[onlooker]

I bold typed the part about the onside kick after safety. So the people who think you can't, can see you can.

Every week, seemingly meaningless actions on the field of play affect gambling spreads. A late touchdown for a team that is getting blown out or on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer for a team that had already won the game.

But rarely does a coach decide whether the bettors win or lose.

That's exactly what happened on Thursday night as San Francisco 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh elected to decline a safety and instead take over on downs with 43 seconds to go, so as to not even give the Seattle Seahawks a chance to get the ball back.

"I have never seen that," tweeted longtime Las Vegas Bookmaker Jay Kornegay, who now runs the race and sports book at the Las Vegas Hotel. "Crazy to see that with the cover on the line."

By declining the safety, the 49ers ended up winning 13-6. Those extra two points left off the board hurt everyone betting on the 49ers to cover a seven to eight point spread. Those who took the Seahawks cheered in disbelief at Las Vegas sportsbooks.

John Avello, head of the race and sports book for the Wynn in Las Vegas, said the reaction to Harbaugh taking points off the board was even crazier than what it was in Week 3, when the replacement refs ruled that the Seahawks' Golden Tate scored a touchdown, giving the Seahawks the win against the Green Bay Packers and all that bet on them the win against the spread.

The worldwide swing in bets for that game, including online and overseas sports books, was estimated at as little as $150 million and as much as $1 billion.

"This game was just as much of a swing, if not more," Avello said.

Although this was a Thursday night game compared to the Monday night game in Week 3, and Monday night games typically are bet on more, Avello said this game was particularly attractive to bettors.

All week, Avello said the 49ers were 7-point favorites. Then yesterday, the line at the Wynn moved by half points all the way up to 9 before settling back down at 8.

"If Harbaugh took the safety, this would have been an absolute disaster for us," Avello said. "We would have had to return all bets at 9, which were almost all Seahawks bets, and everything else from seven to eight and half were mostly 49ers bets, so they would have won."

USA Today betting analyst Danny Sheridan told ESPN.com that he estimates that $250 million to $300 million in total was bet worldwide on the game with an average of 65 percent of the spread bets on the 49ers.

Gambling insider Jimmy Vaccaro, who has been in the industry for 37 years, said that he had never seen a coach take points off the board other than a roughing the kicker penalty on a made field goal. But he is well aware of the human element of the game and the gambling world.

"With the Packers game, it was in the hands of the replacement refs and this time it was in the hands of Harbaugh's decision," said Vaccaro, who is now spokesman for William Hill North America, which sets the lines for 150 sports books in Nevada. "That's what makes sports betting so unique. There's always a human touch involved."

Vaccaro said he would bet "a billion dollars" that Harbaugh had no idea that his decision had any impact on gambling.

After the game, Harbaugh explained that simply kneeling on the ball would ensure that the game would be over, instead giving them to change to kick the ball after the safety. "Otherwise, they'll onside kick it and you give them a chance to win the game," Harbaugh said.

Despite a down economy, Vaccaro said sports gambling results like this have remained top of mind because it hasn't seen the dip that other industries have.

"No matter how bad the economy is, I've always said that two things stay steady: pizza sales and sports betting," Vaccaro said. "I don't know where they get the money from, but people have a hard time giving up that part of their life."

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/85...-betting-world

[CanuckG]

Agreed at the end. Tough economy got guys like Brock still firing fukkin bullets

[Brock Landers]

After the game, Harbaugh explained that simply kneeling on the ball would ensure that the game would be over, instead giving them to change to kick the ball after the safety. "Otherwise, they'll onside kick it and you give them a chance to win the game," Harbaugh said.

Yep...the mythical 9 point play in less than a minute

[wakeboardr886]

He did make the right call. Why take the risk of trying to defend another seattle drive and the health of your defensive players when you can just end the game.

[paco]

After the game, Harbaugh explained that simply kneeling on the ball would ensure that the game would be over, instead giving them to change to kick the ball after the safety. "Otherwise, they'll onside kick it and you give them a chance to win the game," Harbaugh said.

Yep...the mythical 9 point play in less than a minute

lions scored 14 points on the titans in 18 seconds

[Brock Landers]

lions scored 14 points on the titans in 18 seconds

yes, but different team (Seattle) and They were giving the ball back to SF..

Chances are 99.9% that SF gets the ball and takes a knee...

[trytrytry]

fun read...

[JakeLc]

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/n...y-safety-score


“It's not as big of a difference as people want to make it out to be,” said Jay Kornegay, director of the LVH Super Book. “We moved fast through the dead numbers (7.5, 8), For us, it was small difference with the result.”

[dudekid]

yes, but different team (Seattle) and They were giving the ball back to SF..

Chances are 99.9% that SF gets the ball and takes a knee...

and if they decline the safety and just take the ball, chances are 100% they get the ball and take a knee...it was clearly the right call lol

[Smoke]

Pizza sales and sports betting

Bang

[str]

yes, but different team (Seattle) and They were giving the ball back to SF..

Chances are 99.9% that SF gets the ball and takes a knee...

Chances are 100% if they decline it.

[meader99]

and if they decline the safety and just take the ball, chances are 100% they get the ball and take a knee...it was clearly the right call lol

Herm Edwards.....cough cough

[daneblazer]

"If Harbaugh took the safety, this would have been an absolute disaster for us," Avello said.

Go pound sand, nobody gives a fuk about your disasters after all the disasters you've handed out.

[meader99]

You know what...if you ignore the notion of s betting spread entirely, which is what coaches should do when making decisions, then harbsughs decision was the correct one. Granted, a loss was improbable even with the safety, but if the recovered an insides then it is possible. That's why the hawks took the safety in the first place, because it gave them a better chance to win. Harbaugh just agreed.

How did the Hawks "take" the safety? They were penalized in the end zone. It's not like they ran out of the end zone. Down two scores, 43 seconds, no timeouts and having to try an onside kick from the 20 having scored 6 points all night? Yeah, they were gonna pull that one off.

[yisman]

Onside kicking off a free kick is pretty damn difficult. It's not a live ball. It would have to bounce off the receiving team.

In any case, it's splitting hairs. Whichever way he went was fine.

Vaccaro said he would bet "a billion dollars" that Harbaugh had no idea that his decision had any impact on gambling.

yeah, because no one knows the spread.

Hey Vaccaro, I'd love to bet you that billion dollars you don't have.

[vyomguy]

why risk his players health when he has 100% won the game?...he made the right call there.

[floridagolfer]

If Harbaugh is really concerned that his team might not recover TWO onside kicks and give up TWO scores in 45 seconds, that's all anyone really needs to know about how good the 49ers aren't.

[onlooker]

Onside kicking off a free kick is pretty damn difficult. It's not a live ball. It would have to bounce off the receiving team.

I agree it is difficult to onside kick a ball just laying on the field, but correct me if I'm wrong, the ball is live after it goes 10 yards. It doesn't have to hit a receiving player.

[onlooker]

If Harbaugh is really concerned that his team might not recover TWO onside kicks and give up TWO scores in 45 seconds, that's all anyone really needs to know about how good the 49ers aren't.

It's not about that, it is about getting in the locker room with the win regardless. Declining and kneeling it, was the best and fastest way to get the W.

Accepting the safety gives the Seahawks life, even if it is basically impossible to comeback and win, but life none the less.

[d2bets]

How did the Hawks "take" the safety? They were penalized in the end zone. It's not like they ran out of the end zone. Down two scores, 43 seconds, no timeouts and having to try an onside kick from the 20 having scored 6 points all night? Yeah, they were gonna pull that one off.

Sorry, didn't watch the game and didn't have a penny on it. Regardless, Harbaugh made the decision that gave his team the highest chance to win. They had 0 chance to lose by taking the kneel down. If the Hawks kick off it is possibly they could recover the onsides, then score, then recover another onsides and kick a FG. Granted, that's 1 in 10,000, yet still 1>0.

[d2bets]

If Harbaugh is really concerned that his team might not recover TWO onside kicks and give up TWO scores in 45 seconds, that's all anyone really needs to know about how good the 49ers aren't.

Nonsense. Doesn't matter if he's concerned or not. You take the easiest and more sure path.

[boeing power]

It was the right call.

Move on.

[yisman]

I agree it is difficult to onside kick a ball just laying on the field, but correct me if I'm wrong, the ball is live after it goes 10 yards. It doesn't have to hit a receiving player.

I think you're right, it would be

I read something that made it sound like the rules would treat it like a punt, but looking further, it looks like it would be a live ball after 10 yards.


However, the receiving team could simply fair catch the ball.

So you'd have to kick it low and try to beat them to the ball as opposed to bouncing it (which is what you do when you can use a tee).

[yisman]

http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/playby...meId=240919006

Cleveland actually successfully did an onside kick after a safety in the 4th.

They recovered, but Kellen Winslow Jr. was injured on the play and they lost the game anyway.

[p19101]

It was the right call.

Move on.

^This, you have to be pretty dumb to say the opposite.

[zoo youk]

Sorry, didn't watch the game and didn't have a penny on it. Regardless, Harbaugh made the decision that gave his team the highest chance to win. They had 0 chance to lose by taking the kneel down. If the Hawks kick off it is possibly they could recover the onsides, then score, then recover another onsides and kick a FG. Granted, that's 1 in 10,000, yet still 1>0.

just being a stickler and playing devils advocate but Herm Edwards miracle in the meadowlands would disagree with u bout that.

but yeah the chances of them muffing a kneel down, hawks recovering taking it to the house, than onside kick and score td are remote.

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Sorry, didn't watch the game and didn't have a penny on it. Regardless, Harbaugh made the decision that gave his team the highest chance to win. They had 0 chance to lose by taking the kneel down. If the Hawks kick off it is possibly they could recover the onsides, then score, then recover another onsides and kick a FG. Granted, that's 1 in 10,000, yet still 1>0.

Agreed, 1 is greater than 0. The flaw in your math is in saying they have 0 chance to lose by taking the knee. Not true.

[philswin]

just being a stickler and playing devils advocate but Herm Edwards miracle in the meadowlands would disagree with u bout that.

but yeah the chances of them muffing a kneel down, hawks recovering taking it to the house, than onside kick and score td are remote.

Miracle in the meadowlands was not a kneel down. they could have kneeled down to end the game but they decided to hand off instead, they were already running the credits when they did that

[meader99]

Agreed, 1 is greater than 0. The flaw in your math is in saying they have 0 chance to lose by taking the knee. Not true.

[Jeffie]

After the game, Harbaugh explained that simply kneeling on the ball would ensure that the game would be over, instead giving them to change to kick the ball after the safety. "Otherwise, they'll onside kick it and you give them a chance to win the game," Harbaugh said.

Yep...the mythical 9 point play in less than a minute

Lol are you serious? why risk it at all.. when u kneel it you win the fawkin game why cant ppl get that thru there stupid heads.
Harbaugh isnt looking to try and win a tie breaker to get into the playoffs he wanted the guaranteed win.

[ttwarrior1]

nobody remembers p rivers?

they could fumble snap

with 2 point conversion they guarantee win even if they lose the onside kick and other team scores

[ttrace35]

This is a classic case of over-managing/coaching. Smart guys like to show how smart they are. He thinks he made a brilliant, ground-breaking call.

[Chi_archie]

"he's" watching video from Rams games right now in all likelihood

this call meant NOTHING to anyone other than gamblers

it really isn't a big deal, and if it wasn't a thurs, sun, or mon night game. There would only be 2-3 threads on it, and not 15

get over it people

[bleek88]

I pushed in this game cuz i knew it would be close. But harbaugh is a nut case this should of covered at -7

[thetrinity]

didnt really effect me at all this decision but does anyone else think that its more likely they fumble the snap up 7 sea recovers and scores a td then it is that in 43 seconds they get an onside kick and score then another onside kick and another score? seems foolish to not put urself up 2 scores with less then a minute IMO. if this game was 6 points and going to 8 seems like declining the safety wuld be smarter.