lose for sure if youre not very good at both
That's very true. But BRM should be the easy part. It's too easy to learn and understand. There's absolutely no decent explanation for bad BRM.
But I digress because you are exactly right.
Winners.
If you aren't winning, what is the point.
Trick is really to pick your spots and actually gamble.
Sports betting and poker are like golf:
It's not how good you hit the good ones, its how bad you hit the bad ones.
BR management and it's not even up for discussion, it's a fact. You cannot win without it, unless you pick 100% winners.
Winners aren't important, only thing that matters is VALUE, betting MLB is an easy way to see how it's value not winners that matter. Even NFL, you may love team A to win, but you can't love them at any price. If the line moves far enough the value will be on team B not team A.
I'd recommend flat betting until you can somewhat accurately estimate your edge, otherwise kelly could turn your 56% ATS -110 record into a $$ loss.
GL
Last edited by Kindred; 12-18-12 at 12:15 AM.
Since I doubt anyone has an actual bankroll they use solely for gambling then I doubt many people here qualify to answer the question anyway.
Picking winners is the most important. End of discussion.
You can use all the fancy approaches you want if you cant pick a winner it doesnt matter.
Also a guy going on tilt or going all in doesnt qualify as 'bad money management' thats called being a degenerate loser.
The term itself insinuates you are using some sort of 'logical' method to how you gamble. But again most people dont qualify there either because they dont make a logical approach. There arent many guys who should be straddling bets anyway i.e. 1 unit, 2 unit, 5 unit etc. Most guys should just stick to a single unit size for every play. at least until they figure out if they can win in the first place. All straddling bets does is give them highs and lows and forces their hands. it doesnt give them any idea on whether or not they can win consistently enough to do it for more than entertainment purposes.
But this basically shows why just about everyone goes broke eventually, because most cant pick winners in the first place, and they compound that with not knowing HOW to gamble. That is a recipe for failure.
But there are guys who can do it, but there arent too many Picassos but a hell of a lot of guys who cant color inside the lines of a coloring book.
If you don't have the ability to know/find +EV bets then money management doesn't even come into play.
no such thing as a +ev bet unless youre playing both sides and cant lose both or vig is such you make money regardless. Or youre betting on a fixed game and even that can be debated since I have seen fixed games, that were most definitely fixed ...lose.
NO one sided play is ever plus even despite what people want to claim.
the most important thing is to try and keep bigday from posting in your pick threads.
bankroll management is a silly idea, predicated on the belief that you will never earn another dollar in your lifetime.
so if i gave you +300 on the lakers moneyline tonight that would ONLY be +ev if you bet the other side too?
Its all relative and it is also by comparison.so if i gave you +300 on the lakers moneyline tonight that would ONLY be +ev if you bet the other side too?
Unless you can make your own line and be right about 80% of the time youre not going to know what "+ ev" is unless you compare it to something else that probably wasnt close to begin with. + ev means you have positive odds and cant lose. Some guys like to say that if you bet it enough times you would win more than you would lose in the long run. But that isnt the case because each game is individual and specific in its own right.
Your example is ridiculous but even so Lakers are not a shoe in to win SU at home, would +300 be a 'good' price, obviously, theyre playing the bob cats. But that doesnt mean thay cant lose.
A true +ev bet is one where you can SAFELY put 100% of your bankroll on it and have no fear of going broke. I know many guys dont define it that way, but that is really what it is.
Other guys try to determine/define 'edge' and more often than not they do that by comparing prices at different times. The irony of that is the price has to 'improve' on their side to give them more 'value' which in most people's minds means the other side, which took the money, is more likely to win. Especially if it is so called 'sharp' money moving it.
But of guys really want to get technical here is a good question...
you start out with 10K, and want to place 5 bets, you are using kelly and 3 of them are 5.5% types, and 2 are 6.5% types (just slightly better). Do you bet the three 5.5 type for 550 each and the two 6.5 for 650 each or do you recalculate your bankroll after each bet? So the first bet would either be 550 or 660, and then the next bet would either be 607.75, 617.50, 522.5 or 514.25. Then the next subsequent bet would also be reduced, and so on and so forth. So instead of having 2950 in play youre going to have somewhere round 2622.
If you dont recalculate and let it go as a percentage of starting bankroll when do you reduce or increase your bet size in relation to your bankroll as you win or lose. End of the day? End of the week? If you go 0-5 in the example I set, and you want to bet the late game to bail out and you have another 6.5% play are you still calling your bankroll 10k? Or are you calling it the 7050 it actually is?
Those might sound like dumb question but theyre the types of questions anyone with an actual bankroll and actual desire to win is going to have to answer or at least address.
Because it comes down to over betting or betting within reason, and if you start off on a losing streak and follow any sort of sound money management theory it is going to take a lot more bets to recoup your losses than it took to lose them.
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