1. #1
    BIGDAY
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    BIGDAY's UFC on FOX Card Saturday 8/4

    Going back to my money management. Wager on Mendes July 7th was out of line. Probably will never go that large again.

    Real shocker for some I'm sure...

    Jamie Varner +105 (2Units)
    I do like Varner quite a bit. I see him as a -150 favorite in this matchup.

    Ryan Bader +280 (1Unit)
    More of just an action/value play.

    Couple of wrastlers that I see get the fight to the ground. If they don't get it to the ground both are very heavy handed so don't count out a KO/TKO from either one of them.

    Should be a good night of fights on FOX.


  2. #2
    acl123
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    Cool

  3. #3
    Smoke
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    Pound Pound Pounding it!!

  4. #4
    Vaughany
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    Like the Worm as well BigDay...will probably play him and Lauzon by sub tho

  5. #5
    jakejd82
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    I personally think it is an awful match up for Bader. I dont think Bader will be able to get Machida down and if he does I dont think he will be able to keep him there. Machida will be too elusive on his feet and Bader is prone to leaving openings. Im a big fan of both guys so wont be disappointed either way. I definitely think there is good value on Varner and feel that he should be a slight favorite. Good luck on your bets BIGDAY !
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  6. #6
    rocky16
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    I like Lauzon and Machida here. Espcially Machida. Bader plods forward and wings overhand rights. I doubt he takes Machida down, and Machida is going to pick Bader apart. Bader will get desperate and leave him self open to a counter. Machida TKO, and rather easily IMO. Such a bad matchup for Bader.

    Varner is a mental midget, not sure how anyone can trust him to back him on a bet. Lauzon goes beast mose in the 1st, gets it to the mat and forces the tap. And it will be a fast tap so don't blink.

  7. #7
    rocky16
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocky16 View Post
    I like Lauzon and Machida here. Espcially Machida. Bader plods forward and wings overhand rights. I doubt he takes Machida down, and Machida is going to pick Bader apart. Bader will get desperate and leave him self open to a counter. Machida TKO, and rather easily IMO. Such a bad matchup for Bader.

    Varner is a mental midget, not sure how anyone can trust him to back him on a bet. Lauzon goes beast mose in the 1st, gets it to the mat and forces the tap. And it will be a fast tap so don't blink.
    *beast mode

  8. #8
    BIGDAY
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocky16 View Post
    *beast mode
    Listen pal, you want to talk about "beast mode", when I cap fights I compare nick names...

    Clearly Darth Bader whoops the Sh!t out of a gay ass dragon.

    GL with your wagers.

  9. #9
    rocky16
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    Listen pal, you want to talk about "beast mode", when I cap fights I compare nick names...

    Clearly Darth Bader whoops the Sh!t out of a gay ass dragon.

    GL with your wagers.

    Nice dude, J Lo wins every time.

  10. #10
    BIGDAY
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocky16 View Post
    Nice dude, J Lo wins every time.



  11. #11
    gabe
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    Just hope Varner pulls through. Got parlays riding on him and Davis.

  12. #12
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocky16 View Post
    I like Lauzon and Machida here. Espcially Machida. Bader plods forward and wings overhand rights. I doubt he takes Machida down, and Machida is going to pick Bader apart. Bader will get desperate and leave him self open to a counter. Machida TKO, and rather easily IMO. Such a bad matchup for Bader.

    Varner is a mental midget, not sure how anyone can trust him to back him on a bet. Lauzon goes beast mose in the 1st, gets it to the mat and forces the tap. And it will be a fast tap so don't blink.
    May well be right about Lauzon. But Varner's psychological issues seem to relate mostly to pressure and not dealing with his emotional vulnerability. In this fight (although not as much as against Barboza) there is no pressure on him...he's once again the underdog and taking the fight on a quick turnaround on short notice. This is a different situation to the Cerrone rematch were he got caught up in the whole feud thing and how everybody was saying he was a pussy for quitting in the first fight. After tht loss he lost the only thing that he had which was the belt so was a double whammy...now had no fans and no belt!

  13. #13
    milwaukee mike
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    thx for the tips guys

    i stink at mma handicapping unless i'm tailing

  14. #14
    rocky16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    May well be right about Lauzon. But Varner's psychological issues seem to relate mostly to pressure and not dealing with his emotional vulnerability. In this fight (although not as much as against Barboza) there is no pressure on him...he's once again the underdog and taking the fight on a quick turnaround on short notice. This is a different situation to the Cerrone rematch were he got caught up in the whole feud thing and how everybody was saying he was a pussy for quitting in the first fight. After tht loss he lost the only thing that he had which was the belt so was a double whammy...now had no fans and no belt!
    Well I believe he lost the belt prior to the Cerrone 2nd fight. He tapped damn quick when Benson locked in that guillotine. Looked like crap against Roller, and Cerrone made him look scared. He is coming off that big win against Barboza and def went for broke in that fight, just pressured the shit out of Edson, but I gotta believe that win couple with being on the main card on national TV will play with his head a bit. I just would never throw too much $ on Varner in any situation.

  15. #15
    El Nino
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    Varner's family was sitting behind me when he beat Barboza. They were going nuts talking about how he was focused and listened to his coaches and was following the game plan. The way they were saying it made it sound like most of the time he doesn't. Definitely a tough guy to back when you never know where his head is at. Went from having the belt and the best gym in AZ with a bunch of top notch wrestlers to nothing real quick. Have to expect Lauzon is focused after getting KTFO by Pettis.

  16. #16
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocky16 View Post
    Well I believe he lost the belt prior to the Cerrone 2nd fight. He tapped damn quick when Benson locked in that guillotine. Looked like crap against Roller, and Cerrone made him look scared. He is coming off that big win against Barboza and def went for broke in that fight, just pressured the shit out of Edson, but I gotta believe that win couple with being on the main card on national TV will play with his head a bit. I just would never throw too much $ on Varner in any situation.
    You are quite right. I meant to imply that winning that rematch would of vindicated that he deserved the belt when he initially retained it due to the DQ. Everybody was saying tht Cerrone would of won that fight had he not been DQ'd and tht Varner took the easy way out... I think tht got to him and when he went and loss and even got out-wrestled by Cerrone. Agree though that Varner is def a fighter that you shouldnt count on

  17. #17
    rocky16
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Niño View Post
    Varner's family was sitting behind me when he beat Barboza. They were going nuts talking about how he was focused and listened to his coaches and was following the game plan. The way they were saying it made it sound like most of the time he doesn't. Definitely a tough guy to back when you never know where his head is at. Went from having the belt and the best gym in AZ with a bunch of top notch wrestlers to nothing real quick. Have to expect Lauzon is focused after getting KTFO by Pettis.
    Cool story about Varner and his family. I agree. Varner is very skilled, but you never know where his heads at. Just a tough guy to back, but good luck to those guys who are betting him. I would make a small play on Lauzon or Varner str8/Lauzon by sub to hedge if I was forced to play this, but I'm staying away from this fight.

  18. #18
    rocky16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    You are quite right. I meant to imply that winning that rematch would of vindicated that he deserved the belt when he initially retained it due to the DQ. Everybody was saying tht Cerrone would of won that fight had he not been DQ'd and tht Varner took the easy way out... I think tht got to him and when he went and loss and even got out-wrestled by Cerrone. Agree though that Varner is def a fighter that you shouldnt count on
    Well Varner made me $ in that 1st fight against Donald so I was happy he took the easy way out. Haha.

  19. #19
    Crassus
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocky16 View Post
    Nice dude, J Lo wins every time.
    only 70% of the time.

  20. #20
    BIGDAY
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    0-2

    Congrats to those who backed Louzon and Machida.

  21. #21
    GunShard
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    It's tricky betting on Wrestlers. Sometimes they go full retard by keeping the fight standing, lol.

  22. #22
    JohnGalt2341
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    That was the best UFC Main Card I've seen in a long time. And it was free no less. Has there been a more exciting Main Card than that this year?

  23. #23
    El Nino
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    Lauzon/Varner fight has to be up there for FOY candidate. Non-stop back and forth, knockdowns, smooth transitions and a slick finish by Lauzon. The way he transitioned into the triangle with that sweep was beautiful. Varner wins this if he doesn't break his hand in the 2nd round. Have to question why he elected to go to the ground in the 3rd. He was having some success with his jab and the short elbows.

    Great night of fights indeed!

  24. #24
    jjgold
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    BigDay you Fukkin loser

    Stay out these threads now

    Your worse than Brock

    You went like 4-1 early in year and That was it

    Your like 4-17 since

    You killed my bankroll last night you fat fuk.

  25. #25
    CanuckG
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    BigDay you Fukkin loser

    Stay out these threads now

    Your worse than Brock

    You went like 4-1 early in year and That was it

    Your like 4-17 since

    You killed my bankroll last night you fat fuk.

  26. #26
    BIGDAY
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    BigDay you Fukkin loser

    Stay out these threads now

    Your worse than Brock

    You went like 4-1 early in year and That was it

    Your like 4-17 since

    You killed my bankroll last night you fat fuk.

    I knew there was a reason I went 0-2.

    Baldy, keep the negative comment toward me and you'll find out how it feels to be in a wrestling move called the bow and arrow pal.

  27. #27
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    I knew there was a reason I went 0-2.

    Baldy, keep the negative comment toward me and you'll find out how it feels to be in a wrestling move called the bow and arrow pal.
    haha

    fat fuk -800
    bald jew +660

  28. #28
    acl123
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    I knew there was a reason I went 0-2.

    Baldy, keep the negative comment toward me and you'll find out how it feels to be in a wrestling move called the bow and arrow pal.
    that sounds painful BigDayerer
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  29. #29
    TheCalculator
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    I knew there was a reason I went 0-2.

    Baldy, keep the negative comment toward me and you'll find out how it feels to be in a wrestling move called the bow and arrow pal.
    How about a Fireman's Carry over the balcony?

  30. #30
    kmarinouofm
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    coach is back on the yayo

  31. #31
    Dillonious Monk
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    To be fair, Varner broke his hand in the 2nd round and probably wouldn't have wen't for that takedown that he ****** himself with if his main weapon wasn't broke...and he probably would have won had it gone to a decision.

    I lost money on Varner but won money on the +500 Varner vs Lauzon FOTN

    You guys gotta watch out for those FOTN lines. Usually the main event is only a slight dog, but then all the others have great prices. If you spot a main event and/or a co-main that might not be that great, it might be smart to make a couple bets on some great looking fights that have nice prices.

  32. #32
    BIGDAY
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    Correct with Varner breaking his hand. Still think he should've been a fav here.

    No worries. UFC event this upcoming weekend. I'll bounce back no prob.

  33. #33
    Vaughany
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    BigDay, not made any bets on the wrestling? Surely on Burroughs on Friday? Made some nice dollar today from getting Vlasov at +250

  34. #34
    BIGDAY
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    Just some action. International is a little more tricky as the stylistic matchups vary quite a bit country to country.

    Hard for me not to weigh heavier into US wrestlers also. Kind of like my MN MMA wrastlers. Lol

    Rooting hard for boroughs later this week!!

  35. #35
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    BigDay, not made any bets on the wrestling? Surely on Burroughs on Friday? Made some nice dollar today from getting Vlasov at +250
    Vlasov beat the Armenian.

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