A perplexed pickle on this one.
All signs point to the S Carolina beating this Tiger team EXCEPT that its a night game in Death Valley.
Why shouldn't I take the 2.5 points or just lay it on the ML this weekend?
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10-09-12 03:00 AM #1
Gamecocks or Tigers??
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10-09-12 03:47 AM #2
Originally Posted by itchypickle
Itchy, you're a solid capper. You and I both know that it's LSU or nothing in this spot... Just my .02
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10-09-12 03:58 AM #3
Cocks getting praised all week long for beating UGA.
LSU steaming after losing to Florida.
Night game at Tiger Stadium (as you mentioned).
Gameday in Baton Rouge.
Les RARELY loses back to back games (I know Les is strange, but this is not a time to bet against him).
South Carolina has yet to face a defense this strong.
LSU offense (though very ineffective at times) will answer the bell with a solid running game in this one.
Oh yeah, it's a night game at Tiger Stadium (yes, it's that important of a factor to mention this twice).
Hope that helps Itchy, but you already know all that was stated above.... Gl with whomever you choose.
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10-09-12 05:30 AM #4
On a neutral turf, GameCocks are 4.5 better than LSU this season.
Game is in LSU, and they have a premium home turf advantage.
Usually, when handicapping games, as a rule of thumb, you give the home team an additional 3 or 3.5
LSU is one of those turfs where they get 4.5
Game is a pick if you ask me, I don't see an edge, I sort of like So. Carolina, not enough to bet this game.
Good luck
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10-09-12 05:30 AM #5
South Carolina
LSU talent way down
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10-09-12 05:40 AM #6
LSU is the only playable side, this line is a severe overreaction to last week. If someone had asked you two weeks ago if you would take LSU -2.5 at home at night in this spot, would you have taken it? Well, neither of the two results last week were really THAT surprising to me, I knew LSU was vulnerable at The Swamp after Towson was able to run on them the week before and I have commented several times on how much worse the Georgia defense looks this year compared to last year despite having all of the same guys. So last week's games should not have swayed this line that much.
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10-09-12 05:44 AM #7
They have 6 future NFL players on that D, as well as 2 future NFL backs.... Originally Posted by jjgold
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10-09-12 06:05 AM #8
am I the only one who thinks playing during the day/night has little to no bearing on outcome of the actual game?
couldnt their "trends" of this be merely coincidental and not to mention entirely different teams if you go years back.....
gamecocks....not an over-reaction
the over-reaction is on the idea that this LSU team is an ELITE team at all.....I forsee them with atleast 4 losses this season, sorry but this mettenberger guy is not one to be trusted, shit he couldnt even hold his own against auburn.....going 15-27, with 169 yards...no TDs.....
trust me, spurrier will have his D all over this ground attack, just like muschamp did, LSU will have to win thru the air or with trick playsLast edited by Smutbucket; 10-09-12 at 06:09 AM.
Points Awarded:
suicidekings gave Smutbucket 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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10-09-12 06:14 AM #9
Originally Posted by Smutbucket
am I the only one who thinks playing during the day/night has little to no bearing on outcome of the actual game? couldnt their "trends" of this be merely coincidental and not to mention entirely different teams if you go years back.....
gamecocks....not an over-reaction
the over-reaction is on the idea that this LSU team is an ELITE team at all.....I forsee them with atleast 4 losses this season, sorry but this mettenberger guy is not one to be trusted, shit he couldnt even hold his own against auburn.....going 15-27, with 169 yards...no TDs.....
trust me, spurrier will have his D all over this ground attack, just like muschamp did, LSU will have to win thru the air or with trick plays
Night games are tradition for LSU. They win over 75% of their home games at night (% is based on the last 35 yrs..)
Mettenberger is not the problem, the playcalling is. He'll be a lot more comfortable at home and I expect him to get helped out with a much better run game this time out.Last edited by CBASS; 10-09-12 at 06:17 AM.
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10-09-12 06:38 AM #10
Gamecocks set up for a letdown spot. End of the day this game is irrelevant to them. If they win they still have to beat the gators the next week to win the east and they are coming off of a big game against another team in the east. If they lose and then win out then they're still in the sec championship as a one loss team with a shot at beating Alabama (most likely) and playing in the national championship game.
Lsu loses this one then their shot at a national title is over.
If you think the gamecocks are clearly the better team then that's one thing but situationally this game favors LSU quite a bit.
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10-09-12 06:54 AM #11
Normally I'd agree 100% and I have said as much many times. This is just one of those weird unexplainable intangibles having to do with the atmosphere of Tiger Stadium at night as opposed to day games there. I think it is worth a full point in the line. Originally Posted by Smutbucket
am I the only one who thinks playing during the day/night has little to no bearing on outcome of the actual game? couldnt their "trends" of this be merely coincidental and not to mention entirely different teams if you go years back.....
Come on! I'd say they are still one of the top 5 or 6 teams in the country with a top 3 defense. Sounds pretty elite to me Originally Posted by Smutbucket
Um.... Originally Posted by Smutbucket
They lose one more game MAX and it is more likely to be Alabama than this game. Mettenberger is the best pure passer LSU has had in....in....well I can't remember the last time they had a pure passer. He has been held back by conservative play calling on first and second down, and no QB will succeed trowing only on third and long. I HOPE LSU throws the ball on early downs this game so Mettenberger can finally show what he has. Originally Posted by Smutbucket
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10-09-12 07:07 AM #12
LSU seems to be struggling to put pts on the board without a doubt S.Car is very good but they are not as good as everyone is making them out to be
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10-09-12 07:26 AM #13
Again goes back to the play-calling, I want to see Mett air it out. I am very surprised to see Sagarin has South Carolina as the second ranked team in the country right now and four points better than LSU on neutral. But that is all stat based though so does not factor in shitty play-calling holding LSU back. Les HAS to open up the offense, I just hope he is not too stubborn to do so. Originally Posted by Dux90
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10-09-12 07:41 AM #14
LSU couldn't even put away Towson, a division II team.
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10-09-12 08:39 AM #15
Gamecock fan here...pulling for USC...hope like hell they win...but all the situational stuff favors LSU.
Its a no play for me...but I think if you are going to bet a side, its LSU or nothing.
I would take a look at the under in this game.
Doc
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10-09-12 11:02 AM #16
I guess we will see on sat LT, I disagree with your statements, but were entitled to our opinions. Im glad to have some discussion on it.
My money will be on south carolina.....hoping to grab around +3.5/+4 though.....
good luck
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10-09-12 11:08 AM #17
Where do you guys see this line heading ?
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10-09-12 11:15 AM #18
ohio state and south carolina were the too easiest winners you will see all year last week.
but one thing to remember before you bet on this game.... these are college kids 18 and 19 year old punks you are betting on .. homefield advantage means a lot. These south carolina kids will be scared to death playing infront of 90,000 hostile drunk rednecks.
yes LSU has a horrible horrible horrible QB... guy is absolutely terrible. But remember the Vandy game that South Carolina played on the road???
LSU wins in a low scoring game. mark my words
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10-09-12 11:21 AM #19
they play just about all of their home games at night and about one a year during the day....night vs day is not a factor when capping this game Originally Posted by CBASS
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10-09-12 11:24 AM #20
Originally Posted by InTheDrink
dude you must not be familar with LSU if you think night vs day does not matter. IT MATTERS A TON. Ask spurrier if he would rather this game be at noon. If this game was at noon it would be a pick'em
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10-09-12 12:24 PM #21
LSU at home at night is an experience unmatched elsewhere....I hate them with a passion but if you've ever been down there for a night game....intimidating. People stomp on that old ass stadium and the ground literally shakes....they've been drinking Natural Light for about 36 hours leading up to kickoff and say what you want about fan bases....LSU has the biggest asssholes in the country. They get rowdy. Originally Posted by InTheDrink
If this game was in Columbia I'd be all over the Gamecocks but LSU's 12th man is bigger the Aggies tradition.
I've said all year this Tiger team just doesn't have the attitude of the past few years....Mettenberger isn't that great and he doesn't lead the team like he needs to. Connor Shaw for USC has improved a LOT since last season.
LSU has the edge for the front D line but not as great in the backfield....Clowney for S Carolina will get to the Tiger QB all night with the mix matched O line at LSU.
Wing, the punter for LSU is a game changer flipping the field position to help out so I think this will be one of those 13-10 17-13 games at best. Might just go with the Under as the play and stay away from the spread.
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10-09-12 12:27 PM #22
LSU BIG... This has been discussed...
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10-09-12 02:37 PM #23
this is what Im trying to figure out myself....wondering If I should take SC now or wait .....really have no clue myself....honestly I think maybe move in favor of SC so Im trying to be patient Originally Posted by dfish
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10-09-12 02:54 PM #24
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10-09-12 11:11 PM #25
LSU has lost one night game at home in the last 8 years.
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10-09-12 11:17 PM #26
if you go read what the seer posted in his thread about this game. its lsu. end of discussion. he makes the perfect point about this game
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10-09-12 11:46 PM #27
thanks for the link guyee Originally Posted by zoo youk
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10-09-12 11:54 PM #28
np dranker.
personally, this is what swayed me
"SC has been getting much better under Spurrier but I don't think they are ready to wallop Georgia at home & then go beat LSU on the road. The SC players have never played there either so they have no idea what it will be like. Everybody has been patting them on the back this week. It's tough for 18-22 yr old kids to refocus unless they are used to it"
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10-09-12 11:54 PM #29
SC +3 if available Tigers O is bad this year period.
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10-10-12 12:32 AM #30
funny how this swayed you, for the most part to me they are pretty absurd generalizations/assumptions, esp that last part, of course maybe he does have psyche powers/knows these players personally and can see their overconfidence, but I doubt this is really the case, especially with a coach like spurrier who stresses things like focus and preparation...... Originally Posted by zoo youk
I tend to stick to the game, the x's and o's, the numbers, Miles is 2-0 vs Spurrier, although in those 2 years its pretty evident Miles had a much superior team, I really believe spurrier takes this one, main reason is connor shaw, just trying to get at around +4 because I would be REAL confident with that many pts.......noto to mention florida and towson ran for over 175 yards + on this LSU team, and even gave up 80 yards to auburn, AUBURN, auburn couldnt even run for 40 yards on the arkansas def which is terrible against the run, oh ya and guess how LSU gave up a majority of their rush yards in that game? to grant enders, Towsons mobile QB, shaws and spurriers offense are gonna have more success against this LSU D, than the LSU O will be able to have on this SC D, LSU might win a close game, by making big plays on defense or special teams......
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10-10-12 12:35 AM #31
I'm a newby!
I would be very careful on playing LSU. They stink! They beat Towson 38 - 22 at home. (Towson is a 1AA team)
Usc is not Towson. Zach Mett is horrible. Based on actual stats...Lsu is the most overrated team in college football. I love USC here.
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10-10-12 01:20 AM #32
Gamecocks are a better team than LSU, I'm very confident in that.....They just are at this point in the season
However, the homefield and situational factors heavily favor LSU.....As most people have said. Will probably lay off or take a small shot on SC +ML. Tough game really from a betting standpoint.
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10-10-12 01:40 AM #33
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10-10-12 03:45 AM #34
Another thing....could this "trend" possibly be because LSU has played 75% of their home games at night against bad teams? Originally Posted by CBASS
the idea that this type of "trend" is used at all in your handicapping is absurd to me, and will never hold any sort of bearing in my handicapping.....I love the sbr community, lots of funny shit, plus we get to talk about sports, something Im passionate about but some of the things discussed/ "handicapping insights" are mostly bad ideas being regurgitated ....no one has the balls to stand up and say that stat is a garbage ass stat, of course if LSU covers, this terrible capping trend will be reinforced....but for all the wrong reasons.....
take Texas ML and USC ML, both at + money , your gonna be up units at end of day, plus you get to watch 2 good ass games.....
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10-10-12 04:39 AM #35
Originally Posted by Smutbucket
Another thing....could this "trend" possibly be because LSU has played 75% of their home games at night against bad teams? the idea that this type of "trend" is used at all in your handicapping is absurd to me, and will never hold any sort of bearing in my handicapping.....I love the sbr community, lots of funny shit, plus we get to talk about sports, something Im passionate about but some of the things discussed/ "handicapping insights" are mostly bad ideas being regurgitated ....no one has the balls to stand up and say that stat is a garbage ass stat, of course if LSU covers, this terrible capping trend will be reinforced....but for all the wrong reasons.....
take Texas ML and USC ML, both at + money , your gonna be up units at end of day, plus you get to watch 2 good ass games.....
You're a real bright one Smut. Being that LSU is in the SEC, that % includes conference games as well. And since you obviously don't have a fvckin' clue....LSU prefers night games at home, because it is TRADITION. They have a phrase known as: Saturday Night in Death Valley. It's where all the drunk cajuns party all day fvckin' long and then fill a 93,000 capacity stadium to the max and yell their azzes off for the home team. One of the most hostile environments in all of college football and not one player on that S. Caro. roster has played there before. I'd rather donate $ to my local Goodwill than donate $ to my book with those weakazz ML plays.Tell you what...take LSU -3 and thank me later.
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