[matthew919]

Accidentally posted in the wrong forum.

[matthew919]

Hi all,

I'm working on a model for betting MLB money lines, using three years of full season data from Retrosheet as a training set, and another three as a test set. It's now doing well enough against closing lines that I'd be comfortable betting the plays. However, as a broke PhD student, I don't have much of a bankroll to start with. And my eventual (far off) goal is establishing a solid, long-term win reputation along the lines of Edward Golden and Dr. Bob, and potentially offering a subscription service. I've seen several older stats on the RAS website for UltmateHandicappingChallenge (now defunct I guess?) and TrackPicks.com, so I'm interested to hear people's opinions on monitoring services or other methods to reliably track picks. Does this help to establish your brand at all? I realize the market is saturated with charlatans and reeks from a distance of snake oil, so I naturally assume that most (if not all) of these "unbiased monitors" are also crooks who take kickbacks in exchange for posting inflated stats. But I'm thinking there might be a legitimate way. Simply put- what factors convince you that a handicapper is for real?

I've only just begun reading up on the subject and don't pretend to have any more than a cursory knowledge of the gambling business, so thanks in advance for any suggestions.

[CanuckG]

Winning

[Smoke]

Winning

[High3rEl3m3nt]

winning...it's all that matters. You won't have to spend the ad dollars that losing touts shell out either.

[matthew919]

Right, but I guess my question pertains more to the validation aspect. Meaning: what's the best way to validate your own record?

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Post of all of your plays during the upcoming season. You aren't going to be able to cut any corners.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Also, if you are truly on to something, bet your own money and get rich. Try to pitch this to some of your friends as an investment opportunity. Avoid going tout and all of the perils that are sure to follow.

[matthew919]

Thanks for the reply. Where's a good place to post them though? Obviously they need to be locked for editing... Would it be worthwhile to create a SBR contest league for this purpose? Or are there better options available? Appreciate the input.

[RudyRuetigger]

hilarious

the last thing winners want to do is sell their plays

unless its wnba or college totals

[Darkside Magick]

Also, if you are truly on to something, bet your own money and get rich. Try to pitch this to some of your friends as an investment opportunity. Avoid going tout and all of the perils that are sure to follow.

This.

[eidolon]

Best way to establish your reputation is to start a thread saying you can hit 75% of games, and then start posting them.

[matthew919]

Rudy, what's the reasoning behind the college totals/wnba theory (not arguing, just asking out of ignorance)? Does the amount of action on those games make a difference?

I do plan to bet my own picks, but my main concern is that, with a pathetically small starting bankroll - we're talking like 2K - it'll take about ten seasons to build any kind of bankroll that qualifies as formidable, given the ROI I'm expecting (which is decent but certainly not stellar). I'd like to chop that timeframe down any way I can.
I do like the idea of pitching this idea to my friends (the ones with real jobs anyway, haha).

But selling picks at a flat subscription rate sounds like a pretty cushy lifestyle to me - steady paycheck; no swings to worry about... I'm sure the guys at RAS are doing just fine that way. Of course, I suppose you've got to establish that you're worth it first.

[Bigbill365]

Heres how you become succesfull give %65 of your clients 1 side and %35 the other side that way your guranteed repeat customer or you can do 50/50

[Inkwell77]

If you post your plays on the forums and win you will get customers, guaranteed.

It will take success over at least 1500 plays before you will get a RAS type of following. It will take a while.

[checkit]

I would start posting your picks at one or more of the following sites:
-Pick Monitor
-Handicapper's Watchdog
-Wagerminds

I have been on Pick Monitor for a while now and I feel very confident that there is no behind the scenes record scrubbing going on. They do have some problems with inaccurate lines though, particularly with soccer and tennis.

If you are interested in selling picks for Bet Advisor (one of the most reputable websites for handicappers to sell picks), then you need to log your picks with Tipster Academy, and if you can demonstrate a good record over a period of time, then they may select you to offer your picks through their site.

Another option would be to take the advice of some of the posters above and to post your picks in a forum like this one.

Hope this helps.

[CanuckG]

Doubt many people buy peoples picks at Pick Monitor

[Dirty Sanchez]

Thanks for the reply. Where's a good place to post them though? Obviously they need to be locked for editing... Would it be worthwhile to create a SBR contest league for this purpose? Or are there better options available? Appreciate the input.

Open a Lemonade Stand...you'll make more money and people will actually like you

[CanuckG]

I would start posting your picks at one or more of the following sites:
-Pick Monitor
-Handicapper's Watchdog
-Wagerminds

I have been on Pick Monitor for a while now and I feel very confident that there is no behind the scenes record scrubbing going on. They do have some problems with inaccurate lines though, particularly with soccer and tennis.

If you are interested in selling picks for Bet Advisor (one of the most reputable websites for handicappers to sell picks), then you need to log your picks with Tipster Academy, and if you can demonstrate a good record over a period of time, then they may select you to offer your picks through their site.

Another option would be to take the advice of some of the posters above and to post your picks in a forum like this one.

Hope this helps.

Also Pick Monitor makes you pay a monthly fee to be able to sell picks What if no one buys your picks you are screwed.

[zoo youk]

trying to compare yourself to RAS or saying you want to be on his level tout wise is like a high school basketball player that will never make the NBA saying I'm gonna become the next Jordan.

no one will ever reach RAS' level.

we can dream though.

[chunk]

By providing honest and transparent (verifiable) records for minimum 3 years/~1000 plays. At that point if you are winning at an acceptable rate and have been consistent with all of the variables, you may get some respect from those who understand what it takes to beat this game. Here is the real challenge.....getting it across the ignorant and uninformed that make up the vast majority. All that you have to do is read some of the threads in any of the subforums and you will understand what I'm talking about.

[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

By providing honest and transparent (verifiable) records for minimum 3 years/~1000 plays. At that point if you are winning at an acceptable rate and have been consistent with all of the variables, you may get some respect from those who understand what it takes to beat this game. Here is the real challenge.....getting it across the ignorant and uninformed that make up the vast majority. All that you have to do is read some of the threads in any of the subforums and you will understand what I'm talking about.

well stated

[teabagger]

by providing honest and transparent (verifiable) records for minimum 3 years/~1000 plays. At that point if you are winning at an acceptable rate and have been consistent with all of the variables, you may get some respect from those who understand what it takes to beat this game. Here is the real challenge.....getting it across the ignorant and uninformed that make up the vast majority. All that you have to do is read some of the threads in any of the subforums and you will understand what i'm talking about.

perfect

[newguy]

By beating the prick weeks 7 & 8 and having the badge to prove it.

[burchfield]

By posting in the right forum lol. Give out free picks on Twitter myspace and forums well before games start

[thegunner6]

And who the f... are you ?? One of those scum bag handicappers ...

[thegunner6]

By providing honest and transparent (verifiable) records for minimum 3 years/~1000 plays. At that point if you are winning at an acceptable rate and have been consistent with all of the variables, you may get some respect from those who understand what it takes to beat this game. Here is the real challenge.....getting it across the ignorant and uninformed that make up the vast majority. All that you have to do is read some of the threads in any of the subforums and you will understand what I'm talking about.

And who the f... are you ?? One of those scum bag handicappers ...

[PAULYPOKER]

Accidentally posted in the wrong forum.

Nah right forum,the way you build a solid reputation is become a consistent fade


Perfect example is Brandon Lang............

[thegunner6]

Nah right forum,the way you build a solid reputation is become a consistent fade


Perfect example is Brandon Lang............

yes...

[chunk]

Does anyone that visits this sub forum understand why 98% of the pay services out there would like to see this topic disappear? Granted this is basically a rhetorical question, but that is only for the minority.

[Meega]

just as I figured....chunk is one if those clowns who thinks he's better and more intelligent than the rest of us morons, and also feels the need to try and shove his opinion down everyone else's throats.

granted, this thread is based on a silly question to begin with, but much easier to ignore the post completely than to have to make yourself feel better by trying to belittle the author and anyone else within striking distance.

why not let people figure it out for themselves and do it their way there chunk? most will fail, and hopefully learn from it, few will succeed. either way, a man who learns how to figure shit out for himself is certainly better off win or lose than one who needs his hand held by almighty people who know think they know everything.

[chunk]

No need to get so defensive there meager. Personally, I don't think that the Op's question is silly at all and I'm not trying to belittle anyone. Don't worry, there will still be plenty of lemmings that will purchase your lock nuts monster play of the month. Yes, it is a little deviation from the usual drivel, but I wouldn't fret about it so much.

[matthew919]

Thanks for the advice, guys!

[crustyme]

win sbr badges betting points.... instant credibility!

[grease lightnin]

Slick your hair back.