thanks for the extra 6 bucks and for the motivation to find/brush up an old "binomial distribution" spreadsheet i had almost forgotten about (i played roulette this time 'round...cuz i thought the "baccarat" gods would punish me for pressing my luck=taking them for granted)...
_________________
The genius behind SBR (all cainos actually) goes beyond marketing into the realm of "behavior modification" and is based on one simple fact:
**guys are suckers for three things...the promise of beer, points, and
...put the words "free" and/or "more" in front of any of these (explicitly or even just implicitly)...and you'll instantly convert an adult being into a mindless zombie-child
How many of us, that eventually "won" the 100 we were after, even noticed just how much we were down or were theoretically prepared to go down (probably MANY multiples of 100...in most cases we'd keep chasing if necessary till all the points in our kitty were gone or we'd hit our target)
....this kind of promo has a ratio of winners to losers of say 8:1, each with a net win of $100-ish...but the average loss of the losers would be typically MORE than 800 (given the fact that most of us will never specify at the outset the exact point where they would "say uncle"...and even if we did, we'd probably just violate it any way and keep going till either we hit the target or busted the account).
THIS psychological tendency (which i call "idiot-wiring") is why casinos consistently kill people...it's not with the house edge. Sharp customers (a tiny minority) have developed the ability to over-ride the idiot-wiring with mathematical-awareness of gaming situations...but most of us remain square idiots...especially if we sense that more beer/$/points/
are around the corner. And such hard-to-develop sharpness is not generally transferable to new situations ...so even the sharpest sport bettor, who always caps & shops carefully and never chases can be the biggest fish in the casino (=have no idea of the odds involved in the game and have no ability to stop other than "hit target or hit pavement").
__________________________
Can i buy shares in SBR?