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General to specific money line questions.
Hi,
In this thread I wish to learn about moneyline betting NFL and NCAAFB from folks who have more experience than me.
I'll start general and then get more specific.
1. What are your general thoughts on betting the ML vs. betting the spread?
2. Is the vig generally more or less in this form of betting?
Depends; have you established fair values for buying/selling points?
This is one of the reasons I am considering this method for betting.
My models spit out a% chance of winning. Without doing a mapping via hstorical values, it is not directly useful in betting the spread.
Why don't you open up SBR odds and look for yourself dumbassOriginally Posted by Spektre
Oh come on MDC, you are slipping.
Over a 9 hour TTFI (Time to First Insult) is way below your mean.
Unfortunately your TTFUI (Time to First Useful Information) is still waiting to be measured.
My shortcut for ncaaf is pointspread=9*ln(a / 1-a) where a is the % chance of winning and ln is the natural log. For nfl i use 7 rather than 9 to reflect the lower scoring in the pros. I derived this from a database of moneylines and spreads. Surpisingly totals had no discernable effect. This also works for basketball.
Ask a question that doesn't take 5 seconds for you to figure out yourself and I'll be glad to help.
451
452
8:30p
Dallas
N.Y. Giants
+3½ -120
-3½ +100
+4 -113
-4 +104
+3½ -110
-3½ -110
+3½ -110
-3½ -110
+3½ -110
-3½ -110
+3½ -110
-3½ -110
+4 -108
-4 +107
+4 -120
-4 -100
+3½ -105
-3½ -115
+3½ -108
-3½ -102
+3½ -110
-3½ -110
#
Time/TV
NFL FOOTBALL
Opener
Sunday, September 9, 2012
453
454
1:00p
Indianapolis
Chicago
+11 -125
-11 +105
+9½ -107
-9½ -101
+9 -110
-9 -110
+9 -110
-9 -110
+9½ -110
-9½ -110
+9½ -110
-9½ -110
+9½ -106
-9½ -101
+9 -110
-9 -110
+9½ -110
-9½ -110
+10½ -130
-10½ +110
+10 -125
-10 +105
455
456
1:00p
Philadelphia
Cleveland
-8 +100
+8 -120
-9 +106
+9 -115
-8 -110
+8 -110
-8 -110
+8 -110
-9 +100
+9 -120
-9 +105
+9 -125
-9 +109
+9 -115
-9 -100
+9 -120
-9 -110
+9 -110
-9 +105
+9 -125
-9 +110
+9 -130
457
458
1:00p
Buffalo
N.Y. Jets
+4½ -110
-4½ -110
+2½ +102
-2½ -110
+3 -125
-3 +105
+3 -125
-3 +105
+3 -130
-3 +110
+2½ -105
-2½ -115
+2½ +108
-2½ -113
+3 -120
-3 -100
+3 -125
-3 +105
+1 +110
-1 -130
+3 -130
-3 +110
459
460
1:00p
Washington
New Orleans
+10 -120
-10 +100
+7 -104
-7 -104
+7 -110
-7 -110
+7 -110
-7 -110
+7½ -120
-7½ +100
+7 -110
-7 -110
+9 -132
-9 +122
+7½ -110
-7½ -110
+7 -110
-7 -110
+8 -130
-8 +110
+9 -145
-9 +125
461
462
1:00p
New England
Tennessee
-7½ +115
+7½ -135
-6 +103
+6 -111
-6 -110
+6 -110
-6 -110
+6 -110
-6 -110
+6 -110
-6 -105
+6 -115
-6 +107
+6 -110
-6 -110
+6 -110
-6 -115
+6 -105
-7 +120
+7 -140
-6 -110
+6 -110
463
464
1:00p
Jacksonville
Minnesota
+4½ -110
-4½ -110
+4 -110
-4 +102
+3½ -110
-3½ -110
+3½ -110
-3½ -110
+3½ -110
-3½ -110
+3½ -110
-3½ -110
+4 -109
-4 +102
+4½ -110
-4½ -110
+3½ -110
-3½ -110
+3½ -110
-3½ -110
+3½ -110
-3½ -110
465
466
1:00p
Miami
Houston
+7½ -135
-7½ +115
+11½ +100
-11½ -108
+12½ -110
-12½ -110
+12½ -110
-12½ -110
+11½ -110
-11½ -110
+12½ -110
-12½ -110
+11½ +100
-11½ -105
+11 -110
-11 -110
+12½ -110
-12½ -110
+13½ -130
-13½ +110
+13 -125
-13 +105
467
468
1:00p
St. Louis
Detroit
+10 -130
-10 +110
+7 -111
-7 +103
+7 -110
-7 -110
+7 -110
-7 -110
+7 -110
-7 -110
+7 -115
-7 -105
+7 -110
-7 +103
+7 -110
-7 -110
+7 -105
-7 -115
+7½ -135
-7½ +115
+7 -110
-7 -110
469
470
1:00p
Atlanta
Kansas City
PK -120
PK +100
-3 +113
+3 -122
-3 +100
+3 -120
-3 +100
+3 -120
-2½ -115
+2½ -105
-3 +100
+3 -120
-3 +113
+3 -122
-2½ -110
+2½ -110
-2½ -115
+2½ -105
-2½ -115
+2½ -105
-3 +100
+3 -120
471
472
4:25p
San Francisco
Green Bay
+7½ -140
-7½ +120
+5 -110
-5 +102
+5 -110
-5 -110
+5 -110
-5 -110
+4½ -110
-4½ -110
+4½ -110
-4½ -110
+5½ -113
-5½ +106
+5½ -115
-5½ -105
+5 -110
-5 -110
+4½ -110
-4½ -110
+5 -110
-5 -110
473
474
4:25p
Carolina
Tampa Bay
-2½ -120
+2½ +100
-1 -120
+1 +111
-3 +110
+3 -130
-3 +110
+3 -130
-2½ -110
+2½ -110
-1 -125
+1 +105
-1 -120
+1 +111
-2½ -110
+2½ -110
-3 +100
+3 -120
-1 -125
+1 +105
-1 -128
+1 +108
475
476
4:25p
Seattle
Arizona
PK +105
PK -125
-2½ -114
+2½ +105
-3 +105
+3 -125
-3 +105
+3 -125
-2½ -115
+2½ -105
-3 +100
+3 -120
-2½ -114
+2½ +105
-2½ -115
+2½ -105
-3 -110
+3 -110
-2½ -120
+2½ +100
-3 +105
+3 -125
477
478
8:20p
Pittsburgh
Denver
+2½ -110
-2½ -110
+1 +110
-1 -119
+2 -110
-2 -110
+2 -110
-2 -110
+1½ -105
-1½ -115
+2 -105
-2 -115
+1 +110
-1 -118
+2 -110
-2 -110
+2 -110
-2 -110
+1 +105
-1 -125
+1 +100
-1 -120
#
Time/TV
NFL FOOTBALL
Opener
Monday, September 10, 2012
451
452
8:30p
Dallas
N.Y. Giants
+160
-185
+168
-187
+165
-195
+165
-195
+165
-185
+165
-190
+178
-180
+162
-200
+165
-195
+170
-185
+165
-190
#
Time/TV
NFL FOOTBALL
Opener
Sunday, September 9, 2012
453
454
1:00p
Indianapolis
Chicago
+425
-550
+400
-470
+370
-450
+370
-450
+380
-480
+390
-475
+410
-460
+350
-500
+400
-525
+380
-475
455
456
1:00p
Philadelphia
Cleveland
-380
+315
-430
+369
-400
+330
-400
+330
-400
+320
-395
+325
-400
+375
-400
+300
-440
+340
-440
+350
457
458
1:00p
Buffalo
N.Y. Jets
+210
-250
+125
-138
+120
-140
+120
-140
+115
-135
+115
-135
+129
-137
+130
-150
+120
-140
+118
-138
459
460
1:00p
Washington
New Orleans
+425
-550
+305
-350
+290
-350
+290
-350
+310
-380
+290
-350
+310
-345
+300
-400
+290
-370
+290
-350
461
462
1:00p
New England
Tennessee
-325
+265
-233
+208
-260
+220
-260
+220
-260
+220
-260
+220
-232
+224
-260
+220
-265
+215
-250
+210
463
464
1:00p
Jacksonville
Minnesota
+200
-240
+177
-197
+170
-200
+170
-200
+175
-210
+175
-205
+179
-195
+190
-230
+170
-200
+170
-200
465
466
1:00p
Miami
Houston
+280
-340
+545
-665
+550
-700
+550
-700
+475
-650
+520
-660
+550
-630
+400
-600
+575
-775
+550
-800
467
468
1:00p
St. Louis
Detroit
+365
-460
+285
-325
+285
-335
+285
-335
+280
-340
+285
-340
+288
-320
+300
-400
+300
-380
+270
-330
469
470
1:00p
Atlanta
Kansas City
-138
+118
-134
+121
-145
+125
-145
+125
-145
+125
-145
+125
-132
+130
-140
+120
-150
+130
-140
+120
471
472
4:25p
San Francisco
Green Bay
+260
-320
+206
-231
+200
-240
+200
-240
+195
-235
+200
-240
+212
-228
+200
-240
+195
-240
+190
-230
473
474
4:25p
Carolina
Tampa Bay
-150
+130
-129
+117
-140
+120
-140
+120
-135
+115
-130
+110
-128
+118
-130
+110
-140
+120
-132
+112
475
476
4:25p
Seattle
Arizona
+110
-130
-144
+130
-145
+125
-145
+125
-145
+125
-150
+130
-145
+134
-140
+120
-145
+125
-145
+125
-110
-110
477
478
8:20p
Pittsburgh
Denver
+110
-130
+115
-127
+110
-130
+110
-130
+110
-130
+110
-130
+116
-126
+110
-130
+110
-130
+113
-133
-110
-110
And this cutting and pasting relates the method of betting the spread vs betting the moneyline how?
For example, the moneyline:
+260
-320
Alhough this spread of numbers is 60 is it REALLY 6 times the expected vig of a spread -110 bet?
Wow.. EXPECTED vig?You're fukked pal.
Withdraw all your money from books and thank me later.
You bet when the line the book offers is better than the fair line you've made yourself.
What if the moneyline was
+100
-580
Is the vig REALLY that much greater than on -110/-110?
Or better yet, why not withdraw from the post MDC and not assume someone knows the answer to a question he is asking.
What exactly is you EV when operating under that assumption?
Who said I am playing at books yet?
Spektre, I think you should read these:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...rcentages.html
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...ical-hold.html
Why? He's clearly ready to nail Pinnacle's NFL lines on Sunday morning.
Oh there you go ASS-uming again MDC.
Good one pal
Get the fukk out of here
Can we get a Kindergarten subforum?
Thank you thank you.
Leading with the insults and then degenerating to 4 letters words. Weren't you complaining about someone else's English skills recently?
Thanks jglmartin, I'll read those.
Tip of the hat to the people who sent PMs. Very helpful.
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